| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 03222 | 92665 | +930.00 | 1.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | 5 | -25.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 93650 | 92785 | +865.00 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેર | ୧୧ | +30.00 | - | 元/肥 | | SMM湿法铜 | 93505 | 92585 | +920.00 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -110 | -75 | -35.00 | - | 7C/ http | | 精废价差 | 4797 | 4007 | +79 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silicon material prices have been below production costs for over five consecutive quarters, and the industry chain is looking for a breakthrough in silicon material prices to alleviate losses [1]. Price Trends - As of July 16, the price range for multi-crystalline silicon N-type recycled material is between 40,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 41,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.4% [2]. - The N-type granular silicon price range is between 40,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 41,000 yuan per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [2]. - The recent increase in transaction volume indicates a shift from a previously cautious attitude among downstream silicon wafer companies [2]. Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a price differentiation, with a price gap of 9,000 yuan per ton for recycled materials, influenced by factors such as self-sufficient power plants and varying operational rates among large manufacturers [3]. - The overall trend suggests that the average transaction price for silicon materials is expected to rise steadily, driven by cost pressures and procurement strategies from downstream companies [3]. Production and Inventory - The silicon material sector needs to clear inventory and maintain production based on sales to avoid losses, with July production expected to be around 105,000 tons and a slight increase to 110,000 tons in August [4]. - The demand from the downstream sector is expected to remain stable at around 110,000 tons per month, indicating no immediate pressure for new inventory [4]. Futures Market - The multi-crystalline silicon futures market has seen significant gains, with the main contract price rising by 5.5% on July 10, reaching 41,345 yuan per ton, marking a three-month high [4]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to manage market risks following the surge in futures prices [4]. Industry Outlook - If the expected capacity exit policies are implemented, the price could potentially reach 45,000 yuan per ton, contingent on various factors aligning [5]. - The actual strengthening of prices may depend on the operational status of downstream silicon wafer companies, which may face production halts due to high raw material costs [6].