中国对钨的出口管控，核心原因在于其具备"不可替代"的战略价值，这种价值源于其独特的物理特性，更源于其在工业与军工领域的广泛刚需。 钨被称为"工业牙齿"，绝非夸张：其熔点高达3422℃，是所有金属中熔点最高的品种之一；硬度仅略低于钻石，在高温环境下仍能保持稳定的力学性能。 同时它的密度较大，具备优异的耐磨、耐腐蚀特性。这些特性共同决定了，在诸多极端工况场景中，钨是无可替代的核心材料。 在工业领域，钨是现代制造业的"核心骨架"。最直观的应用便是切削工具，无论是加工硬金属的钻头、铣刀，还是精密机械的刀具，都必须添加钨制成硬质 合金，否则根本无法应对高强度的切削需求。 更关键的是，在高端装备制造中，钨的作用不可或缺：喷气式发动机的涡轮叶片需要在千度以上的高温环境下高速运转，必须采用钨基高温合金才能保证性 能稳定。 今天来给大家聊一下我国的一项资源出口管控，引发全球工业与军工领域震动，钨，这种被称为"工业牙齿"的关键金属，其出口管控级别甚至比肩稀土。 为何中国要将钨的管控提升至战略高度？这种金属究竟具备怎样不可替代的价值？在中美竞争日趋激烈的背景下，中国掌握的钨资源优势，又将如何影响全 球战略格局？ 在半导体制造过程中 ...

专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 来源：博道基金 博道基金研究总监兼基金投资部总经理，26年从业、22年投资经验 小博说 每逢岁末年初，都是基金经理们复盘与展望的时间窗口。 本期，为大家分享来自博道基金研究总监兼基金投资部总经理、"嘉"系列产品基金经理张迎军的2026年 A股市场展望。 张迎军拥有26年证券、基金从业经验，22年投资经验，对于中国资本市场有独到的认知和见解，投资上 遵循自上而下的方法论，始终强调"尊重市场、顺势而为"。 过去的几年，全球地缘格局发生剧烈变化，同时，以AI为代表的科技创新向前跃进一大步，"百年未有 之大变局"将如何影响资本市场？复盘2025年，传统市场分析框架所无法解释的部分应该如何认知与看 待？这些变化又将为投资带来哪些挑战与机遇？ 另外，对于广大投资者都很关注的关于"AI泡沫"的探讨、对于金银铜在2025年精彩纷呈的表现和后续投 资价值以及创新药，文中也给出了独到的分析视角。这篇年度展望较长，但非常值得一看。 以下，分享给大家，愿有所得。 2025年A股市场各类宽基指数连续第二年收出上涨年K线，特别是上证综指创了过去10年的新高，A股 市场初 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 美国突袭委内瑞拉:火线解读 20260104 摘要 。 度上依赖来自委内瑞拉特定经济支持,没有对这个"大金主"，古巴政权 生存将面临严峻挑战。 多尔 中国企业在委内瑞拉及整个拉美地区投资面临政治不确定性和外部战略 . 稳定性的挑战,需要重新评估投资策略,并考虑政治可持续性。 Q&A 美国突袭委内瑞拉事件对地缘格局、资源品市场以及中国在南美的项目可能带 来哪些影响? 美国突袭委内瑞拉事件对地缘格局、资源品市场以及中国在南美的项目可能带来 多方面影响。首先,地缘格局方面,拉美地区的政治形势将变得更加复杂,美国 与委内瑞拉之间的冲突升级可能导致其他国家选择站队,从而引发区域内更广泛 的政治动荡。其次,资源品市场方面,由于委内瑞拉是重要的原油和黄金产区, 此次事件可能导致这些资源供应的不确定性增加,从而引发国际市场价格波动。 最后,中国在南美尤其是委内瑞拉有大量投资和项目,此次事件可能会影响这些 争 狗 - 美国军事干预委内瑞拉旨在重塑其在拉美地区的影响力,并可能对其他反 ● 美政权构成威慑,同时意图夺回美国企业在委内瑞拉的石油资产,并削弱 中国和俄罗斯在该地 ...

新产品与新技术百花齐放，关注机器人产业ETF（159551）机会 机器人是AI的终极载体，有望成为中美竞争的下一个主要赛道。海外方面，特斯拉V3版本或将沿着轻量化、小型化、高集成度、高稳定性等方向演化，预 计明年Q1有望发布，后续将开启量产。国内方面，新产品与新技术百花齐放，宇树、智元、乐聚、云深处、银河通用等资本运作不断加速，后续相关企业 上市有望对板块形成催化。 宇树首店明日北京开业，机器人板块利好不断 消息面，宇树科技发布消息称，其全国首店将于12月31日在北京京东MALL开业。 据媒体报道，作为宇树科技与京东在零售领域的首次深度合作，该门店集中展示了宇树旗下多款明星机器人产品，其中包括G1人形机器人，这款机器人因 前不久为知名歌手王力宏伴舞而再次走红。用户可以直观感受机器人在家庭、教育、娱乐、助老等场景中的实际应用，通过实时互动与反馈，反哺产品迭代 与优化，加速机器人走进千家万户。 此外，近期工信部标准化技术委员会成立，人形机器人产业迎来新里程碑。 12月26日，工业和信息化部人形机器人与具身智能标准化技术委员会（以下简称"标委会"）成立会议在京召开。改善市场无序竞争，推动全产业链标准化和 规范化发展 ...

造船、机电产品、数码设备，这些传统出口领域，中国产品的技术含量也在稳步提升。过去那种靠大量低附加值产品换高端装备的日子，早就慢慢改变 了。 美国当初的算盘，是想通过掌控金融、核心技术和高端设计，永远坐在全球产业链的最上端。可这些年，它自己的制造业逐步外移，底子薄了。 现在回头看，这个选择带来的后果，正在一点点显现。 最近总有人问，中美这场大较量，还得持续多少年？ 说实话，这场以美国主动进攻、中国全力应对为主的激烈阶段，已经在很大程度上过去了。不是说完全没竞争了，而是美国发现，以前那套办法，用来用 去都不灵了。 现在的美国，有点像打了很久一场硬仗的运动员，体力消耗太大，开始认真考虑，是不是该调整策略，更多地把精力放回北美和西半球这片自家地盘上。 原因很简单。美国把能想的招数，几乎都试了个遍，结果发现对面的中国，不仅站得稳，还在不少领域开始往前赶。 先看科技和制造业那块。几年前美国启动芯片制裁的时候，外界很多人觉得中国的高科技发展要被卡住了，大家都等着看后续的影响。 实际情况呢？几年过去，中国自己的芯片产业稳步往前走，自给能力明显提高。更重要的是，出口规模也上来了，甚至在某些年份出口额超过了进口。 这说明，中国没 ...

Group 1 - The core intention behind Trump's eagerness to replace the Federal Reserve Chairman is to advocate for significant interest rate cuts to alleviate economic and debt pressures in the U.S. [3] - Trump aims to lower the federal funds rate to 1% to reduce government borrowing costs and stimulate consumption and investment, countering the negative impacts of his tariff policies [3][5] - The replacement of the Federal Reserve Chairman is also a political strategy for Trump to secure voter support in key electoral regions, particularly the Rust Belt, by shifting blame for any economic downturn onto the current Chairman, Powell [5] Group 2 - Trump's move to replace the Federal Reserve Chairman challenges the independence of the Fed, as he seeks to appoint someone aligned with his views to ensure monetary policy supports his administration's decisions [7] - By signaling a continuation of low interest rate policies, Trump aims to reassure markets and prepare them for future monetary policy adjustments, while simultaneously undermining Powell's authority [9] - Biden's emphasis on maintaining U.S. global leadership and his remarks about China serve as a counter to Trump's strategic retreat, highlighting the potential risks of allowing China to expand its influence [9]

怎么又卡脖子了？——芯片价格上涨、海运费用飙升、留学签证被严格审查，朋友圈里总有朋友分享美 国方面的一些幺蛾子事件。看似只是偶尔的不幸，实则是一个老问题的新版：美国已经将中国定为其对 手七十多年，只是现在它的表现更加直白，打招呼的方式也更为露骨。从1950年冬天，鸭绿江边的炮火 第一次让华盛顿意识到，中国这个东亚大国，不再是地图上的配角。冷战结束后，中国却一头扎进全球 市场，GDP如同注射了兴奋剂，二十年内翻了十倍。美国本以为富了的国家会变得听话，但结果是，工 会喊着失业，硅谷担心被超越，五角大楼则在抱怨航母不够用了。简单来说，中国的体量已经大到让美 国感到不安，而这种不安让它开始出手。 美国出手的方式非常直接：关税大棒、实体清单、对台军 售、南海自由航行——每一招都直击产业链的软肋。特朗普时期，美国一口气加了几千亿关税，而拜登 虽然嘴上说着竞争不是对抗，但在行动上却是清单越拉越长，光伏、电池、生物制造等领域都未能幸 免。这个套路并不新鲜：你发展得太快，我就把你拖进规则的迷宫，让你浪费时间，最后赌你会因为内 乱而动摇。 有人把这种现象称作国运，听起来神秘，实际上就是抓住时机。中国加入WTO后，赶上了全球化的浪 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the financial data and economic conditions in China, particularly focusing on the banking sector and macroeconomic indicators [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Loan Growth and Economic Trends** - In January, new loans amounted to 5.1 trillion yuan, indicating a typical credit peak season, but a slight decrease in loan growth is expected in the coming months, aligning with nominal economic growth trends [1][9]. - The demand for household credit remains weak due to multiple factors including a sluggish real estate market, stock market volatility, and declining consumer data [1][10]. 2. **Monetary Supply and Policy Environment** - M1 money supply growth has decreased to 4.9% year-on-year, while M2 growth remains stable at 8%, reflecting a relatively stable policy environment with no urgent need for adjustments [1][4]. - The central bank's financial data shows a year-on-year growth in social financing scale of 8.5%, with loan growth at 6.3%, indicating a stable overall performance but with some discrepancies from market expectations [2]. 3. **ETF Fund Flows and Market Sentiment** - Dividend ETFs continue to attract funds for low-positioning, while the technology sector shows weak liquidity. The CSI 500 ETF saw a net inflow close to 10 billion yuan, while tech-themed ETFs like AI, military, and semiconductors experienced significant net outflows [1][5][6]. - The banking sector is experiencing a daily net outflow of about 500 million yuan, but its fundamental improvement is considered highly certain, suggesting potential investment value [6]. 4. **Future Market Expectations** - An interest rate hike is anticipated around mid-2026 to address potential economic downturn risks. The banking sector's fundamentals are improving, but the overall upward potential is limited to about one or two percentage points [7][8]. - The consumer sector remains a market highlight, and the performance of innovative pharmaceutical stocks in Hong Kong is also noted [8]. 5. **Investment Policy and Economic Recovery** - Attention is required on the implementation of policies from the Central Economic Work Conference, particularly regarding "investment stabilization." Current market reactions are relatively muted, and there is a lack of new directions to boost investment growth [11]. - The potential for large-scale infrastructure projects or new monetary tools to support the economy is acknowledged, but the effectiveness may not match past initiatives like the 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan [11]. 6. **Market Dynamics and Risks** - The overall economic activity is showing signs of weakening, which is viewed as a healthy adjustment. The stock market requires strong policy signals to break out of its current stagnation [12]. - The impact of US-China competition is discussed, indicating that China is not at a disadvantage, which supports the RMB exchange rate and foreign capital allocation [13]. Additional Important Insights - The early loan disbursement by banks in October rather than December may influence corporate project growth [3]. - The current financial data suggests that without unexpected policy support, the stock market may struggle to maintain upward momentum [12]. - The debt market may see recovery opportunities following the Central Financial Conference, as high interest rates currently hinder fiscal debt issuance costs [12].

特朗普还没开始访华，美国政府就已经罕见地承认，中美两国的实力如今已不分上下。就在这一关键时 刻，中国央行公布了一份非常引人注目的成绩单——连续13个月增持黄金。这一动作背后，传递出的信 息远比黄金本身更为深远。根据观察者网的报道，美国最近悄然发布了新版《国家安全战略》，其核心 内容可以用四个字来概括：美国优先。这也是特朗普政府治国方略的精简版。报告中，最引人注目的一 点便是美国首次对中国定位升级。报告坦言，中国经过迅猛的发展，已经成为与美国实力几乎平等的大 国。在33页的报告中，有6页专门聚焦中国，但其语气的微妙变化颇具深意。报告将中国定位为主要经 济竞争对手和贸易伙伴，而非主要威胁或最严峻挑战。 从长期来看，战略定力变得尤为关键。美国部分力量的撤退在全球范围内可能会产生权力真空，国际社 会或许会有所期待，但中国必须保持冷静。历史反复证明，战略透支是大国衰退的开始。如果盲目填补 所有空白，四处承担超出自身能力的责任，最终可能耗尽国家的力量。中国的崛起之路，关键在于根据 自身的节奏稳步推进，做好自己的事，夯实国家综合实力。就在这一敏感的国际背景下，中国央行选择 在同一时刻更新了相关数据，吸引了全球金融市场的广泛 ...

Core Insights - The nature of US-China competition has changed, with the US now acknowledging China as a competitor, marking a significant shift in geopolitical dynamics [3][4] - The concept of a "G2" world, where the US and China are the two dominant powers, is gaining traction, as highlighted by President Trump's remarks [4] - The long-term resilience of the Chinese economy is emphasized, with a focus on its manufacturing sector's growth and innovation capabilities [5][6] Group 1: US-China Relations - The US has imposed tariffs on over a hundred countries, but China has effectively countered these actions, leading to a balance of power [3] - The perception of China as an unstoppable force is growing among the American intellectual elite, indicating a potential shift towards coexistence [4] - The historical context of China's economic growth is highlighted, with projections showing its share of global manufacturing increasing from 5% in 2000 to 45% by 2030 [5] Group 2: Economic Dynamics - Despite macroeconomic challenges such as low consumption and a sluggish real estate market, China continues to see technological innovations in sectors like AI and electric vehicles [5] - The US dollar remains a powerful tool for the US, and any sanctions involving the dollar would significantly impact China [5] - The unexpected strength of the global economy, despite rising tariffs, suggests that regions outside the US are becoming more trade-oriented [7] Group 3: Innovation and Perception - The belief that Chinese individuals lack innovation is challenged, with evidence suggesting that local talent is increasingly driving innovation [6] - The discussion highlights the contrasting views of stability and harmony in Chinese society versus the Western emphasis on freedom and democracy [5][6] - The response of various Asian countries to US policies indicates a lack of unified retaliation, with smaller nations seeking to enhance trade relationships independently [7]