以下文章来源于远川科技评论 ，作者何律衡 远川科技评论 . 刻画这个时代（的前沿科技） 我是芯片超人花姐，入行20年，有50W+芯片行业粉丝。 有很多不方便公开发公众号的， 关于芯片买卖、关于资 源链接等， 我会分享在朋友圈 。 扫码加我本人微信 消费电子市场蹉跎多年，尚未收获人工智能创造的利润，反而先挨了两记AI铁拳。 人工智能基建热潮下，跟存储沾点边的东西纷纷往天上涨，内存和闪存颗粒大涨价，带动下游手机 和PC价格全线上涨。不过让人多少意外的是，活化石品类机械硬盘居然也能焕发第二春。 从2014年算起，机械硬盘出货量已经跌了近十年，老牌大厂的经营原则都是控产保价格。要么自 行减产，要么靠天灾：比如2011年西部数据泰国工厂遇到洪水，直接带动机械硬盘单价连涨两 年。 没想到2024年机械硬盘扬眉吐气，出货量十年来首次增长，平均售价更是一口气回到1998年的巅 峰水平，整体销售额较2023年大涨50%[1]。 过去25年机械硬盘平均价格趋势 市场枯木逢春，西部数据和希捷两大硬盘长含泪宣布全线上调价格，顺手把锅甩给了AI，称AI和数 据中心创造了对机械硬盘的巨大需求，涨价也是无奈之举。 类似的说辞游戏玩家大概很 ...

消费电子市场蹉跎多年，尚未收获人工智能创造的利润，反而先挨了两记AI铁拳。 人工智能基建热潮下，跟存储沾点边的东西纷纷往天上涨，内存和闪存颗粒大涨价，带动下游手机和PC价格全线上涨。不过让人多少意外的是，活化石 品类机械硬盘居然也能焕发第二春。 从2014年算起，机械硬盘出货量已经跌了近十年，老牌大厂的经营原则都是控产保价格。要么自行减产，要么靠天灾：比如2011年西部数据泰国工厂遇到 洪水，直接带动机械硬盘单价连涨两年。 没想到2024年机械硬盘扬眉吐气，出货量十年来首次增长，平均售价更是一口气回到1998年的巅峰水平，整体销售额较2023年大涨50%[1]。 过去25年机械硬盘平均价格趋势 市场枯木逢春，西部数据和希捷两大硬盘长含泪宣布全线上调价格，顺手把锅甩给了AI，称AI和数据中心创造了对机械硬盘的巨大需求，涨价也是无奈 之举。 类似的说辞游戏玩家大概很是耳熟。显卡供应紧张的时候，英伟达和AMD也是异口同声：有限的产能被优先分配给了利润空间更大的AI和数据中心，造 成消费级产品供不应求。 人工智能的高速公路还在铺设，但收费站的涨价通知已经下发了。 有预谋的涨价 机械硬盘此番涨价看似猝不及防，实则酝酿已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected resurgence of mechanical hard drives (HDDs) driven by the demand for cold data storage in the context of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, leading to significant price increases and a notable rise in sales volume for the first time in a decade [6][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer electronics market has struggled to profit from AI advancements, with prices for memory and flash storage rising, impacting downstream products like smartphones and PCs [6]. - Mechanical hard drives, which had seen a decline in shipments for nearly ten years, experienced a sales increase in 2024, with average prices returning to levels not seen since 1998, resulting in a 50% increase in overall sales revenue compared to 2023 [6][12]. - Major HDD manufacturers, Western Digital and Seagate, have raised prices across the board, attributing this to increased demand from AI and data centers [8][12]. Group 2: Data Storage Needs - Data is categorized into "hot" and "cold" based on access frequency, with hot data requiring high throughput and cold data being less frequently accessed but larger in volume [9][10]. - Cold data, which includes backups and records, is primarily stored on HDDs due to their lower cost per GB compared to solid-state drives (SSDs), which are about seven times more expensive [11][20]. - The demand for cold data storage is growing rapidly as AI models generate vast amounts of data, leading to increased HDD demand and a supply shortage [11][12]. Group 3: Industry Trends - HDD manufacturers are not expanding production capacity despite rising demand, focusing instead on maintaining profits by prioritizing enterprise users over consumer products [11][22]. - The market share of consumer-grade HDDs is expected to decline significantly, with revenue contributions from Western Digital and Seagate dropping from over 20% to below 10% [22]. - The competitive landscape for HDDs is stable, as the cost reduction of SSDs has slowed, allowing HDDs to maintain a niche market in enterprise-level cold storage [20][22]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The article highlights a trend where semiconductor companies are prioritizing supply for larger strategic customers, such as data centers, over consumer products, as seen with Samsung and Micron [23][24]. - NVIDIA is also shifting focus from gaming graphics cards to data center GPUs, indicating a broader industry trend towards prioritizing AI and data center needs over traditional consumer markets [26].

Core Insights - The article highlights the impact of AI-generated data on global data center storage, leading to a shortage of Nearline HDDs and a shift towards high-performance, high-cost SSDs, particularly QLC SSDs, which are expected to see explosive growth in shipments by 2026 [2][5]. Data Center Storage Trends - Nearline HDDs have traditionally been the main solution for cold data storage due to their low cost per GB, but the demand for cold data storage is rapidly increasing with the expansion of Inference AI applications [2]. - SSDs are primarily responsible for hot and warm data storage due to their high read and write performance, with QLC SSDs offering better efficiency and approximately 30% lower power consumption compared to Nearline HDDs [2]. Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - Major HDD manufacturers have not planned to expand production lines, resulting in delivery times for Nearline HDDs extending from weeks to over 52 weeks, exacerbating the storage gap for cloud service providers (CSPs) [5]. - CSPs in North America are considering the use of SSDs for cold data storage due to the severe HDD shortage, but face challenges related to cost and supply chain management [5][6]. Pricing and Profitability - The demand shift towards SSDs presents an opportunity for suppliers to improve profit margins, but limited capacity for high-capacity products means suppliers are unlikely to significantly lower prices [6]. - A price negotiation is anticipated between buyers and sellers, leading to an expected 5-10% increase in overall Enterprise SSD contract prices in Q4 2025 [6].