人工智能热潮正将科技股估值推至历史高位，但英国央行发出了迄今为止最明确的警告之一：AI相关股票估值已然"过高"，而支持其发展的关键 基础设施（如数据中心）正面临"瓶颈"风险，这可能引发市场"大幅回调"。 英国央行在其最新的金融政策委员会会议后指出，市场对AI的乐观预期已将股票估值推至"紧张"水平。央行警告称，AI领域的市场集中度日益增 加，一旦围绕AI影响的乐观情绪减弱，股票市场将尤其脆弱。 该央行进一步强调，AI进展面临的"实质性瓶颈"，例如电力、数据或大宗商品供应链的限制，也可能损害企业估值，尤其是那些收入增长依赖于 AI基础设施高额投资预期的公司。"资产价格出现大幅回调的风险仍然很高"。 估值已达"紧张"水平，基础设施瓶颈成关键风险 英国央行认为，从多项指标来看，股票市场估值显得颇为紧张，尤其是专注于人工智能的科技公司。估值的高企与市场指数内部日益增加的集中 度相结合，放大了市场的脆弱性。如果投资者对AI潜力的预期变得不那么乐观，市场的下行风险将十分显著。目前，AI热潮已成为推动股市创下 自互联网泡沫以来最高估值的单一最大动力。 市场的乐观情绪很大程度上建立在对AI基础设施持续大规模投资的预期之上。央行 ...

Core Insights - The discussion around the "AI bubble" has cooled down, suggesting a shift in market sentiment towards long-term investment strategies rather than timing the market [1] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's latest research indicates that major tech companies are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in AI infrastructure, which raises concerns about potential bubble risks [1]

本文来自微信公众号：未尽研究 （ID：Weijin_Research），作者：未尽研究，题图来自：AI生成 AI正在把科技与资本结合的力量，推向一个新的市场高度。先看这张图，基本上能说明过去40年美国经济与产业的演变。 1985年初的美国十大公司，到2015年仅剩下两家，到2025年全部消失。1985年，主导的是石油公司，占了4家。科技类的企业2家，IBM和AT&T，制造业 还占了相当大的比重，如通用汽车、通用电气、杜邦，还有柯达！最后十年消失的两家是埃克森石油和通用电气。40年前的前十大公司，没有一家金融和 科技公司，也没有一家医药企业。 每过10年，至少有一半的席位易主，5家到6家企业上榜，也就是说，同样数量的公司落榜。在1985年到2015年的40年期间，10家最大公司占标普500成分 公司市值的比重，基本稳定在20%左右，仅用了10年，这一比重就达到了接近40%。人工智能加速了这一演变。现在的前十大公司里，除了伯克希尔哈撒 韦和JP Morgan两家金融投资公司之外，其他的全部都是科技巨头。 英伟达目前所占的市值，已经达到了4.6万亿美元，超过了所有医药巨头市值的总和。 美国资本市场仍然起到了引领技术 ...

重磅非农就业报告因美国政府关门缺席，但医药股重拾升势，AI投资与基建热潮的支持科技股保住涨势，主要美股指周五再创新高。 三大美股指继续集体高开，早盘齐创盘中历史新高，均将连涨六日，标普将创7月末以来最长连涨日，道指一度涨超1%。美股盘前传出OpenAI与 日立达成合作、贝莱德将达成数据中心收购交易的消息，凸显AI投资火爆，芯片股指数势将继续收创新高，但科技股早盘受到逊色的打压。 亚市盘中，日立宣布与OpenAI签署谅解备忘录，合作建设AI基础设施，东京上市的日立收涨10.3%。富士通宣布与英伟达扩大战略合 作，打造全栈AI基础设施，富士通日股收涨3.7%美股盘前，媒体称，贝莱德接近达成收购400亿美元Aligned数据中心公司。 美股早盘，美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布9月美国ISM服务业指数超预期下降至50，创2020年来新低，商业活动分项指数自新冠疫情 以来首次进入收缩区间。数据公布后，对利率敏感的两年期美债收益率短线下行、刷新日低；标普回吐部分涨幅，纳指短线转跌。盘 初涨近0.8%的英伟达曾小幅转跌。 美股早盘，美联储今年FOMC会议票委古尔斯比称，他担心降息过快可能会加剧通胀和失业率上升的风险。两年期 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced high-level fluctuations before the holiday, with technology and large-cap defensive styles showing phase-specific performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market Index increased by 1.96% and 6.47%, respectively. The small-cap index saw deeper declines [2][17] - The U.S. market faced downward pressure due to concerns over high valuations, with the Nasdaq dropping by 1.8% over the week. The core PCE price index in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with expectations and indicating stable inflation [2][3] - Domestic industrial profits improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4% in August. The equipment manufacturing sector remained a key support, with double-digit profit growth in industries such as railways, aerospace, and electrical machinery [2][5] Recent Dynamics - Industrial profits turned positive with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% from January to August, driven by policy effects and low base effects. The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase, particularly in specialized equipment and electronics [3][4] - The government has rolled out new growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and construction materials, aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% in the steel sector [5][6] Market Performance - In the last week, the A-share market saw most sectors rise, with the semiconductor silicon wafer index leading with a 13.1% increase. The power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors also performed well, with gains of 3.86%, 3.52%, and 3.51%, respectively [13][17] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market remained above 2 trillion yuan, indicating active market participation despite fluctuations [2][17] Policy Tracking - Recent policies include the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Plan" and measures to promote service exports, which aim to enhance the competitiveness of key sectors and support economic recovery [5][6]

中信证券表示, 当前市场已形成"资源+出海+新质生产力"的清晰配置框架，传统资源品在全球资本开支 不足与地缘博弈下的供给约束、中企出海带来的ROE重塑、以及端侧AI生态重构带来的战略机遇，共 同构成行情核心驱动力。 资源安全、企业出海和科技竞争依然是最重要的结构性行情线索，对应的是资源+出海+新质生产力的 行业配置框架，除此之外，值得博弈的方向有限。对于资源板块，行情的本质驱动力还是传统资源行业 在全球高利率环境下持续投资不足带来的供给受限，复杂的地缘环境和各国的安全自主主张导致此类供 给波动更加频繁。对于企业出海，市场会逐步意识到中企出海和全球化是本轮行情最核心但又相对隐晦 的基本面和行情线索，贸易环境的稳定以及中国的反内卷是维系行情的两个非常重要的条件，中美形成 相互制衡的微妙平衡对当下的行情至关重要，中企只有站在全球市场才能看到不断抬高的市值天花板， 10月的APEC会议和四中全会是两个非常重要的验证点。对于科技竞争，中企正从战略隐忍走向战略进 取，中美科技竞争走向白热化，未来AI竞争从云端蔓延至端侧，AI Agent在端侧设备普及，已经固化的 移动互联应用生态壁垒可能再次重构，带来不亚于移动互联应用初 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes that resource security, Chinese enterprises going global, and technological competition will be key drivers of market structural trends in the foreseeable future. These themes correspond to an industry allocation framework of resources, globalization, and new productive forces [1]. Group 1: Resource Security - Traditional resource industries are facing frequent supply shocks due to insufficient investment in a high-interest-rate environment, particularly in developed countries where private sector investment remains weak [1]. - The capital expenditure of traditional industrial enterprises in Europe and the U.S. has been low, with Japan's machine tool orders to Europe and the U.S. showing 28 consecutive months of negative growth [1]. - Predictions for major copper mining companies indicate a downward adjustment in production forecasts from 14.89 million tons to 14.21 million tons for 2025, with growth rates dropping from 6.4% to 0.6% [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions and national security policies are leading to more frequent supply shocks, as seen in the Democratic Republic of Congo's new cobalt export policies and Indonesia's tightening of nickel exports [2]. - Countries rich in strategic resources are increasingly recognizing the unsustainability of long-term low pricing and are controlling supply to maintain favorable price levels [2]. Group 3: Enterprises Going Global - The globalization of Chinese enterprises is a core fundamental driver of the current market, with companies generating over 20% of their revenue from overseas contributing 40% of profits and 37% of market capitalization [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) for non-financial A-share companies with significant overseas revenue has increased from around 7% in early 2022 to about 10%, while other companies' ROE has declined from 9% to around 6% [3]. - A stable trade environment is crucial for the sustainability of Chinese enterprises' globalization efforts, with the recent A-share market rally linked to improved trade relations following negotiations [4]. Group 4: Technological Competition - Chinese tech giants are increasingly clarifying their AI strategies, with significant investments announced by companies like Alibaba and Tencent, indicating a shift towards aggressive AI infrastructure development [6]. - The global AI investment market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.9% from 2025 to 2029, highlighting the competitive landscape [6]. - The potential shift of AI focus from cloud to edge computing presents significant opportunities for domestic applications, allowing for a resurgence in the Chinese mobile internet sector [7].

Core Viewpoint - David Einhorn warns that the extreme capital expenditures by major tech companies in AI may lead to significant capital destruction despite potential long-term benefits [2][3][6] Group 1: AI Investment Concerns - Major tech companies like Apple, Meta, and OpenAI are committing trillions of dollars to AI infrastructure, raising concerns about the sustainability and rationality of such investments [3][5] - Einhorn questions whether the current scale of AI investments is reasonable, stating that the figures are so extreme that they are difficult to comprehend [6] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Einhorn highlights weak job growth and stagnant productivity as indicators that a recession may be on the horizon [2][3] - He reiterates long-term concerns about structural issues in the market, suggesting that fundamental flaws in market mechanisms are eroding the investment process itself [2][3] Group 3: Historical Context of Warnings - Einhorn's warnings are taken seriously due to his past success in predicting the 2008 financial crisis, where he accurately identified issues with Lehman Brothers' balance sheet [7][9] - His reputation was built on making a successful bet against high-risk financial stocks during the market collapse, leading to superior performance for his fund [8][9]

盘面上，固态电池、AI应用、AI算力硬件、消费电子等科技成长方向集体爆发，多只个股股价盘中创 下历史新高。 固态电池概念再度走强 昨日，固态电池概念股再度走强，亿纬锂能盘中一度涨超9%，截至收盘上涨6.47%。宁德时代A股涨逾 3%，H股涨超5%，二者股价盘中均创历史新高。 创业板指日K线图 张大伟 制图 ◎记者 汪友若 9月25日，A股市场震荡上行，创业板指领涨，续创逾3年新高，盘中一度涨超2%。自4月8日以来，创 业板指累计涨幅近80%。截至收盘，创业板指涨1.58%，报3235.76点；上证指数微跌0.01%，报3853.30 点；深证成指涨0.67%，报13445.90点。沪深北三市合计成交额达2.39万亿元。 消息面上，9月24日，在一年一度的云栖大会上，阿里巴巴集团宣布，目前正推进3800亿元的AI基础设 施建设，并计划追加更大的投入。对比2022年，2032年阿里云全球数据中心的能耗规模将提升10倍，这 意味着阿里云算力投入将是指数级提升。 招银国际研报分析称，本次云栖大会进一步印证了中国AI及云行业相关需求持续起量的趋势，行业发 展呈现模型能力持续提升、基础设施能力持续优化、应用生态逐步繁荣的 ...

股指早报 A 股缩量反弹，股指维持震荡整固 2025 年 9 月 25 日 股指期货早报 2025.9.25 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 8 月新屋销售总数年化 80 万户，高于预期 65 和前 值 66.4，数据指向美房地产的韧性。另外美联储官员古尔斯比表示 下次会议不愿支持降息。在昨日美联储主席鲍威尔向市场释放对后续 美联储货币政策不确定信号后，美联储官员释放的鹰派信号指向目前 美联储官员内部观点差异较大。打压了市场对于美联储降息预期。隔 夜美元指数上涨，美债收益率短端和长端上行，黄金下跌，美三大股 指集体下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨，离岸人民币汇率贬值。目 前地缘政治不确定性增加，俄罗斯被制裁风险也在上升，资产波动率 在上升。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘上涨 0.83%，深成指上涨 1.8%，创业板 指上涨 2.28%，市场呈现反弹走势。在 924 一周年，上一轮指数快涨， 此轮明显节奏慢下来，且主要是围绕科技板块的结构性行情。板块上 看，电力设备、电子、传媒、计算机、房地产涨幅居前，银行、煤炭、 通信下跌。全市场 4457 只个股上涨，852 只个股下跌。消息上看， 阿里 CEO 吴泳铭表示在推进三年 3 ...