中美关系历经数十载风雨，在"冷战""接触""竞争"等标签轮转后，于特朗普第二任期步入一个看似矛盾 的新阶段。丹佛大学约瑟夫·科贝尔国际关系学院终身教授兼美中合作中心主任赵穗生走进人大重阳， 以四十年中美关系变化亲历者的独特视角，回溯了从"新冷战"论调甚嚣尘上，到当下"战略稳定"格局形 成的演变脉络，犀利指出特朗普政府内外政策逻辑的断裂与延续。 赵穗生不仅剖析了华盛顿对华共识的形成与松动，更揭示了"僵局"之下双方力量对比的深刻变化及美国 社会内部的战略疲惫。这种"相持"状态能否持续？外交博弈能否替代战略对抗？本文整理了赵穗生在本 场活动中的发言实录，为穿透迷雾，提供线索。 从"新冷战"到"战略稳定" 今年我正好去美国四十年，1985年走，今年2025年，四十年整。这四十年，我亲眼目睹了中美关系的变 化。特朗普第二任期上台以后，很多人都在观察他跟第一任期有什么不一样，我自己感觉，非常不一 样。最近我写了一篇文章，题目叫《"新冷战"的兴衰》。第一任期他发起了"新冷战"，第二任期"新冷 战"似乎销声匿迹，对中国的意识形态、地缘政治挑战几乎听不到，全集中在做"交易"、做贸易。所以 最近对特朗普第二任期的中美关系，有很多 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles is that the legacy of the Cold War continues to shape the current global political and economic landscape, influencing everything from international relations to individual lifestyles [1][4][10] - The book "The Story of the Cold War" presents a comprehensive analysis of the Cold War's development and its lasting impact on contemporary society, emphasizing the importance of international order and rules [2][3] - The ongoing tensions between the US and China are seen as a potential new Cold War, with significant implications for global politics and economics, highlighting the complexities of international relations today [5][12][14] Group 2 - The Cold War is characterized by a unique ideological struggle between capitalism and socialism, which has left a lasting imprint on global politics and continues to influence current conflicts [6][11] - The historical context of the Cold War is essential for understanding contemporary issues, such as the situation in Afghanistan and the dynamics of African nations post-colonization [5][9] - The transition from a clear ideological divide to more complex identity politics reflects a shift in how nations perceive each other, moving beyond simple classifications of "friend" or "enemy" [14]