2025 年 12 月 30 日 人民币汇率：破 7 或可持续，但升值节奏或较平缓 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济点评 何宁（分析师） 潘纬桢（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 偏弱美元下，人民币汇率持续出现升值 1. 美元指数偏弱，或是近期人民币升值的关键催化因素。虽然人民币汇率（美 元兑人民币汇率，下同）在 2024 年 9 月后再度破 7，离岸人民币汇率更是突破 6.99。人民币 11 月以来出现了较为明显的升值。但横向比较看，人民币的升值 并不算突出。11 月以来（截至 12 月 29 日）在岸、离岸人民币汇率分别升值约 1.5%、1.75%，同期美元指数回落约 1.74%，英镑、欧元、加元兑美元分别升值 约 2.8%、2.1%、2.3%。再看 2025 年的汇率走势，人民币累计升值约 4%，美元 指数则下跌约 10%，因此偏弱美元或是人民币汇率升值的关键催化因素。 证书编号：S0790522110002 panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040006 事件：11 月以来人民币兑美元汇率出现了一定程度的升值，离岸&在岸人民币汇 率在 12 月 30 日均升破 7，引 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese economy, focusing on the impact of currency exchange rates, particularly the renminbi (RMB), on exports and monetary policy [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Export Surplus Accumulation**: China's export surplus has accelerated, attributed to price differences between China and the US, as well as other countries. This trend reflects a long-term shift in competitiveness due to China's low inflation amidst global inflation [1][2]. - **Increase in Corporate Foreign Exchange Settlement**: There has been a significant increase in corporate foreign exchange settlement surplus, indicating a shift from hoarding US dollars to converting them into RMB assets. This trend may lead to upward pressure on the RMB and requires the central bank to consider increasing monetary supply to meet market demand [1][3]. - **RMB Appreciation and Economic Transition**: RMB appreciation plays a crucial role in China's economic transition. Historical examples from Japan and South Korea suggest that currency appreciation can indicate successful economic transformation. High-tech industries may benefit, while labor-intensive sectors could face challenges [1][5]. - **Impact on Domestic Demand and Prices**: RMB appreciation has complex effects on domestic demand and prices. It may lower import prices while simultaneously increasing domestic prices for goods, leading to a dual effect on inflation [3][9]. - **Central Bank's Monetary Policy Strategy**: The central bank's strategy has evolved through different market phases, focusing on nominal GDP growth and balancing monetary supply with market changes. The current phase of RMB appreciation presents a dilemma between supporting exports and allowing natural currency appreciation [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Shift in Corporate Behavior**: The current trend of increasing foreign exchange settlements suggests a growing confidence among enterprises in the RMB, which could indicate a long-term shift in currency dynamics [6]. - **International and Domestic Environment Changes**: The changing international landscape, including US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar, alongside rising domestic asset returns, influences corporate preferences for holding RMB assets [7][8]. - **Future Monetary Policy Predictions**: Depending on nominal GDP trends, two scenarios for monetary policy and their impact on the bond market can be anticipated for 2026. A rebound in nominal GDP may lead to tighter monetary policy, while continued low GDP may necessitate more accommodative measures [12][13].