Core Viewpoint - New World Development faces liquidity challenges highlighted by the delay in interest payments on four perpetual bonds, but has secured refinancing to address its debt situation [2][9][24]. Group 1: Perpetual Bonds and Debt Situation - The delay in interest payments on four perpetual bonds has raised concerns, but it is not classified as a typical debt default [3][4]. - As of the end of 2024, New World Development has five perpetual bonds totaling HKD 35.4 billion, with the delayed payments affecting four of them [4][5]. - The company classifies its perpetual bonds as equity under accounting standards, which differentiates them from typical financial liabilities [7][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Cash Flow - New World Development has faced significant profitability challenges, with a cumulative loss of HKD 26.6 billion in net profit over 2023 and 2024 due to property valuation losses and inventory write-downs [10][12]. - The company has a cash balance of HKD 21.9 billion against short-term debt of HKD 32.6 billion, resulting in a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.67 [12]. - The total interest-bearing debt amounts to HKD 151.4 billion, with unsecured bank loans constituting approximately 53% of this debt [12]. Group 3: Asset Management and Market Conditions - New World Development's net debt ratio stands at 60%, which is lower than the average of 98% for 50 sample companies in the industry [16]. - The company has invested heavily in properties, which typically have long return cycles, leading to cash flow pressures amid a declining market [18][21]. - The company has experienced net cash outflows in most years from 2018 to 2024, primarily due to debt repayments and dividend payments [18][19]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - New World Development plans to sell non-core assets, including office properties in Hong Kong, to improve liquidity [25]. - The company is also considering mortgaging core assets to extend debt maturities and replace high-interest debt [25]. - Despite current challenges, New World Development retains substantial shareholder equity of HKD 172.7 billion, providing a buffer for capital operations [25].

Company Overview - The company has organized investor visits to Hong Kong to conduct research on local developers and projects [1] - The retail revenue in mainland China has been under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 14% and a quarterly decline of 11% in Q4 2024 [1] - There are signs of easing pressure in mainland shopping malls, with expectations of a narrowing decline in retail revenue compared to Q4 2023 [1] Mainland Market Insights - The overall consumption environment in mainland China is improving, which is expected to positively impact the company's retail performance [1] - The performance of mid-range shopping malls is anticipated to outperform high-end projects in Shanghai, particularly in competitive cities like Wuhan and Shenyang [1] - Rental income is expected to perform better than retail revenue due to the high fixed rental proportion, although a slight decline in rental income is anticipated for the year [1] Hong Kong Market Insights - The rental income from Hong Kong properties is projected to decline by 9% in 2024 due to adjustments in major tenant lease renewals, with a minor decline of 1-2% when excluding this impact [2] - The company is selling a luxury apartment in the Yu Feng project for HKD 160 million, which may help in capital recovery and stabilizing financial statements [2] - The sales of residential projects in Hong Kong are in a steady selling phase, contributing a smaller overall income and profit [2] Capital Expenditure and Debt Management - Capital expenditure is expected to peak in 2025 as projects in Hangzhou are completed, with a gradual decline anticipated thereafter [2] - The company is likely to continue its scrip dividend plan to alleviate net debt pressure, with a projected increase in net debt ratio by the end of 2025, remaining below 40% [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with an upgraded target price of HKD 8 per share, reflecting a 13.6 times core P/E for 2025 and a 6.5% target dividend yield [3] - The company is currently trading at a 7.5% dividend yield, providing strong attractiveness in the current market environment [3] - The easing of fundamental pressures and the decline in HIBOR are expected to positively impact interest expenses [3]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Poly Real Estate achieved a total contract sales amount of 54.2 billion yuan, with a contract sales area of 2.121 million square meters, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and a decrease of 5.8% respectively, indicating a counter-trend growth amidst a general decline in sales among most real estate companies [3][7] Sales Performance - The company recorded a sales recovery amount of 54.8 billion yuan, with a sales recovery rate of 101%, which is an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [8] - The average contract sales price reached 25,546 yuan per square meter, up 7.3% from 2023, driven by a 15.1% sales contribution from the Hong Kong region, which is a 7 percentage point increase compared to 2023 [8] - The number of ongoing sales projects increased to 147 from 135 in 2023, while the number of projects under construction and awaiting construction decreased to 55 from 70, indicating a growing inventory pressure [8][6] Inventory and Land Acquisition - The company faced increased inventory pressure, with the value of completed and available properties rising by 40% year-on-year to 45.22 billion yuan, and the proportion of inventory value increasing from 24% to 36% [3][8] - In 2024, Poly Real Estate added 6 new projects in Jinan, Ningbo, Shenzhen, and Shanghai, with a total land acquisition area of 964,000 square meters and a total land cost of approximately 19.9 billion yuan, maintaining a land acquisition-to-sales ratio of 0.37, below the strategic target of 40% [9][11] Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2024 was 40.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, while gross profit fell by 21.1% to 6.6 billion yuan, leading to a gross margin decline of 4 percentage points to 16.4% [4][16] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 80.6% to 342 million yuan, with a core net profit margin dropping by 3.5 percentage points to 0.8% [4][16] Financing and Debt Management - Poly Real Estate completed the issuance of 5 corporate bonds totaling 5 billion yuan in 2024, with interest rates below 3%, resulting in a reduction of the average financing cost by 0.5 percentage points to 3.38% [5][18] - The company's cash holdings increased by 8.8% to 34.67 billion yuan, while interest-bearing liabilities due within one year decreased by 6% to 19.54 billion yuan, improving the cash-to-short-term debt ratio to 1.77 [5][19] - The total interest-bearing debt decreased by 4.7% to 70.45 billion yuan, leading to a net debt ratio reduction of 16.2 percentage points to 76.9% [19]