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油脂油料早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Conab anticipates Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to rise by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons, with the planting area expanding by 3.7% to 49.08 million hectares; corn production is expected to be 138.28 million tons, and the planting area is estimated at 22,630 tons [1]. - Conab predicts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean exports to reach a record 112.12 million tons, mainly driven by exports to China; corn exports are expected to be 4.65 million tons [1]. - The USDA reports that for the week ending September 11, US 2025/26 market - year soybean export sales net increased by 92.30 million tons, meeting expectations; exports loaded were 83.71 million tons, up 31% from the previous week and 70% from the four - week average [1]. - China's customs data shows that in August, palm oil imports were 340,000 tons (up 16.5% year - on - year), soybean oil imports were 100,000 tons (up 113.9% year - on - year), and rapeseed and mustard oil imports were 140,000 tons (up 18.7% year - on - year) [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Conab's first forecast for the 2025/2026 crop year shows an increase in Brazil's soybean production and planting area, and a slight decrease in corn production; soybean and corn exports are expected to rise [1]. - The USDA's export sales report indicates the situation of US soybean export sales and shipments for the week ending September 11 [1]. - China's customs data reveals the import volume and year - on - year changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed and mustard oil in August and from January to August [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 12 to September 18, 2025, are presented, showing price fluctuations [2]. Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis - Not provided with specific content Oilseed and Oil Futures Price Spreads - Not provided with specific content
油脂油料早报-20250806
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 03:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sales reached 16.8% of the expected output, compared to 22.5% in the same period last year; 2024/25 soybean sales reached 78.4% of the expected output, compared to 82.2% in the same period last year [1] - From July to August 3, 2025 (2025/26 season), the EU's soybean imports were 970,000 tons, compared to 1.3 million tons in the same period of the previous year; the EU's soybean meal imports were 1.51 million tons, lower than 1.92 million tons in the same period last year; the EU's palm oil imports were 160,000 tons, compared to 360,000 tons in the same period of the previous year; the EU's rapeseed imports were 260,000 tons, compared to 430,000 tons in the same period of the previous year [1] - StoneX predicts that the US soybean production in 2025 will reach 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre; the US corn production in 2025 will be 16.323 billion bushels, with an average yield of 188.1 bushels per acre, higher than the latest USDA forecasts [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sales reached 16.8% of the expected output, 2024/25 sales reached 78.4% of the expected output [1] - From July to August 3, 2025, the EU's soybean imports were 970,000 tons, soybean meal imports were 1.51 million tons, palm oil imports were 160,000 tons, and rapeseed imports were 260,000 tons [1] - StoneX predicts US 2025 soybean production of 4.425 billion bushels and corn production of 16.323 billion bushels, higher than USDA forecasts [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 30 to August 5, 2025 are presented [2] Protein Meal Basis - No specific content provided [3] Oil Basis - No specific content provided [4] Oilseed Futures Price Spreads - No specific content provided [7]
油脂油料早报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 02:22
Group 1: USDA Report Forecast - The average forecast of analysts is that the soybean planting area in the United States in 2025 will be 83.655 million acres, with a forecast range between 82.5 - 85.3 million acres. The USDA predicted the soybean planting area to be 83.495 million acres in the March 31 report. The USDA will release the planting area report at 00:00 on July 1, Beijing time [1]. - Analysts expect the corn planting area in the United States in 2025 to be 95.35 million acres, with a forecast range between 93.75 - 96.8 million acres. The March 31 planting intention report estimated it to be 95.326 million acres [1]. Group 2: Brazilian Soybean Exports - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in June will reach 14.99 million tons, higher than the previous week's estimate of 14.36 million tons [1]. Group 3: EU Imports - As of June 22, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season (starting from July) have reached 2.76 million tons, lower than 3.41 million tons in the same period last year. The EU's soybean imports have reached 13.79 million tons, higher than 12.89 million tons in the same period last year. The EU's rapeseed imports total 7.16 million tons, higher than 5.59 million tons in the same period last year. The EU's soybean meal imports have reached 18.88 million tons, higher than 14.93 million tons in the same period last year [1]. Group 4: Indonesian Palm Oil - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) data shows that Indonesia exported 1.78 million tons of palm oil (including refined products) in April, a 38.14% decrease from 2.18 million tons in the same period last year. The decline in exports is due to reduced demand from the EU, India, the US, Pakistan, and Bangladesh [1]. - Indonesia's crude palm oil production in April was 4.48 million tons, higher than 4.39 million tons in March. Palm oil inventory at the end of April increased by 50% to 3.04 million tons, the highest level since May last year, due to decreased exports [1]. Group 5: Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/06/18 | 2900 | 2560 | 8300 | 8780 | 9910 | | 2025/06/19 | 2910 | 2560 | 8380 | 8770 | 9900 | | 2025/06/20 | 2900 | 2550 | 8390 | 8740 | 9900 | | 2025/06/23 | 2860 | 2530 | 8340 | 8670 | 9870 | | 2025/06/24 | 2850 | 2530 | 8200 | 8510 | 9710 | [1][6]
年度大豆产量预估上调
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 05:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange raised the forecast for the country's 2024/25 soybean production to 4,850 tons, up from the previous 4,550 tons, and predicted the 2025/26 wheat production to be 2,100 tons, higher than the 2,010 tons in 2024/25 [1] - If China and the US fail to resolve trade disputes, US soybean exports are expected to decrease by 20%, and the price paid to farmers will decline [1] - Indonesia increased the special export tax on crude palm oil from 7.5% to 10% of the reference price of crude palm oil, and adjusted the special export tax on refined palm oil products to 4.75%-9.5% [1] - India's palm oil imports in a certain month decreased by 24.29% month-on-month, while soybean oil imports increased by 1.6% and sunflower oil imports decreased by 5.5% [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Annual Production Forecast - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production forecast was raised to 4,850 tons, and the 2025/26 wheat production forecast is 2,100 tons [1] US Soybean Exports - If trade disputes remain unresolved, US soybean exports may drop from the initial forecast of 1.865 billion bushels to 1.5 billion bushels, and the average price paid to farmers is expected to fall to $9.10 per bushel in 2025/26 [1] Indonesia's Palm Oil Policy - Indonesia increased the special export tax on crude palm oil and adjusted that on refined palm oil products, aiming to raise funds for biodiesel blending and other projects [1] India's Oilseeds Imports - India's palm oil imports decreased by 24.29% month-on-month, soybean oil imports increased by 1.6%, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 5.5% [1] Spot Prices - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the spot prices of various oilseeds and oils in different regions showed fluctuations [2]