Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on September 5, 2025, covering various agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil lacks continuous driving force and is waiting for a pullback; soybean oil is in a volatile adjustment; soybean meal may rebound following US soybeans, but beware of frost risks; soybean No.1 is in a rebound and volatile state; corn is in a volatile operation; sugar has a year - on - year decline in Brazilian exports; cotton requires attention to the situation of new crop listings; eggs have strong near - end gaming sentiment; live pigs have weak spot prices but strong far - end expectations; peanuts require attention to the listing of new peanuts [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's main contract closed at 9,368 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.24% increase and 9,402 yuan/ton at night with a 0.36% increase. Soybean oil's main contract closed at 8,410 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.52% decrease and 8,356 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.64% decrease. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 9,320 yuan/ton, and the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton [5] - **News**: MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a total estimated production of 1.85 million tons in August [6] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3,965 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.03% increase and 3,971 yuan/ton at night with a 0.13% increase. DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,048 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.29% decrease and 3,050 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.42% decrease. The daily trading volume of soybean meal was 6.7 million tons, and the inventory was 101.49 million tons [10] - **News**: As of September 2, about 16% of the US soybean - growing area was affected by drought. StoneX lowered its forecast for US soybean yield in 2025 to 53.2 bushels per acre, with an expected production of 4.257 billion bushels. On September 4, CBOT soybean futures mostly closed higher due to active technical buying [7][8][12] - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of +1, and soybean No.1 has a trend intensity of 0 [12] Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2511 closed at 2,210 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.59% increase and 2,214 yuan/ton at night with a 0.18% increase. C2601 closed at 2,194 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.50% increase and 2,197 yuan/ton at night with a 0.14% increase. The trading volume of the corn market increased, and the open interest decreased [14] - **News**: The northern corn collection and port prices remained stable, and the prices in Northeast China slightly decreased, while the prices in North China decreased steadily [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [16] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 15.7 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,920 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,533 yuan/ton [17] - **News**: India's monsoon precipitation was 8.8% higher than the long - period average. Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons. Brazil's sugar exports decreased in July and August. China's sugar imports in July were 740,000 tons [17] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [20] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 closed at 14,010 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.14% increase and 13,960 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.36% decrease. The spot price of cotton in North Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked variety increased by 20 yuan/ton to 15,267 yuan/ton [22] - **News**: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, and the cotton yarn market was generally trading. ICE cotton futures were in a narrow - range fluctuation [23] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2510 closed at 3,021 yuan/500 kg with a 1.41% increase, and Egg 2601 closed at 3,405 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.18% decrease. The spot prices in some regions increased [26] - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [26] Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 14,080 yuan/ton, 13,850 yuan/ton, and 15,640 yuan/ton respectively, with Guangdong's price decreasing by 200 yuan/ton [28] - **Market Logic**: There is still supply pressure in September and October. Consider 11 - 1 inverse spread intervention. Pay attention to the downward - driving force of the central price of March and May contracts. The July contract may have further policy regulation expectations. The short - term support and pressure levels of LH2601 are 13,500 yuan/ton and 14,500 yuan/ton respectively [30] - **Trend Intensity**: Live pigs have a trend intensity of 0 [29] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 7,700 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of PK510 and PK511 decreased. The trading volume and open interest of the peanut market changed [32] - **News**: In most peanut - producing areas, the supply was affected by rainfall, and the prices were generally stable. New peanuts are expected to be listed around late September [33] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production. It is recommended to use strategies like expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil and reverse arbitrage of 9 - 1 contracts. There is potential to go long at low levels before the fourth quarter [5][8]. - Soybean oil also has a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. There is an opportunity to go long in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to changes in palm oil inventory inflection points and US soybean oil biodiesel policy [7]. - Soybean meal and soybean futures prices are expected to adjust and fluctuate next week, waiting for the end - of - month US soybean acreage report [21]. - Corn is expected to run strongly. Although CBOT corn has fallen, wheat prices have risen and corn starch inventory has changed. The overall supply - demand balance of corn remains tight [39][45]. - The international sugar market is expected to consolidate at a low level, while the domestic sugar market is expected to rebound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Brazilian production and export rhythm and Indian industrial policies [69][71]. - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate. The policy of state reserve purchase provides support, but the inventory cycle in the second half of the year depends on the social circle rhythm. The LH2509 futures contract still has a short - term bullish sentiment [105][106]. - The peanut market is in a stalemate and fluctuating pattern. The futures market is mainly in a state of shock, and the lower side of the futures price has support. Attention should be paid to the peanut planting area and weather in the producing areas [117][118]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil - **Last Week's Performance**: Due to the sudden positive news of US biodiesel obligation volume and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the palm oil 09 contract rose 4.86% last week [4]. - **This Week's Outlook**: June rainfall in Malaysia is expected to be dry, with production estimated to be 1.7 - 1.75 million tons. There is a risk that production from July to August may be lower than last year. Exports are strong, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in June. The US biodiesel policy is positive for the international oil market. However, if production in Malaysia and Indonesia remains strong from July to August, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure from August to September. It is recommended to use spread strategies in the short term and consider going long at low levels before the fourth quarter [5]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Performance**: Affected by the US biodiesel obligation volume and the Middle East situation, the soybean oil 09 contract rose 4.75% last week [4]. - **This Week's Outlook**: The EPA's significant increase in the 2026 biomass diesel RVO is positive for US soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. Inventory may peak in July, and there is an opportunity to go long in the fourth quarter [6][7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Performance**: US soybean futures prices first rose and then fell. Domestic soybean meal and soybean futures prices were strongly volatile. The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week but were higher than expected. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate decreased week - on - week. Domestic soybean meal had high - volume trading in the far - month basis, and the Heilongjiang provincial reserve soybean auction was fully successful [17]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean are expected to adjust and fluctuate, waiting for the end - of - month US soybean acreage report [21]. Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices rose in the week of June 20. In the futures market, the price broke through and rose. The basis of the main contract weakened [39][40]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn fell due to increased rainfall in the US Midwest. Wheat prices rose, and imported corn auctions were suspended. Corn starch inventory decreased. The overall supply - demand balance of corn remains tight, and the price is expected to run strongly [41][45]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: In the international market, the net long position of funds in the New York raw sugar decreased significantly. In the domestic market, the spot price of Guangxi sugar groups decreased, and the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rose. The 24/25 sugar - making season in China had an increase in production and sales [69][70]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The international sugar market is expected to consolidate at a low level, while the domestic sugar market is expected to rebound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Brazilian production and export rhythm and Indian industrial policies [71][102]. Live Pigs - **This Week's Review**: The spot price of live pigs was strongly volatile. The supply was tight, and the demand was slightly improved compared with the beginning of the month. The futures price of live pigs was also strongly volatile [103][104]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The spot price is expected to fluctuate. The state reserve purchase policy provides support, but the inventory cycle in the second half of the year depends on the social circle rhythm. The LH2509 futures contract still has a short - term bullish sentiment [105][106]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: The spot price of peanuts rose, but the momentum for continuous price increase was insufficient. The futures price fluctuated [117]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is in a stalemate and fluctuating pattern. The futures market is mainly in a state of shock, and the lower side of the futures price has support. Attention should be paid to the peanut planting area and weather in the producing areas [118].