交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 49.68 | 人民币 | 57.70↑ | +16.1% | | | 钧达股份 (002865 CH) | | | | | | | 亏损略超预告中值，供给侧改革确定性提高 资料来源 : FactSet 8/24 12/24 4/25 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 002865 CH 深证成指 股份资料 | 52周高位 (人民币) | 80.40 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (人民币) | 34.80 | | 市值 (百万人民币) | 11,085.10 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 14.60 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (2.78) | | 200天平均价 (人民币) | 45.91 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 文昊, CPA bob.wen@bocomgroup.com (86) 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has reported better-than-expected performance, achieving profitability in Q2 2025, with a revenue of RMB 4.31 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.2% [6][7]. - The gross margin significantly improved to 7.4%, up 6.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, marking the first profitable quarter since Q4 2023 [6]. - Despite the positive results, uncertainties remain for the second half of the year, leading to a maintained Neutral rating and a target price of RMB 16.50, reflecting a potential upside of 12.6% [6][11]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 27,170 million in 2023, RMB 11,155 million in 2024, RMB 19,370 million in 2025E, RMB 30,386 million in 2026E, and RMB 35,905 million in 2027E, with a significant growth expected in 2025 [5][13]. - The net profit is projected to be RMB 757 million in 2023, a loss of RMB 5,319 million in 2024, and a loss of RMB 337 million in 2025E, with a return to profitability expected in 2026 [5][13]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to recover from -9.9% in 2024 to 5.3% in 2025E, and further improve to 13.8% in 2026E [13]. Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week high of RMB 16.49 and a low of RMB 7.39, with a market capitalization of approximately RMB 26,556.06 million [4]. - Year-to-date performance shows an increase of 32.94% [4]. Component Business Forecast - The company’s ABC component sales are projected to grow from 0.5 GW in 2023 to 20.0 GW in 2025E, with unit prices expected to decrease from RMB 1.22 to RMB 0.73 per watt during the same period [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][8]. Core Insights - The company has released a performance forecast indicating a loss of 200-300 million RMB for 1H25, which aligns with market expectations due to a decline in battery prices following a surge in installations in mainland China [6]. - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Schmid Pekintaş Energy to establish a 5GW solar cell production base in Turkey, which is expected to enhance its overseas capacity and market presence [6]. - Recent government meetings suggest a potential turnaround in the solar supply side, with material prices beginning to recover [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023: 18,657 million RMB, 2024: 9,952 million RMB, 2025E: 8,431 million RMB, 2026E: 13,874 million RMB, 2027E: 15,397 million RMB, with a significant year-on-year growth of 60.9% in 2023 followed by a decline in subsequent years [5][11]. - Net profit forecasts show a loss in 2024 and 2025E, with expected profits of 1,427 million RMB in 2026 and 1,726 million RMB in 2027 [5][11]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.59 RMB in 2023, dropping to -2.58 RMB in 2024, and recovering to 4.88 RMB in 2026 and 5.90 RMB in 2027 [5][11]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company has been adjusted to 49.82 RMB, reflecting a 10.2x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [6][7]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 9,538.81 million RMB, with a 52-week high of 80.40 RMB and a low of 34.80 RMB [4][6]. Market Position - The company has a significant overseas revenue contribution, accounting for 51.9% in 1H25, although this is a decrease from 58% in 1Q25 [6]. - The strategic move to establish a production base in Turkey is aimed at capturing local market opportunities and facilitating exports to higher-priced markets like the USA [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Neutral" from a previous rating due to limited valuation attractiveness after a significant stock price increase [2][7]. Core Views - The approval of a private placement will alleviate the company's financial pressure, with plans to raise RMB 3.5 billion, primarily for a solar cell project [7]. - The company is expected to significantly reduce losses in Q2 2025 due to a higher sales proportion of premium BC components in overseas markets [7]. - The supply side of the photovoltaic industry is anticipated to improve following recent government meetings aimed at regulating low-price competition and enhancing product quality [7]. - The target price for the company has been raised to RMB 16.50, reflecting an increase in valuation from 14 times to 18 times the 2026 earnings [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a decline in 2023 to RMB 27,170 million, followed by a significant drop in 2024 to RMB 11,155 million, before rebounding to RMB 22,800 million in 2025 [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to be negative in 2024 at RMB (5,319) million, with a gradual recovery projected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 2,622 million by 2027 [3][11]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be negative in 2024 at RMB (2.91), with a return to positive EPS of RMB 1.43 by 2027 [3][11]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 35.3 in 2023, with a significant drop to 10.2 by 2027, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [3][11]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 32.76%, with a 52-week high of RMB 16.49 and a low of RMB 7.39 [6][10]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 78.98 million shares, indicating active trading interest [6].