Group 1 - The US Dollar Index reported at 97.98, showing a slight decline of 0.01%, continuing a recent downward trend after reaching a high of 99.24 on December 10, with a cumulative drop of 1.26% as of December 16, influenced by adjustments in Federal Reserve policy expectations and mixed economic data [1] - The Federal Reserve completed its third interest rate cut of the year on December 11, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%, characterized as a "hawkish cut" due to the addition of language suggesting a pause in rate cuts likely in January 2026, with significant divergence among officials regarding future policy paths [1] - Economic data showed a mixed picture, with November non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, surpassing Dow Jones expectations of 45,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, indicating signs of weakness in the labor market [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced the resumption of short-term Treasury purchases starting December 12, planning to buy approximately $40 billion over the next 30 days, interpreted as a "quasi-QE" signal, which alleviated some tightening pressure from hawkish policy guidance [2] - The technical outlook for the Dollar Index indicates a short-term core fluctuation range of 97.50-98.20, with 97.50 serving as a key support level; a break below this could lead to further declines towards the 97.00 mark, while resistance is concentrated in the 98.20-98.50 range [3] - Future focus will be on US core PCE inflation data, the December non-farm payroll report, and recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, alongside the ongoing impact of government shutdowns on data releases, which will determine whether the Dollar Index can escape its current weak trend [3]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a slight recovery against the US dollar (USD), trading around 0.6663, with a daily increase of 0.0150% and a range between 0.6674 and 0.6656, reflecting recent narrow fluctuations [1] - The core logic behind the strengthening of the AUD is the divergence in policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), combined with Australia's economic recovery and structural changes in the commodity market, which support the AUD and suppress the USD index [1] - The RBA's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.6% during its last meeting of the year on December 9 is a key support factor, as it signals a cautious stance towards inflation and economic recovery, significantly reducing market expectations for rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The inflation in Australia has rebounded after a significant drop from its peak in 2022, with the RBA noting that some of this increase may be temporary, but there are concerns about persistent inflationary signs [1] - Economic recovery in Australia is driven by consumption and investment, with a recovering real estate market and strong wage growth, despite rising unemployment and slowing job growth [1] - The Fed's recent "hawkish rate cut" on December 11, which lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, is interpreted as a signal to slow down easing, while the resumption of short-term Treasury purchases starting December 12 is seen as dovish, alleviating pressure on the AUD [2] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD pair is in a range-bound pattern, with key support at 0.6650 and resistance at 0.6700 and 0.6750, suggesting that market operations are primarily range-based [2] - Future focus will be on the policy directions of both central banks, with potential volatility in the AUD depending on RBA officials' comments regarding inflation control or policy adjustments, as well as Fed officials' statements and US core data impacting USD trends [2] - Fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly iron ore, directly affect the supply and demand for the AUD, and changes in global risk sentiment will also impact the commodity currency [2]