编者按：由复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院主办的第二届当代中国外交史论坛暨"中国与 国际组织的历史"于近日举办。 中国社会科学院学部委员、国家一级研究员、俄罗斯科学院院士邢广程在其演讲中分析 了"中美苏大三角"这一历史概念的内涵，认为中国主动撑出"中美苏大三角"，其历史意义被 低估了。观察者网编辑、刊载其演讲，供各位读者参考。本文已经作者本人校订。 【文/邢广程，整编/观察者网 李泠】 冷战结束后，特别是最近几年，我国区域国别研究中经常有人提及"中美俄大三角"这一概念，这一概念 延续了历史上"中美苏大三角"的框架，我认为对此进行探讨具有重要的现实意义。 ·中国主动构建了"中美苏大三角"中的第三"角" 首先，"中美苏大三角"本质上是一个战略大三角。这一三角关系形成于20世纪70年代至80年代末的冷战 后期，在中苏论战之后。因此，它是冷战时期世界格局演变的产物，体现了中国、美国和苏联三国在冷 战背景下的三角互动关系，这种关系并非一般意义上的三角关系，而是一种具有战略意义的大三角结 构。 值得强调的是，"中美苏大三角"的构建主体是我们中国。 今年正值中国抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年。二战期间，世界分为法西斯 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the unpredictability of historical and market trends, emphasizing that understanding the current position is crucial for making informed decisions [10][11][15] - It highlights the importance of public sentiment in shaping macroeconomic trends, suggesting that the emotional responses of the populace can significantly influence political and economic outcomes [12][13] - The text reflects on past geopolitical events, particularly during the Cold War, to illustrate how misjudgments can lead to unexpected outcomes, drawing parallels to current market conditions [4][5][6] Group 2 - The author expresses skepticism about the return to a rational and reconciliatory era, indicating that the current climate is more complex and fraught with challenges [14] - There is a comparison made between historical valuations in the stock market and current economic indicators, suggesting that while future movements are uncertain, understanding relative value is essential [11][15] - The article concludes with a reflection on the nature of modernity and historical interpretation, questioning the assumptions made about past events and their implications for the future [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics of global power, particularly focusing on the perceived rise of China and the challenges posed by the U.S. under Trump's administration, suggesting that the century may belong to China if the U.S. does not change its approach [2][24]. Group 1: Historical Context - The article references George Kennan's strategic thought of "containment" during the Cold War, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to counter the expansion of the Soviet Union to maintain global stability and protect American interests [5][7]. - It highlights how U.S. foreign policy has historically been shaped by elite strategists who aimed to create a stable world order led by the U.S., which ultimately succeeded in defeating the Soviet Union [9][10]. Group 2: Current U.S.-China Relations - The article points out that the current U.S.-China relationship is fundamentally different from the U.S.-Soviet relationship, noting the complexity and interdependence of global trade and economic ties between the two nations [23]. - It discusses how the U.S. has increasingly viewed China as a primary adversary, akin to the Soviet Union, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis, with rising anti-China sentiment among U.S. policymakers [12][16]. Group 3: Economic and Social Implications - The article mentions the growing wealth gap in the U.S., where the top 1% now holds over 20% of pre-tax income, contributing to social issues and affecting the U.S.'s international image [24]. - It contrasts the economic conditions of China and the Soviet Union, noting that China's GDP has surpassed that of the U.S. when adjusted for purchasing power parity, indicating a significant shift in global economic power [24].

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles is that the legacy of the Cold War continues to shape the current global political and economic landscape, influencing everything from international relations to individual lifestyles [1][4][10] - The book "The Story of the Cold War" presents a comprehensive analysis of the Cold War's development and its lasting impact on contemporary society, emphasizing the importance of international order and rules [2][3] - The ongoing tensions between the US and China are seen as a potential new Cold War, with significant implications for global politics and economics, highlighting the complexities of international relations today [5][12][14] Group 2 - The Cold War is characterized by a unique ideological struggle between capitalism and socialism, which has left a lasting imprint on global politics and continues to influence current conflicts [6][11] - The historical context of the Cold War is essential for understanding contemporary issues, such as the situation in Afghanistan and the dynamics of African nations post-colonization [5][9] - The transition from a clear ideological divide to more complex identity politics reflects a shift in how nations perceive each other, moving beyond simple classifications of "friend" or "enemy" [14]

从1961年到1963年，柏林危机成了肯尼迪总统工作中的头等大事。这场危机考验了他，也塑造了他。柏林危机 ——后来演变为古巴导弹危机——是核大国之间第一次试图用直白的战争威胁来解决国际争端。赫鲁晓夫挑选柏 林这个地方来展示核武库以威胁西方。肯尼迪真的很惧怕核战争的危险。长期担任肯尼迪助手的肯尼斯・奥唐奈 尔（Kenneth O'Donnell）后来写道，肯尼迪感觉自己被柏林"困住"了。奥唐奈尔发现，在白宫内部的会议上，肯 尼迪在他放在内阁桌子上的一个黄色便签簿上一遍又一遍地写下"柏林"这个词。 肯尼迪和他的团队开局并不理想。他们最开始的关注点是莫斯科而不是德国。吸取了1914年的"教训"之后，这 些"新边疆主义者"非常担心对局势的错判会升级为核大战。美国的盟友、英国首相哈罗德・麦克米伦（Harold Macmillan）也持这样的观点。在经历过两次与德国的世界大战之后，英美两国都在问自己：为了一个被苏联包围 的前敌国首都，是否值得让自己的国家承受核毁灭的风险？ 古巴导弹危机 约翰·肯尼迪，在冷战中的危机管理 1961—1963年的柏林危机 （1952年，编者注）10月，柏林危机在一个意想不到的地方——加勒比海 ...