Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is expected to continue a trend of stabilization with a slight decline in the short term, as evidenced by a 10% month-on-month decrease in transactions in May 2025 compared to the new housing market which saw an increase [1][22]. Group 1: Market Trends - The transaction volume of second-hand homes has been steadily declining, with a notable 10% decrease in May 2025 across 30 key cities [1]. - The proportion of transactions in the price range of 3-6 million yuan has significantly adjusted downwards, indicating a trend of consumption downgrade among first-time and upgrading buyers [2][3]. - The low-price segment continues to see an upward trend in transaction concentration, with 34.4% of transactions in Shenzhen being for properties priced under 3 million yuan, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase month-on-month [3]. Group 2: Transaction Characteristics - In terms of area, the 90-120 square meter segment has seen an increase in transaction share, primarily due to its suitability for family needs, while smaller units (80 square meters and below) have experienced a decline in market share [5]. - The transaction concentration in mid-value areas is increasing, with notable growth in districts like Fengtai and Changping in Beijing, and Longgang and Longhua in Shenzhen [8][10]. Group 3: Price Adjustments - The proportion of second-hand homes with price reductions has increased in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, while Shanghai remains stable at a high level of 56% [12][16]. - The price reduction strategy has been particularly effective for budget-friendly properties, with over half of the transactions in affordable segments in Beijing and Shanghai reflecting price cuts [16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to face a seasonal decline, influenced by a slowdown in demand following the peak of school district purchases and a lack of new listings, especially in the luxury segment [21][22]. - The market is transitioning to a buyer's market, where buyers are increasingly considering location, amenities, and price, leading to longer transaction cycles for less desirable properties [22].

Core Viewpoint - The new housing market in major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced a strong start in 2025, with February transaction volumes leading and cumulative year-on-year growth exceeding 20% in the first two months. The driving factors for this growth vary by city [1][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first two months of 2025, the market continued to stabilize, with transaction volumes in 100 cities remaining roughly flat compared to the same period last year. However, 16 key cities showed cumulative year-on-year growth [2]. - The new housing transaction volume in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of around 30% in the first two months [3]. - The average monthly transaction volume in Shanghai and Guangzhou for the first two months of 2025 is significantly lower than the monthly averages for 2024 and 2023, while Shenzhen's average monthly transaction volume is 17% higher than that of 2023, indicating signs of market stabilization [4]. Group 2: Price Segments - In terms of transaction price segments, Guangzhou's market is driven by demand for properties priced below 2 million, while Shenzhen saw significant growth in the 2-4 million segment [6]. - In Shanghai, the high-end purchasing power remains strong, with the proportion of transactions in the 10-30 million price range increasing from 19.47% in 2024 to 22.79% in 2025, a rise of 3.32 percentage points. Conversely, the mid-range segment (6-8 million) saw the most significant decline [7]. - In Shenzhen, the proportion of transactions in the 2-4 million segment accounted for nearly 30% of total transactions, with an increase of 3.76 percentage points [7]. Group 3: Area Segments - In terms of area segments, Guangzhou saw a notable increase in the proportion of transactions for properties sized 80-90 square meters, while Shenzhen experienced significant growth in the 100-120 square meter segment [9]. - The 100-120 square meter segment in Shenzhen increased from 19.75% in 2024 to 22.75% in 2025, catering to the demand for three-bedroom units that meet the needs of buyers looking for a "one-step" upgrade [10]. Group 4: Regional Distribution - The transaction proportions in secondary core areas of Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have increased, with notable growth in Yangpu District (Shanghai), Yuexiu District (Guangzhou), and Pingshan District (Shenzhen) [12]. - For instance, the transaction proportion in Guangzhou's Yuexiu District surged from less than 1% in 2024 to 2.78% in the first two months of 2025, driven by the concentrated supply of new projects [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The short-term outlook suggests that Shanghai's new housing transactions have not yet recovered to the levels seen in 2023-2024, with future transaction volumes largely dependent on the quality of new housing supply. Shenzhen is expected to see further release of purchasing power due to new policies, while Guangzhou's current transaction growth is primarily attributed to a low base from the previous year, with sustainability still in question [15].