回报周期长且流动性弱是主要问题，优质资产兜底预计影响有限。 ◎ 文 / 易天宇 对于永续债属于金融负债还是权益工具，根据现有会计准则，要根据合同具体条款来判断，包括到期日、清偿 顺序及利率跳升等间接义务相关条款等。从本质上，是看发行方是否能够 无条件避免交付现金或金融资产的 义务， 如果能够避免，则属于权益工具。 而新世界发展在年报中对其永续债做出如下解释"此等证券并无到期日，且分派可由发行人酌情递延，而 可递 延分派次数并无限制。 "由此来看，该描述是符合会计准则中对权益工具的定义。此外，年报中未有披露永续 债拥有潜在利率跳升机制，但披露了股利制动机制，"倘本公司选择向其普通股东宣派股息，新世界发行人则 须按认购协议界定之分派率向永续资本证券持有人作出分派。"但该等条款并不影响永续债被作为权益工具的 2025年5月30日，新世界发展发布了一则公告引发市场关注，宣布4笔美元永续债将延迟派息，与此同时市场消 息还传出新世界发展正为其875亿港元的银行借款进行再融资努力，被外界质疑流动性紧张。然而6月30日，新 世界发展就发布了利好消息，宣布已达成新银行融资及经统一银行融资协议，协议合共涵盖约882亿港元现有 境 ...

Company Overview - The company has organized investor visits to Hong Kong to conduct research on local developers and projects [1] - The retail revenue in mainland China has been under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 14% and a quarterly decline of 11% in Q4 2024 [1] - There are signs of easing pressure in mainland shopping malls, with expectations of a narrowing decline in retail revenue compared to Q4 2023 [1] Mainland Market Insights - The overall consumption environment in mainland China is improving, which is expected to positively impact the company's retail performance [1] - The performance of mid-range shopping malls is anticipated to outperform high-end projects in Shanghai, particularly in competitive cities like Wuhan and Shenyang [1] - Rental income is expected to perform better than retail revenue due to the high fixed rental proportion, although a slight decline in rental income is anticipated for the year [1] Hong Kong Market Insights - The rental income from Hong Kong properties is projected to decline by 9% in 2024 due to adjustments in major tenant lease renewals, with a minor decline of 1-2% when excluding this impact [2] - The company is selling a luxury apartment in the Yu Feng project for HKD 160 million, which may help in capital recovery and stabilizing financial statements [2] - The sales of residential projects in Hong Kong are in a steady selling phase, contributing a smaller overall income and profit [2] Capital Expenditure and Debt Management - Capital expenditure is expected to peak in 2025 as projects in Hangzhou are completed, with a gradual decline anticipated thereafter [2] - The company is likely to continue its scrip dividend plan to alleviate net debt pressure, with a projected increase in net debt ratio by the end of 2025, remaining below 40% [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with an upgraded target price of HKD 8 per share, reflecting a 13.6 times core P/E for 2025 and a 6.5% target dividend yield [3] - The company is currently trading at a 7.5% dividend yield, providing strong attractiveness in the current market environment [3] - The easing of fundamental pressures and the decline in HIBOR are expected to positively impact interest expenses [3]