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油脂油料早报-20260327
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 01:25
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production and exports are expected to reach record highs, further consolidating Brazil's dominant position in the global soybean market, while the US share has declined but remains an important player [1] - The US soybean and soybean meal export sales in the week ending March 19, 2026, were higher than expected [1] - The palm oil production in Malaysia from March 1 - 25, 2026, decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - In the week ending March 19, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 66.89 million tons, up 124% from the previous week and 89% from the four - week average, with market expectations of 20 - 50 million tons. Exports to the Chinese mainland net increased by 26.3 million tons. The export shipment was 134.42 million tons, up 48% from the previous week and 45% from the four - week average, with 66.5 million tons shipped to the Chinese mainland. New sales were 68.02 million tons for the current market year and 2.7 million tons for the next market year [1] - In the week ending March 19, US current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 50.76 million tons, up 130% from the previous week and 123% from the four - week average, with market expectations of 15 - 35 million tons. Next - year export sales net increased by 12.16 million tons, with market expectations of 0 - 5 million tons. The export shipment was 37.95 million tons, down 5% from the previous week but up 2% from the four - week average. New sales were 51.69 million tons for the current market year and 12.16 million tons for the next market year [1] Brazilian Soybean Situation - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record 182 million tons, accounting for 42.2% of global production (a record high share, compared to 30.3% a decade ago). Exports are expected to reach 112 million tons, accounting for 59.2% of global soybean trade (almost the same as in 2022/23, compared to 38.8% a decade ago). As of March 18, 64% of the nearly 50 million hectares of planted area had been harvested [1] - In the 2025/26 season, US soybean production is expected to be 116 million tons, accounting for 26.9% of global production (down from 33.8% in 2015/16). Exports are expected to be 42.9 million tons, accounting for 22.6% of global exports (down from 39.8% a decade ago) [1] Malaysian Palm Oil Situation - From March 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 11.21% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area down 9.74% and the oil extraction rate down 0.28% [1] Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products (including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from March 20 - 26, 2026, are presented in a table, showing price fluctuations during this period [2]
油脂油料早报-20260312
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 02:18
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The estimated net increase in US soybean export sales for the week ending March 5 is 25 - 90 million tons, with 25 - 80 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 10 million tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - The estimated net increase in US soybean meal export sales is 15 - 40 million tons, with 15 - 35 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 5 million tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - The estimated net change in US soybean oil export sales is a decrease of 1 million tons to an increase of 1.5 million tons, with a decrease of 1 million tons to an increase of 1.5 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange maintains its 2025/26 soybean production forecast at 48 billion tons due to February's rainfall [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 10, 2026, increased by 1.55% month - on - month, with a 4.29% increase in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.52% decrease in oil extraction rate [1] - The Middle East conflict has pushed up shipping and insurance costs, leading to a slowdown in new palm oil export orders and potentially increasing Indonesia's inventory and pressuring palm oil prices [1] - Since the conflict began, palm oil has lost its price advantage compared to soybean oil and sunflower oil, with its price increase exceeding that of its competitors [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Imported Soybean Futures Crushing Profit - No relevant content [3] Fat and Oil Import Profit - No relevant content [5] Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from March 5 - 11, 2026, are provided [8] Protein Meal Basis - No relevant content Fat and Oil Basis - No relevant content Fat and Oil Futures Price Spreads - No relevant content
油脂油料早报-20260306
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-06 03:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on the export sales and shipments of US soybeans and soybean meal, the export volume of Brazilian soybeans, and the production forecasts of Brazilian soybeans from different consulting firms, as well as the planting intentions of Canadian rapeseed [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - From February 26th, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 383,500 tons, a 6% decrease from the previous week and a 20% decrease from the four - week average. Market expectations were for a net increase of 300,000 - 1,000,000 tons. Exports to the Chinese mainland net increased by 153,100 tons. The export shipment was 1,119,500 tons, a 38% increase from the previous week and a 3% decrease from the four - week average. Exports to the Chinese mainland were 669,100 tons. The new sales of current - market - year soybeans were 393,800 tons, and 0 tons for the next market year [1]. - From February 26th, US current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 255,800 tons, a 5% decrease from the previous week and a 31% decrease from the four - week average. Market expectations were for a net increase of 200,000 - 450,000 tons. The export shipment was 261,500 tons, a 44% decrease from the previous week and a 30% decrease from the four - week average. The new sales of current - market - year soybean meal were 327,200 tons, and 0 tons for the next market year [1]. - Brazil exported 7,113,749.80 tons of soybeans in February, a 11% year - on - year increase. The daily average export volume was 395,208.32 tons, a 23% year - on - year increase [1]. - Agroconsult expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 183.1 million tons, an 850,000 - ton increase from the initial forecast. If confirmed, production will grow by 6.4% and set a new record [1]. - AgResource estimates Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to be 182.43 million tons [1]. - Canadian farmers intend to increase rapeseed planting by 1.0% in 2026, reaching 21.8 million acres. Before the report, traders expected 22.3 million acres on average [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from February 27th to March 5th are presented in the report [1].
油脂油料早报-20260213
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 01:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean and soybean meal export sales and shipment data for the week ending February 5th showed mixed results, with soybean exports falling short of expectations and soybean meal exports meeting expectations [1] - Conab raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, exports, and yield [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1 - 10th decreased, and the country raised the reference price for March crude palm oil while keeping the export tariff unchanged [1] - China extended the anti - dumping investigation period on Canadian rapeseed imports until March 9, 2026 [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - U.S. soybean export sales net increase for the week ending February 5th was 28.31 million tons, less than the expected 30 - 110 million tons. Exports to the Chinese mainland increased by 28.61 million tons. Export shipments were 112.88 million tons, a 19% decrease from the previous week and a 20% decrease from the four - week average. New sales were 37.76 million tons for the current market year and 0.13 million tons for the next market year [1] - U.S. soybean meal export sales net increase for the week ending February 5th was 35.7 million tons, meeting the expected range of 20 - 45 million tons. Export shipments were 32.64 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the four - week average. New sales were 38.87 million tons for the current market year and 0 million tons for the next market year [1] - A private exporter reported selling 108,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for the 2025/2026 market year [1] Production Forecast - Conab expected Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record - high 177.98 million tons, up from the January forecast of 176.12 million tons. The yield was expected to be 3,675 kg/ha, up from 3,620 kg/ha in January, and exports were expected to be 112.19 million tons, up from 108.18 million tons in January [1] Palm Oil Information - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1 - 10th, 2026 were 273,472 tons, a 16.10% decrease from the same period last month [1] - Malaysia raised the reference price of March crude palm oil to 3,896.09 Malaysian ringgit per ton (996.95 US dollars), while keeping the export tariff at 9%. The February reference price was 3,846.84 Malaysian ringgit per ton [1] Anti - Dumping Investigation - China extended the anti - dumping investigation period on Canadian rapeseed imports to March 9, 2026. The Ministry of Commerce will make an objective and fair final ruling based on facts and evidence [1] Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/02/06 | 3030 | 2440 | 8500 | 8980 | 9920 | | 2026/02/09 | 3020 | 2430 | 8500 | 8960 | 9900 | | 2026/02/10 | 3020 | 2430 | 8480 | 8890 | 9870 | | 2026/02/11 | 3060 | 2440 | 8490 | 8850 | 9880 | | 2026/02/12 | 3060 | 2450 | 8490 | 8720 | 9860 | [2]
油脂油料早报-20260212
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 02:49
Group 1: Overnight Market Information - As of the week ending February 5, US soybean export sales are estimated to increase by 30 - 120 tons net, with 30 - 110 tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 10 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - US soybean meal export sales are estimated to increase by 20 - 45 tons net for the 2025 - 26 season, and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - US soybean oil export sales are estimated to decrease by 1 to increase by 1.6 tons net for the 2025 - 26 season, and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] Group 2: Production Forecasts - The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina has raised its forecast for the 2025/26 soybean production to 48 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from the previous estimate [1] - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from February 1 - 10, 2026, decreased by 7.58% month - on - month, with a 9.16% decrease in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.30% increase in oil extraction rate [1] - CIMB Securities expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to decline slightly by 1% to 2.78 million tons in February [1] - GAPKI officials predict that Indonesia's crude palm oil production will increase by 2% - 3% in 2026 after an 8% increase in 2025 to 51.98 million tons [1] - Julian McGill of Glenauk Economics says that palm oil production growth will slow in 2026, with Indonesia's production expected to increase by 600,000 tons and Malaysia's to drop to 19.7 million tons [1] Group 3: Price and Basis Information - The table shows the spot prices of bean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from February 5 - 11, 2026 [7] - There are mentions of protein meal basis and grease basis, but no specific data is provided [8] - There is a mention of grease and oil futures price spread, but no specific data is provided [11] - There is a mention of grease import profit, but no specific data is provided [13]
油脂油料早报-20260206
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-06 01:39
Group 1: Report Core View - From January 22 - 29, US soybean export sales net increase was 43.74 million tons, in line with expectations; export shipments were 138.77 million tons, up 9% from the previous week and 4% from the four - week average; new sales for the current market year were 44.46 million tons, and 0.04 million tons for the next market year [1] - From January 22 - 29, US soybean meal export sales net increase was 38.03 million tons, in line with expectations; export shipments were 30.78 million tons, down 7% from the previous week and 24% from the four - week average; new sales for the current market year were 42.35 million tons, and 0 for the next market year [1] - Anec forecasts Brazil's soybean exports in February to be 11.42 billion tons, a significant increase from 9.73 billion tons in the same period last year; soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.63 billion tons, compared to 1.5 billion tons last year [1] - Secex data shows Brazil exported 1,876,531.75 tons of soybeans in January, a 75.51% increase year - on - year [1] - MPOA data indicates Malaysia's crude palm oil production in January decreased 14.03% month - on - month to 1.57 billion tons [1] - Analysts estimate Canada's rapeseed inventory as of December 31, 2025, to be 15.758 billion tons, up from 13.223 billion tons at the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 30 to February 5, 2026, are presented in a table [2] Group 3: Others - There are mentions of protein meal basis, grease basis, and grease and oil futures price spreads, but no specific data is provided [2][5][9]
油脂油料早报-20260205
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 01:37
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Before the USDA's February agricultural product supply - demand report, analysts made various predictions about soybean production and inventory in 2025 - 26, including those of the US, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as global soybean inventory [1]. - In the week ending January 29, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are expected to increase within certain ranges [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to end ten consecutive months of increase in January due to decreased production and increased exports [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Soybean Production and Inventory Forecast - The average forecast for the US 2025 - 26 soybean year - end inventory is 347 million bushels, with a forecast range of 265 - 375 million bushels, compared to the 350 million bushels predicted in the January report [1]. - The average forecast for Brazil's 2025 - 26 soybean production is 179.39 million tons, with a forecast range of 178 - 181.6 million tons, compared to 178 million tons in the January report [1]. - The average forecast for Argentina's 2025 - 26 soybean production is 48.38 million tons, with a forecast range of 47 - 50.5 million tons, compared to 48.5 million tons in the January report [1]. - The average forecast for the global 2025 - 26 soybean year - end inventory is 125.3 million tons, with a forecast range of 121.8 - 127 million tons, compared to 124.41 million tons in the January report [1]. US Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil Export Sales Forecast - As of the week ending January 29, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 40 - 165 million tons, with the current market year expected to increase by 40 - 160 million tons and the next market year by 0 - 5 million tons [1]. - US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 25 - 50 million tons, all in the current market year [1]. - US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 2.5 million tons, all in the current market year [1]. Malaysia Palm Oil Situation - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to drop to 2.91 million tons in January, a 4.64% decrease from December [1]. - Palm oil production is expected to drop 12% to 1.61 million tons, the third consecutive month of decline but still possibly the highest January production since 2019 [1]. - Palm oil product exports are expected to increase 7.48% to 1.42 million tons, the second consecutive month of growth [1]. Price and Basis Information - The report provides historical data on import crushing profits of Brazilian soybeans, import profits of various oils, spot prices of oils and meals, basis of protein meals, basis of oils, and various price spreads in the oil and oilseed market [1].
油脂油料早报-20260129
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-29 01:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending January 22, US soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 40 - 190 million tons, with 40 - 180 million tons in the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 10 million tons in the 2026 - 27 season [1] - US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 22.5 - 50 million tons in the 2025 - 26 season, and 0 tons in the 2026 - 27 season [1] - US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0 - 2.6 million tons in the 2025 - 26 season, and 0 tons in the 2026 - 27 season [1] - The predicted value of Australia's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season is raised by 10% to 7.2 billion tons, with an estimated range of 7 - 7.4 billion tons [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export sales forecast: 40 - 190 million tons (40 - 180 million tons in 2025 - 26, 0 - 10 million tons in 2026 - 27) [1] - US soybean meal export sales forecast: 22.5 - 50 million tons in 2025 - 26, 0 tons in 2026 - 27 [1] - US soybean oil export sales forecast: 0 - 2.6 million tons in 2025 - 26, 0 tons in 2026 - 27 [1] - Australia's rapeseed production forecast: increased by 10% to 7.2 billion tons, range 7 - 7.4 billion tons [1] Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/22 | 3070 | 2400 | 8600 | 8910 | 9840 | | 2026/01/23 | 3070 | 2390 | 8570 | 8880 | 9810 | | 2026/01/26 | 3070 | 2430 | 8660 | 9060 | 9990 | | 2026/01/27 | 3070 | 2430 | 8670 | 9210 | 10130 | | 2026/01/28 | 3070 | 2460 | 8740 | 9240 | 10160 | [4] Protein Meal Basis - Not detailed in the provided content [5] Oil Basis - Not detailed in the provided content [5] Oil and Oilseed Futures Spreads - Not detailed in the provided content [7]
油脂油料早报-20251224
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 01:04
Group 1: Overnight Market Information - From the week ending December 11, US soybean export sales increased by a net 2.4247 million tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean export sales increased by a net 2.3962 million tons, up 54% from the previous week and 69% from the four - week average. Market estimates were for a net increase of 1.8 - 2.9 million tons. Exports to the Chinese mainland increased by a net 1.383 million tons. The export shipment of US soybeans was 721,300 tons, down 33% from the previous week and 31% from the four - week average. Exports to the Chinese mainland were 202,000 tons. New sales of current - market - year soybeans were 2.4189 million tons, and new sales of next - market - year soybeans were 285,000 tons [1] - From the week ending December 11, US soybean meal export sales increased by a net 626,900 tons, higher than expected. Current - market - year soybean meal export sales increased by a net 616,500 tons, up 124% from the previous week and 102% from the four - week average. Market estimates were for a net increase of 275,000 - 550,000 tons. The export shipment of US soybean meal was 335,900 tons, up 14% from the previous week and down 5% from the four - week average. New sales of current - market - year soybean meal were 662,200 tons, and new sales of next - market - year soybean meal were 104,000 tons [1] - An official from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said on Tuesday that the ministry had signed a decree to allocate 15.65 million kiloliters of palm - oil - based biodiesel for its fuel blending program in 2026. Of the total allocation, 7.45 million kiloliters will be used for the Public Service Obligation (PSO), covering industries such as public transportation, and its sales will be subsidized by the national palm oil fund. The non - PSO allocation is 8.2 million kiloliters and will be sold at market prices. Indonesia's palm oil fuel allocation in 2025 was 15.6 million kiloliters, slightly lower than next year [1] Group 2: Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/17 | 3040 | 2500 | 8310 | 8370 | 9470 | | 2025/12/18 | 3020 | 2510 | 8270 | 8330 | 9420 | | 2025/12/19 | 3010 | 2490 | 8150 | 8250 | 9230 | | 2025/12/22 | 3020 | 2510 | 8230 | 8380 | 9260 | | 2025/12/23 | 3020 | 2520 | 8240 | 8460 | 9420 | [1] Group 3: Other Information - The report also mentions the precipitation conditions in major producing countries, import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, and import profit of oils and fats, as well as protein meal basis, oils and fats basis, and oils and fats futures price spreads, but no specific data is provided in the given content [1]
油脂油料早报-20251212
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 01:38
1. Core Insights - US soybean export sales net increase was 695,600 tons in the week ending November 13, at the lower end of the forecast range, up 36% from the previous week and down 35% from the four - week average, with a net decrease of 100,000 tons in exports to the Chinese mainland; exports were loaded at 1,552,800 tons, up 67% from the previous week and 24% from the four - week average; new sales were 812,500 tons for the current market year and 0 tons for the next market year [1] - US soybean meal export sales net increase was 357,900 tons in the week ending November 13, in line with expectations, up 283% from the previous week and down 4% from the four - week average; exports were loaded at 415,800 tons, up 92% from the previous week and 44% from the four - week average; new sales were 377,700 tons for the current market year and 0 tons for the next market year [1] - Conab lowered the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production by about 550,000 tons to 177.12 million tons, but it would still set a record high if the forecast came true; the estimated export volume was 112 million tons [1] - BGE estimated Brazil's 2025 soybean production at 165.96 million tons, a 14.5% year - on - year increase; the 2026 production was estimated to increase by 1.0% compared to the 2025 forecast [1] - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 6.87% month - on - month, with a 7.24% increase in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.07% decrease in oil extraction rate [1] 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Private exporters reported sales of 226,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations and 264,000 tons to China for the 2025/2026 market year [1] US Soybean and Soybean Meal Export Sales - In the week ending November 13, US soybean export sales and loading data showed specific changes compared to the previous week and four - week average, with a net decrease in exports to the Chinese mainland [1] - In the same week, US soybean meal export sales and loading data also showed significant changes compared to the previous week and four - week average [1] Brazil's Soybean Production and Export Forecast - Conab adjusted Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production and export forecasts due to irregular rainfall in some areas last month [1] - BGE estimated Brazil's 2025 and 2026 soybean production, showing year - on - year and sequential increases [1] Malaysia's Palm Oil Production - Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 10, 2025, had a month - on - month increase, along with changes in fresh fruit bunch yield and oil extraction rate [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions from December 5 - 11, 2025, were provided [1]