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中国电力(2380.HK):上半年火电点火价差有望优于预期 目前股息率仍吸引;上调目标价
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-28 18:27
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight year-on-year increase in total power generation of 0.3% for the first four months of the year, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation, while thermal power generation declined due to asset sales [1][2] Group 1: Power Generation Performance - Total power generation for the company in January to April remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Wind and solar power generation saw substantial increases of 32.1% and 13.6% respectively [1] - Thermal power generation decreased by 14.2% due to the sale of equity at the end of last year [1] - Hydropower generation experienced a significant drop in April, with a year-on-year decline of 53.3% and a month-on-month decline of 26.5% due to fluctuations in water inflow [1] Group 2: Fuel Costs and Profitability - The price of thermal coal weakened in the second quarter, leading to an expected improvement in the price differential for thermal power generation in the first half of the year [1] - The company anticipates a 2% higher price differential for thermal power generation than previously expected due to a more than 7% drop in domestic thermal coal prices since the end of March [1] - The fuel cost forecast for the thermal power segment has been reduced by 1% to RMB 0.249 per kilowatt-hour, reflecting an approximate 8% year-on-year decrease [1] Group 3: Financial Adjustments and Valuation - The company has adjusted its 2025 water power utilization hours down by about 1% to reflect weaker generation in April [2] - Following adjustments to the financial model, the profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 1.0% and 1.4% respectively [2] - The valuation standard for the water power segment has been raised to 1.9 times the 2025 book value, up from 1.5 times, based on the asset injection valuation [2] - The target price for the company has been revised upward to HKD 3.77 from HKD 3.51 based on a segmented valuation approach [2] Group 4: Shareholder Confidence and Dividends - The parent company has increased its stake in the company, indicating confidence in its development, with a total increase of 1% over the past 12 months [2] - The current dividend yield of 6% for 2025 and 7% for 2026 remains attractive to investors despite market fluctuations [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these factors [2]
SEA(SE US):利润好于预期,电商规模效应显现
HTSC· 2025-05-15 04:30
证券研究报告 1Q25 电商收入同增 28.3%至 35.2 亿美元,咯低于一致预期的同增 30.3%。 板块经调整 EBITDA 为 2.6 亿美元,对应经调整 EBITDA 利润率 7.5%,同 比改善 8.3pp,管理层表示利润改善主因规模扩张、成本优化和变现率提升。 1Q25 电商订单量与 GMV 分别同增 19%/22%,管理层表示正持续提升对卖 家的服务质量以推动更多商家使用广告工具,1Q25 参与投放卖家数量和平 均广告支出分别同增 22%/28%,并维持全年电商 GMV 增长 20%的指引。 电子支付:贷款规模实现快速增长,品牌更名以体现与电商协同性 1Q25 电子支付收入同增 57.6%至 7.9 亿美元,优于一致预期的同增 51.3%。 板块经调整 EBITDA 2.4 亿美元,同比+62.4%,对应经调整 EBITDA 利润 率 30.7%。1Q25末,Monee 贷款余额约 58 亿美元(4Q24:51 亿美元), 不良贷款占比约为 1.1%,环比咯有下降。管理层宣布将品牌名从 SeaMoney 更改为 Monee,以体现与 Shopee 的协同联系,我们期待该业务继续发挥 与电商的协 ...
Sea Limited(SE):季报点评:利润好于预期,电商规模效应显现
HTSC· 2025-05-15 03:04
1Q25 SEA 收入为 48.4 亿美元,同增 29.6%,略低于 VA(Visible Alpha) 一致预期(口径下同)的同增 31.2%,我们认为主因游戏递延收入较多和电 商收入略低于预期。经调整 EBITDA 9.5 亿美元,好于一致预期的 7.0 亿美 元。管理层维持 2025 年电商 GMV 增长 20%的指引,并表示游戏板块 2025 年活跃用户数和预定量有望实现双位数增长。建议关注规模效应逐渐显现后 的利润持续改善趋势。"增持"。 证券研究报告 SEA (SE US) 利润好于预期,电商规模效应显现 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 15 日│美国 | 互联网 | 电商:业务规模扩张推动利润率改善明显,广告工具渗透稳步提升 1Q25 电商收入同增 28.3%至 35.2 亿美元,略低于一致预期的同增 30.3%。 板块经调整 EBITDA 为 2.6 亿美元,对应经调整 EBITDA 利润率 7.5%,同 比改善 8.3pp,管理层表示利润改善主因规模扩张、成本优化和变现率提升。 1Q25 电商订单量 ...
泰和新材:年报点评:氨纶景气承压,静待底部反转-20250507
Orient Securities· 2025-05-07 10:23
泰和新材 002254.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入 (维持) | | --- | --- | | 股价(2025年05月06日) | 10.45 元 | | 目标价格 | 10.75 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 12.71/7.72 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(万股) | 86,295/81,844 | | A 股市值(百万元) | 9,018 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 石油化工 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 05 月 07 日 | 1 周 1 月 3 月 12 月 绝对表现% 2.96 4.08 14.96 -3.06 相对表现% 2.07 5.45 15.85 -7.18 沪深 300% 0.89 -1.37 -0.89 4.12 | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860517120003 | | 顾雪莺 | guxueying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S08605230800 ...
泰和新材(002254):氨纶景气承压,静待底部反转
Orient Securities· 2025-05-07 09:34
泰和新材 002254.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入 (维持) | | --- | --- | | 股价(2025年05月06日) | 10.45 元 | | 目标价格 | 10.75 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 12.71/7.72 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(万股) | 86,295/81,844 | | A 股市值(百万元) | 9,018 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 石油化工 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 05 月 07 日 | 1 周 1 月 3 月 12 月 绝对表现% 2.96 4.08 14.96 -3.06 相对表现% 2.07 5.45 15.85 -7.18 沪深 300% 0.89 -1.37 -0.89 4.12 芳纶业务稳步增长,氨纶盈利承压 2024-05-02 | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860517120003 | | 顾雪莺 | guxueying@orientsec.com.c ...
药明康德:TIDES业务带动1Q25业绩高增长-20250429
HTSC· 2025-04-29 04:20
证券研究报告 药明康德 (2359 HK/603259 CH) | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 28 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 医疗服务 | 港股通 TIDES 业务带动 1Q25 业绩高增长 公司发布 25 年一季报,1Q25 实现营收 96.55 亿元(yoy+20.96%),归母 净利 36.72 亿元(yoy+89.06%),扣非净利 23.29 亿元(yoy+14.50%),经 调整 non-IFRS 归母净利润 26.8 亿元,+40.0%yoy。归母利润远高于扣非 利润主因出售药明合联部分股权确认非流动性资产处置损益 14.1 亿元。公 司在手订单较快增长,我们预期 25-26 年收入增长提速,维持"买入"评级。 在手订单增长持续提速,加大股东回报 截至 1H24/9M24/2024/1Q25,公司在手订单分别 431.0/438.2/493.1/523.3 亿 元 ( 其 中 2024 和 1Q25 为 持 续 经 营 业 务 在 手 订 单 ), +27.2/35.2/47.0/47.1%yoy ...