油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/13 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 2月5日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增28.31万吨，不及预期 USDA出口销售报告显示，2月5日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增28.18万吨，较之前一周减少36%，较 前四周均值减少80%。市场预估为净增30-110万吨。其中，对中国大陆出口销售净增28.61万吨。 当周，美国大豆出口装船112.88万吨。较之前一周减少19%，较前四周均值减少20%。其中，对中国大陆出口装船 74.61万吨。 当周，美国当前市场年度大豆新销售37.76万吨，下一市场年度大豆新销售0.13万吨。 2月5日止当周美国豆粕出口销售合计净增35.7万吨，符合预期 USDA报告显示，2月5日止当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕出口销售净增35.7万吨，较之前一周减少4%，较前四周均值 减少10%。市场预估为净增20-45万吨。 当周，美国豆粕出口装船32.64万吨。较之前一周增加8%，较前四周均值减少8%。 当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕新销售38.87万吨，下一市场年度豆粕新销售0万吨。 民间出口商报告向埃及出售销售10.8万吨大豆 USDA公布，民 ...

Group 1: Overnight Market Information - As of the week ending February 5, US soybean export sales are estimated to increase by 30 - 120 tons net, with 30 - 110 tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 10 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - US soybean meal export sales are estimated to increase by 20 - 45 tons net for the 2025 - 26 season, and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - US soybean oil export sales are estimated to decrease by 1 to increase by 1.6 tons net for the 2025 - 26 season, and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] Group 2: Production Forecasts - The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina has raised its forecast for the 2025/26 soybean production to 48 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from the previous estimate [1] - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from February 1 - 10, 2026, decreased by 7.58% month - on - month, with a 9.16% decrease in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.30% increase in oil extraction rate [1] - CIMB Securities expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to decline slightly by 1% to 2.78 million tons in February [1] - GAPKI officials predict that Indonesia's crude palm oil production will increase by 2% - 3% in 2026 after an 8% increase in 2025 to 51.98 million tons [1] - Julian McGill of Glenauk Economics says that palm oil production growth will slow in 2026, with Indonesia's production expected to increase by 600,000 tons and Malaysia's to drop to 19.7 million tons [1] Group 3: Price and Basis Information - The table shows the spot prices of bean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from February 5 - 11, 2026 [7] - There are mentions of protein meal basis and grease basis, but no specific data is provided [8] - There is a mention of grease and oil futures price spread, but no specific data is provided [11] - There is a mention of grease import profit, but no specific data is provided [13]

Group 1: Report Core View - From January 22 - 29, US soybean export sales net increase was 43.74 million tons, in line with expectations; export shipments were 138.77 million tons, up 9% from the previous week and 4% from the four - week average; new sales for the current market year were 44.46 million tons, and 0.04 million tons for the next market year [1] - From January 22 - 29, US soybean meal export sales net increase was 38.03 million tons, in line with expectations; export shipments were 30.78 million tons, down 7% from the previous week and 24% from the four - week average; new sales for the current market year were 42.35 million tons, and 0 for the next market year [1] - Anec forecasts Brazil's soybean exports in February to be 11.42 billion tons, a significant increase from 9.73 billion tons in the same period last year; soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.63 billion tons, compared to 1.5 billion tons last year [1] - Secex data shows Brazil exported 1,876,531.75 tons of soybeans in January, a 75.51% increase year - on - year [1] - MPOA data indicates Malaysia's crude palm oil production in January decreased 14.03% month - on - month to 1.57 billion tons [1] - Analysts estimate Canada's rapeseed inventory as of December 31, 2025, to be 15.758 billion tons, up from 13.223 billion tons at the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 30 to February 5, 2026, are presented in a table [2] Group 3: Others - There are mentions of protein meal basis, grease basis, and grease and oil futures price spreads, but no specific data is provided [2][5][9]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Before the USDA's February agricultural product supply - demand report, analysts made various predictions about soybean production and inventory in 2025 - 26, including those of the US, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as global soybean inventory [1]. - In the week ending January 29, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are expected to increase within certain ranges [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to end ten consecutive months of increase in January due to decreased production and increased exports [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Soybean Production and Inventory Forecast - The average forecast for the US 2025 - 26 soybean year - end inventory is 347 million bushels, with a forecast range of 265 - 375 million bushels, compared to the 350 million bushels predicted in the January report [1]. - The average forecast for Brazil's 2025 - 26 soybean production is 179.39 million tons, with a forecast range of 178 - 181.6 million tons, compared to 178 million tons in the January report [1]. - The average forecast for Argentina's 2025 - 26 soybean production is 48.38 million tons, with a forecast range of 47 - 50.5 million tons, compared to 48.5 million tons in the January report [1]. - The average forecast for the global 2025 - 26 soybean year - end inventory is 125.3 million tons, with a forecast range of 121.8 - 127 million tons, compared to 124.41 million tons in the January report [1]. US Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil Export Sales Forecast - As of the week ending January 29, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 40 - 165 million tons, with the current market year expected to increase by 40 - 160 million tons and the next market year by 0 - 5 million tons [1]. - US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 25 - 50 million tons, all in the current market year [1]. - US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 2.5 million tons, all in the current market year [1]. Malaysia Palm Oil Situation - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to drop to 2.91 million tons in January, a 4.64% decrease from December [1]. - Palm oil production is expected to drop 12% to 1.61 million tons, the third consecutive month of decline but still possibly the highest January production since 2019 [1]. - Palm oil product exports are expected to increase 7.48% to 1.42 million tons, the second consecutive month of growth [1]. Price and Basis Information - The report provides historical data on import crushing profits of Brazilian soybeans, import profits of various oils, spot prices of oils and meals, basis of protein meals, basis of oils, and various price spreads in the oil and oilseed market [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending January 22, US soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 40 - 190 million tons, with 40 - 180 million tons in the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 10 million tons in the 2026 - 27 season [1] - US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 22.5 - 50 million tons in the 2025 - 26 season, and 0 tons in the 2026 - 27 season [1] - US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0 - 2.6 million tons in the 2025 - 26 season, and 0 tons in the 2026 - 27 season [1] - The predicted value of Australia's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season is raised by 10% to 7.2 billion tons, with an estimated range of 7 - 7.4 billion tons [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export sales forecast: 40 - 190 million tons (40 - 180 million tons in 2025 - 26, 0 - 10 million tons in 2026 - 27) [1] - US soybean meal export sales forecast: 22.5 - 50 million tons in 2025 - 26, 0 tons in 2026 - 27 [1] - US soybean oil export sales forecast: 0 - 2.6 million tons in 2025 - 26, 0 tons in 2026 - 27 [1] - Australia's rapeseed production forecast: increased by 10% to 7.2 billion tons, range 7 - 7.4 billion tons [1] Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/22 | 3070 | 2400 | 8600 | 8910 | 9840 | | 2026/01/23 | 3070 | 2390 | 8570 | 8880 | 9810 | | 2026/01/26 | 3070 | 2430 | 8660 | 9060 | 9990 | | 2026/01/27 | 3070 | 2430 | 8670 | 9210 | 10130 | | 2026/01/28 | 3070 | 2460 | 8740 | 9240 | 10160 | [4] Protein Meal Basis - Not detailed in the provided content [5] Oil Basis - Not detailed in the provided content [5] Oil and Oilseed Futures Spreads - Not detailed in the provided content [7]

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1. Core Insights - US soybean export sales net increase was 695,600 tons in the week ending November 13, at the lower end of the forecast range, up 36% from the previous week and down 35% from the four - week average, with a net decrease of 100,000 tons in exports to the Chinese mainland; exports were loaded at 1,552,800 tons, up 67% from the previous week and 24% from the four - week average; new sales were 812,500 tons for the current market year and 0 tons for the next market year [1] - US soybean meal export sales net increase was 357,900 tons in the week ending November 13, in line with expectations, up 283% from the previous week and down 4% from the four - week average; exports were loaded at 415,800 tons, up 92% from the previous week and 44% from the four - week average; new sales were 377,700 tons for the current market year and 0 tons for the next market year [1] - Conab lowered the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production by about 550,000 tons to 177.12 million tons, but it would still set a record high if the forecast came true; the estimated export volume was 112 million tons [1] - BGE estimated Brazil's 2025 soybean production at 165.96 million tons, a 14.5% year - on - year increase; the 2026 production was estimated to increase by 1.0% compared to the 2025 forecast [1] - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 6.87% month - on - month, with a 7.24% increase in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.07% decrease in oil extraction rate [1] 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Private exporters reported sales of 226,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations and 264,000 tons to China for the 2025/2026 market year [1] US Soybean and Soybean Meal Export Sales - In the week ending November 13, US soybean export sales and loading data showed specific changes compared to the previous week and four - week average, with a net decrease in exports to the Chinese mainland [1] - In the same week, US soybean meal export sales and loading data also showed significant changes compared to the previous week and four - week average [1] Brazil's Soybean Production and Export Forecast - Conab adjusted Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production and export forecasts due to irregular rainfall in some areas last month [1] - BGE estimated Brazil's 2025 and 2026 soybean production, showing year - on - year and sequential increases [1] Malaysia's Palm Oil Production - Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 10, 2025, had a month - on - month increase, along with changes in fresh fruit bunch yield and oil extraction rate [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions from December 5 - 11, 2025, were provided [1]

Group 1 - Soybean contracts increased by 2 to 3.5 cents at the close, with the national average cash bean price rising to $10.49 3/4, up 3.75 cents [1] - The USDA reported 1.248 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans sold in the week of October 30, which is 13.9% lower than the previous week and 48.7% lower than the same week last year [2] - China purchased 232,000 MT of soybeans during the same week, marking their first appearance in the market [2] Group 2 - Soybean meal sales were recorded at 219,830 MT, falling short of the trade estimate range of 200,000 to 450,000 MT [3] - Soybean oil bookings totaled 4,664 MT, which was below the estimated range of 5,000 to 25,000 MT [3] - Brazil exported 4.2 MMT of soybeans in November, a 37.62% decrease from the previous month but a 64.4% increase compared to the same month last year [4] Group 3 - ANEC estimates Brazil's December soybean exports at 2.81 MMT, which would represent a 1.34 MMT increase from last year if realized [4] - The closing prices for January, March, and May 2026 soybeans were $11.19 1/2, $11.28 3/4, and $11.37 1/4 respectively, with slight increases noted [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The USDA's weekly export sales report was suspended due to the federal government shutdown, but the overseas agricultural service will continue to process export sales information, and the missing data will be补发 after federal funds are restored [1] - The expected net increase in US soybean export sales for the week ending October 16, 2025/26 is 60.0 - 200.0 million tons, with similar ranges for corn, wheat, bean meal, and soybean oil [1] - If Indonesia upgrades from B40 to B50, it will require an additional 3 million tons of palm oil, reducing its export supply significantly as it currently exports 24 - 28 million tons annually [1][2] - Global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely on sunflower oil as US and Brazilian exportable soybean oil supply is expected to drop from 2.7 million tons in 2024/25 to 1.6 million tons in 2025/26, a 41% decrease [2] - Argentina's soybean product export tax exemption policy has stimulated forward sales, which may weaken its crushing capacity and limit soybean oil exports [2] - Sunflower oil prices remain strong, leading vegetable oil prices, with a price of $1,360 per ton in the European market in mid - October, indicating tight supply [2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - The USDA's weekly export sales report was suspended due to the federal government shutdown, and the overseas agricultural service will continue to process export sales information. The missing data will be补发 after federal funds are restored [1] - Surveys show expected net increases in US export sales for the week ending October 16: soybeans 60.0 - 200.0 million tons, corn 80.0 - 200.0 million tons, wheat 35.0 - 65.0 million tons, bean meal 15.0 - 45.0 million tons, and soybean oil 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1] MPOC Forecast - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, it will need an additional 3 million tons of palm oil for blending, reducing its export supply to 22 million tons or less from the current 24 - 28 million tons annually [1][2] Global Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand - Global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely on sunflower oil as US and Brazilian exportable soybean oil supply is expected to drop by 41% from 2.7 million tons in 2024/25 to 1.6 million tons in 2025/26 [2] - Argentina's soybean product export tax exemption policy has stimulated forward sales, which may limit its soybean oil exports in the coming months [2] - Sunflower oil prices remain strong, leading vegetable oil prices, with a price of $1,360 per ton in the European market in mid - October, indicating tight supply [2] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products in different regions from October 17 - 23, 2025 are provided, including bean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Conab anticipates Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to rise by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons, with the planting area expanding by 3.7% to 49.08 million hectares; corn production is expected to be 138.28 million tons, and the planting area is estimated at 22,630 tons [1]. - Conab predicts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean exports to reach a record 112.12 million tons, mainly driven by exports to China; corn exports are expected to be 4.65 million tons [1]. - The USDA reports that for the week ending September 11, US 2025/26 market - year soybean export sales net increased by 92.30 million tons, meeting expectations; exports loaded were 83.71 million tons, up 31% from the previous week and 70% from the four - week average [1]. - China's customs data shows that in August, palm oil imports were 340,000 tons (up 16.5% year - on - year), soybean oil imports were 100,000 tons (up 113.9% year - on - year), and rapeseed and mustard oil imports were 140,000 tons (up 18.7% year - on - year) [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Conab's first forecast for the 2025/2026 crop year shows an increase in Brazil's soybean production and planting area, and a slight decrease in corn production; soybean and corn exports are expected to rise [1]. - The USDA's export sales report indicates the situation of US soybean export sales and shipments for the week ending September 11 [1]. - China's customs data reveals the import volume and year - on - year changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed and mustard oil in August and from January to August [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 12 to September 18, 2025, are presented, showing price fluctuations [2]. Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis - Not provided with specific content Oilseed and Oil Futures Price Spreads - Not provided with specific content