Group 1: Export Performance - June exports showed a slight year-on-year increase of 5.8%, up from 4.8%, exceeding market expectations of 3.2%[4] - Direct "export grabbing" to the U.S. was a major driver in June, with exports to the U.S. seeing a reduced year-on-year decline of -16.1%, compared to -34.5% previously[4] - Consumer goods exports to the U.S. rebounded significantly, as over 45% of U.S. imports from China are consumer products[4] Group 2: Future Outlook - The "export grabbing" effect is nearing its end, leading to potential increased pressure on exports in the second half of the year[4] - Indirect trade through regions like South Korea and Latin America has begun to cool, with June's year-on-year export growth to these regions at -6.7% and -2.1% respectively[4] - The expiration of tariff exemptions on July 9 is expected to further impact export growth rates for intermediate goods[4] Group 3: Sector Insights - High-tech sectors are likely to maintain growth despite challenges, with June exports of automobiles and ships showing year-on-year increases of 8.2% and 18.6% respectively[4] - The ongoing tight supply chain connections between China, Japan, and South Korea indicate strong foreign investment in "export grabbing" activities[4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: The current situation remains strong, and the market is waiting for confirmation of the inventory inflection point. The high premium and low inventory situation persists, and the impact of pre - emptive export demand on subsequent demand needs dynamic observation. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and export shipping capacity. From a micro - fundamental perspective, aluminum ingot social inventory continues to decline, and downstream production and processing profits are under pressure [3]. - Alumina: It is in a dilemma of continuous复产 but low inventory. The disk is slightly supported due to tight warrant supplies. The market expects the inventory inflection point to be approaching, but inventory data from different sources shows divergence. The current price valuation is a key factor in the long - short game [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Side: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: The term structure of SHFE aluminum shows a B - structure, and the B - structure of alumina term spreads narrows. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium has changed from - 210 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium has changed from - 425 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton. The term B - structure of alumina has narrowed, with the premium of Shandong and Henan alumina to the current month decreasing [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of SHFE aluminum have narrowed. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract has decreased from 120 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton, and the spread percentage has decreased from 0.58% to 0.46% [5]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract has significantly declined, and the trading volume has also decreased. The open interest of the alumina main contract remains stable at a high level, and the trading volume has rebounded during the week [13]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum has declined, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [17]. 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Bauxite**: As of June 20, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 250,000 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory days remain the same. As of May, the port inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite in the阿拉丁 caliber have continued to increase. In May, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises has increased by 4.487 million tons month - on - month, and the inventory days in alumina plants have also increased. Port shipments and sea - floating inventories show differentiation, and the outbound volume has increased while the inbound volume has decreased [23][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory has increased, with the factory inventory decreasing, the electrolytic aluminum plant inventory increasing slightly, the port inventory increasing, and the platform/in - transit inventory decreasing. The阿拉丁 full - caliber inventory has continued to decrease, with the factory inventory decreasing by 32,000 tons week - on - week, the electrolytic aluminum plant inventory increasing by 10,000 tons, the port inventory decreasing by 2,000 tons, and the yard/platform/in - transit inventory increasing by 19,000 tons [42][48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory has continued to decline rapidly. As of June 12, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 13,000 tons to 450,000 tons, and the destocking rhythm has accelerated [49]. - **Aluminum Rods**: The spot inventory and factory inventory of downstream aluminum rods have increased, and the outbound volume has decreased [54]. 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: In May, the domestic bauxite supply showed a recovery trend, but the latest data from Steel Union in May showed a decline. The supply of domestic mines in different provinces was differentiated, with production in some provinces increasing and in others decreasing [60][64]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate has rebounded. As of June 20, the total operating capacity of national alumina is 88.6 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 100,000 tons. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina is 1.715 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week, and the supply - side loosening pattern remains unchanged [68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of May, the operating capacity remains at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate has significantly rebounded due to profit repair. As of June 19, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum is 844,700 tons, an increase of 800 tons from last week. The proportion of molten aluminum has seasonally increased [71]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has continued to decline slightly, with a weekly decrease of 5,700 tons. The output of recycled aluminum rods has increased by 540 tons week - on - week, and the output of aluminum rods has increased by 1,100 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of leading downstream enterprises has declined, and each segment shows differentiation [74][77]. 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Alumina**: The profit continues to recover. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina according to Steel Union is 388.5 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have all increased, and the profit performance in Guangxi is better than other regions [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remains at a high level, but complex global macro - economic situations, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [92]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly declined, with a weekly decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [93]. 3.5 Consumption: Import and Export Profits and Losses, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profits and Losses**: The import profits and losses of alumina and SHFE aluminum have rebounded [101]. - **Export**: In May, the export of processed aluminum materials has significantly weakened. In April 2025, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The export profits and losses of aluminum processed materials show differentiation, and export demand is hindered by trade policy adjustments [103][106]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The transaction area of commercial housing has rebounded, and automobile production has increased month - on - month [111].