9月恰逢季度末，京沪深杭二手房成交或将迎来放量行情 ◎ 文/俞倩倩 步入2025年三季度以来，二手房成交热度稳步回落，逐月下跌，但前8月累计同比增幅仍显著好于新房。据CRIC监测数据，2025年 8月30个重点城市二手房成交累计同比增9%，与新房成交环比转降形成鲜明对比。究竟2025年8月二手房市场成交结构有哪些变 化？又反映出当前客群怎样的置业偏好呢？ 刚需发力，京沪深杭200万以内成交占比同比持增，高端需求持稳 从 成交总价段 来看当前居民当前购买力， 主要呈现出以下特征 ： 一是京沪深杭低总价段即200万以内2025年8月成交套数占比同比持增，极致刚需客群仍是成交主力。 以上海为例，2025年8月总价 200万以内房源成交套数占比为43.78%，环比上升1.44pcts,同比上升6.45pcts；市场份额有进一步扩大趋势。而北京、深圳、杭州 总价200万以内成交套数占比同比也分别增长了3.24pcts、1.02pcts和1.8pcts。值得关注的是，刚需客群仍是二手房市场购买主 力，北京、上海、杭州低总价段成交套数占比均在40%以上。 二是刚改需求"塌陷"，京沪深300-6000万成交占比同比持降，客户 ...

Core Viewpoint - After five consecutive months of decline, the second-hand housing market in Hangzhou has shown signs of recovery in August, with a total of 6,633 transactions, marking a slight decrease from July but a stable performance compared to the previous year [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In August, the average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in the city was 28,178 yuan per square meter, a slight increase of 0.2% from July and a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [2]. - The total number of transactions in August was 6,633, which is higher than January and February but lower than the peak of 12,413 transactions in March [2]. - The proportion of transactions for properties priced below 2 million yuan has risen to 49.4%, indicating a strong demand from first-time buyers [2]. Group 2: Transaction Highlights - Among the top 20 transactions, 8 properties had an average price below 20,000 yuan per square meter, with the lowest being 9,082 yuan per square meter for the Yuexiu Xinghui City, which saw 23 transactions [3]. - Five newly delivered properties with less than one year of occupancy were among the top 20 transactions, indicating a resurgence in demand for quality new homes [3]. - The Jiangxiangyunlu project in Xiaoshan was particularly notable, with 31 transactions and a remarkable 520% increase from the previous month, priced at 16,294 yuan per square meter [4]. Group 3: Emerging Trends - The performance of relocation housing has been outstanding, with three such projects entering the top ten transactions in August, all being newly delivered properties [4]. - The original reconstruction community, Zhejiang Gong University New Village, recorded 14 transactions, a 75% increase from July, with an average price of 41,225 yuan per square meter [5]. - The Du Shiyuan project in Yuhang also performed well, with 13 transactions and a 160% increase from the previous month, priced at 12,959 yuan per square meter [5].

01 政策背景：稳楼市，促经济，刚需不再是梦 购房新政靴子落地：重磅利好直击刚需，市场复苏动力几何？ 近几日，关于购房新政的传言如同春风吹拂，在微信群和朋友圈掀起层层涟漪，国家"大招"将至的呼声 此起彼伏。对于那些怀揣安居梦想的刚需一族而言，这消息无疑投下了一颗颗巨石，激起层层恐 慌："究竟是何方神圣？首付比例是否会松动？贷款利率又将如何调整？我的购房计划是否还要继续？" 尤其是一线城市，如北京、上海、深圳等，那些正值年华、风华正茂的年轻人们，他们或许刚刚迈入而 立之年，月收入勉强维持在一万五左右，却要面对动辄每平方米十万元的房价。计算下来，即便不吃不 喝，积攒够首付款也需要漫长的十年甚至更久。此刻，听到风声鹤唳，怎能安坐？ 然而，就在大家翘首以盼之际，住建部与中国人民银行联手，为首套房贷款政策带来了颠覆性的调整。 那么，这些细致入微的改革究竟会如何落地，又将为市场带来怎样的改变？让我们一同深入探究。 房贷利率迎来"降温"： 在LPR（贷款市场报价利率）下调的背景下，首套房贷款利率的最高上限被设定 在3.6%，相比此前的平均水平，利率下调了1.2个百分点。以广州的李先生（32岁）为例，他申请300万 元的贷款 ...

Group 1 - In July, Shenzhen's real estate market showed a trend of cooling in the primary market and stabilization in the secondary market, with primary residential transactions down 18.7% month-on-month to 2,664 units, marking a 17-month low [1] - The total transaction volume for both primary and secondary residential properties in July was 7,320 units, a decrease of 5.88% from June's 7,777 units [1] - The differentiation in the primary and secondary housing markets may be influenced by the supply structure, with high prices or poor locations of new developments driving buyers towards the secondary market [1] Group 2 - The secondary residential market in Shenzhen remained stable, with transaction volumes exceeding 4,500 units for three consecutive months from May to July, indicating a strong performance during the "golden three months" of March and April [2] - In July, the recorded volume of secondary residential transactions reached 5,669 units, reflecting a 2.2% month-on-month increase, with consistent performance above 5,000 units from May to July [2] - The demand for affordable housing is being supported by first-time buyers, with 39.69% of new residential transactions in July being for properties under 90 square meters, an increase of over 2 percentage points from June [2] Group 3 - The proportion of secondary housing transactions priced below 3 million yuan increased significantly to 27.2% in July, up 3 percentage points from earlier in the year, indicating a growing demand for affordable small units [3] - Policy measures such as reduced down payment ratios and optimized standards for ordinary residential properties have lowered the barriers for first-time buyers, directly stimulating demand in the under 3 million yuan segment [3] - The increase in the share of affordable housing transactions reflects the impact of price adjustments and policy incentives on first-time homebuyers [3]

Core Insights - The real estate market in Harbin has shown a positive trend in second-hand housing transactions, with a total of 31,394 units sold in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase [1][6] - The demand for housing is primarily driven by first-time buyers, accounting for approximately 60% of transactions, while improvement-oriented buyers make up about 35% [5][6] Group 1: Market Performance - The second-hand housing transaction volume increased by approximately 16% year-on-year for a major real estate company, with the average transaction cycle shortening to 15-20 days [3][5] - The overall transaction volume in the first quarter was 13,435 units, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase, while the second quarter saw a steady performance with slight increases in April (3.47%), May (1.74%), and June (3.93%) [3][6] Group 2: Buyer Demographics - The primary buyers are young first-time homebuyers who are sensitive to total price and area, favoring smaller, lower-priced units [6][8] - Improvement-oriented buyers are more focused on housing quality and amenities, showing a significant interest in larger, high-quality units in well-managed neighborhoods [6][9] Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - Recent policy benefits, such as lower mortgage rates and tax incentives, have positively impacted the second-hand housing market, helping to stabilize transactions despite competition from new housing [8][9] - The market is experiencing increased competition due to new housing price reductions and inventory pressures, yet core areas maintain stable prices due to their superior amenities [9]

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities is experiencing a seasonal decline in activity, with a notable shift towards lower-priced properties as the primary focus for buyers, particularly among first-time homebuyers [1][18]. Market Overview - In May 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 30 key cities decreased by 10% month-on-month, while there was a slight year-on-year increase of 4%, indicating a slowdown in overall growth momentum [2]. - The market is characterized by a dual focus on first-time buyers and high-end upgrades, with a significant drop in demand for mid-range properties [6]. Buyer Behavior - First-time homebuyers remain the dominant force in the second-hand housing market, with low-priced properties (under 2 million yuan) accounting for nearly 42% of transactions in Hangzhou, reflecting a 1.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [4][9]. - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the proportion of low-priced second-hand homes continues to rise, indicating a trend of consumption downgrade among buyers [5][8]. Price Trends - The proportion of transactions for second-hand homes priced between 3 million to 6 million yuan has significantly decreased, with all segments in Shanghai showing a decline in transaction share [7]. - Conversely, the market share of low-priced properties is expanding, with Shenzhen reporting that 34.5% of transactions were for homes priced under 3 million yuan, marking a 1.2 percentage point increase month-on-month and a 6.0 percentage point increase year-on-year [7]. Property Size Preferences - In Beijing and Shanghai, the primary transaction size for second-hand homes is under 80 square meters, but this segment has seen a decline in market share, while the 90-120 square meter segment is gaining traction, suggesting a shift towards more spacious and functional homes [11]. - In Shenzhen, the main transaction sizes remain under 90 square meters, driven by the availability of newer, lower-priced units that meet the short-term needs of first-time buyers [11]. Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning to a buyer's market, where buyers are increasingly considering location, amenities, and price when making purchasing decisions, leading to longer transaction cycles for older, less functional properties in remote areas [18]. - The proportion of second-hand homes in first-time buyer segments with declining prices has increased, particularly in Beijing and Shanghai, where over half of the transactions in these segments involved price reductions [15].

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is expected to continue a trend of stabilization with a slight decline in the short term, as evidenced by a 10% month-on-month decrease in transactions in May 2025 compared to the new housing market which saw an increase [1][22]. Group 1: Market Trends - The transaction volume of second-hand homes has been steadily declining, with a notable 10% decrease in May 2025 across 30 key cities [1]. - The proportion of transactions in the price range of 3-6 million yuan has significantly adjusted downwards, indicating a trend of consumption downgrade among first-time and upgrading buyers [2][3]. - The low-price segment continues to see an upward trend in transaction concentration, with 34.4% of transactions in Shenzhen being for properties priced under 3 million yuan, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase month-on-month [3]. Group 2: Transaction Characteristics - In terms of area, the 90-120 square meter segment has seen an increase in transaction share, primarily due to its suitability for family needs, while smaller units (80 square meters and below) have experienced a decline in market share [5]. - The transaction concentration in mid-value areas is increasing, with notable growth in districts like Fengtai and Changping in Beijing, and Longgang and Longhua in Shenzhen [8][10]. Group 3: Price Adjustments - The proportion of second-hand homes with price reductions has increased in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, while Shanghai remains stable at a high level of 56% [12][16]. - The price reduction strategy has been particularly effective for budget-friendly properties, with over half of the transactions in affordable segments in Beijing and Shanghai reflecting price cuts [16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to face a seasonal decline, influenced by a slowdown in demand following the peak of school district purchases and a lack of new listings, especially in the luxury segment [21][22]. - The market is transitioning to a buyer's market, where buyers are increasingly considering location, amenities, and price, leading to longer transaction cycles for less desirable properties [22].

Core Viewpoint - The new housing market in major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced a strong start in 2025, with February transaction volumes leading and cumulative year-on-year growth exceeding 20% in the first two months. The driving factors for this growth vary by city [1][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first two months of 2025, the market continued to stabilize, with transaction volumes in 100 cities remaining roughly flat compared to the same period last year. However, 16 key cities showed cumulative year-on-year growth [2]. - The new housing transaction volume in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of around 30% in the first two months [3]. - The average monthly transaction volume in Shanghai and Guangzhou for the first two months of 2025 is significantly lower than the monthly averages for 2024 and 2023, while Shenzhen's average monthly transaction volume is 17% higher than that of 2023, indicating signs of market stabilization [4]. Group 2: Price Segments - In terms of transaction price segments, Guangzhou's market is driven by demand for properties priced below 2 million, while Shenzhen saw significant growth in the 2-4 million segment [6]. - In Shanghai, the high-end purchasing power remains strong, with the proportion of transactions in the 10-30 million price range increasing from 19.47% in 2024 to 22.79% in 2025, a rise of 3.32 percentage points. Conversely, the mid-range segment (6-8 million) saw the most significant decline [7]. - In Shenzhen, the proportion of transactions in the 2-4 million segment accounted for nearly 30% of total transactions, with an increase of 3.76 percentage points [7]. Group 3: Area Segments - In terms of area segments, Guangzhou saw a notable increase in the proportion of transactions for properties sized 80-90 square meters, while Shenzhen experienced significant growth in the 100-120 square meter segment [9]. - The 100-120 square meter segment in Shenzhen increased from 19.75% in 2024 to 22.75% in 2025, catering to the demand for three-bedroom units that meet the needs of buyers looking for a "one-step" upgrade [10]. Group 4: Regional Distribution - The transaction proportions in secondary core areas of Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have increased, with notable growth in Yangpu District (Shanghai), Yuexiu District (Guangzhou), and Pingshan District (Shenzhen) [12]. - For instance, the transaction proportion in Guangzhou's Yuexiu District surged from less than 1% in 2024 to 2.78% in the first two months of 2025, driven by the concentrated supply of new projects [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The short-term outlook suggests that Shanghai's new housing transactions have not yet recovered to the levels seen in 2023-2024, with future transaction volumes largely dependent on the quality of new housing supply. Shenzhen is expected to see further release of purchasing power due to new policies, while Guangzhou's current transaction growth is primarily attributed to a low base from the previous year, with sustainability still in question [15].