创新药风险调整成功率评估依赖现有临床数据，二期临床阶段可参考一 期数据预测，一期数据良好时，成功率预期可提高至 70%-80%，此方 法虽难量化，但有助于早期投资布局。 中国创新药企海外市场扩展主要通过"借船出海"与"造船出海"两种 模式。"借船出海"依赖与海外企业合作，而"造船出海"则需企业具 备雄厚资金实力，建立海外团队。 中国创新药获海外认可得益于工程师红利，小分子药物研发经验积累， 以及逐渐具备全球竞争力的小分子产品，使其在国际市场获得更多关注 与认可。 License out 交易流程包括寻找合作伙伴、签署保密协议、物料转移协 议、签订意向书、尽职调查及最终许可协议等步骤，并设立联合指导委 员会进行管理，需评估各阶段风险。 中国在大分子药物研发方面具有工程师红利和成本效益优势，工程师能 够高效进行细胞系发酵并筛选稳定抗体，研发速度快且质量高，研发成 本相对较低。 Q&A 创新药的估值体系如何构建？ 创新药的估值体系主要分为三部分：相对估值法、绝对估值法和风险调整。绝 对估值法通常通过现金流折现（DCF）计算每个药品的净现值（NPV）。然而， 在二级市场交流中，相对估值法更为常用。相对估值法包括三个组 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Innovative Pharmaceuticals Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the innovative pharmaceutical industry, particularly in China, discussing the valuation system and market dynamics of innovative drugs [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Revaluation of PS Valuation**: The traditional price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 3-4 times is deemed insufficient to reflect the current macroeconomic changes. A new model should consider factors such as improved net profit margins, accelerated peak sales, extended plateau periods, and positive perpetual growth rates [1]. - **Significant Increase in Net Profit Margins**: Companies like Elysium have reported net profit margins exceeding 40%, with specific drugs like Furmetin achieving over 50%. This represents an increase of more than 10% compared to a decade ago, driven by economies of scale, clinical value orientation, and a mature domestic payment system [1][4]. - **Accelerated Market Penetration of Innovative Drugs**: The time for oncology drugs to enter the medical insurance system has significantly decreased, from an average of 7.9 years in 2017 to just over one year in 2024. This rapid entry into hospitals enhances market penetration [1][5]. - **Extended Peak Plateau Period**: Regulatory controls on supply have allowed high-quality products to consolidate market share, extending the peak plateau period to an estimated 4-5 years [1][5]. - **Favorable Medical Insurance Policies**: The medical insurance system is favoring innovative drugs over generics, with a potential perpetual growth rate of 1%-2% due to the clearing of generic drug production capacity [1][5]. - **Rapid Growth of Chinese Innovative Drugs Overseas**: The number and value of Chinese innovative drugs entering international markets have surged, with Q1 exports accounting for 50% of the global total. Increased recognition in overseas academia enhances the likelihood of successful international expansion [1][6]. Additional Important Insights - **Improved Profitability of Innovative Drug Companies**: High-quality innovative pharmaceutical companies such as BeiGene, Hutchison China MediTech, and Innovent Biologics are entering a profitability phase, improving cash flow and attracting foreign investors, leading to a positive market outlook and a revaluation of the industry [2][11]. - **Changes in Valuation Calculation**: The valuation of innovative drugs typically involves calculating peak sales multiplied by the PS ratio and success probability. The current macro environment necessitates a re-evaluation of this approach, with the PS ratio potentially increasing to 4.5-5 times [3][5]. - **Marginal Impact of Domestic and International Macro Environment**: The pressure on medical insurance reserves in China is not significantly greater than in previous years, and there is a potential rebound in insurance payments. The geopolitical situation has minimal impact on the innovative pharmaceutical sector [6][7]. - **Commercialization Strategies for Chinese Companies**: Most Chinese companies utilize a "borrowing ship" model, selling patent rights to U.S. firms for clinical or commercial advancement, which avoids customs and tariffs [8]. - **Production Decisions Post-Commercialization**: Once a drug is commercialized, U.S. companies typically prefer to produce in the U.S. If they opt for Chinese companies to handle production, the customs declaration can be done at cost price, minimally affecting overall valuation [9]. - **Impact of U.S. Drug Price Controls**: U.S. government measures aimed at lowering drug prices may not significantly affect ex-factory prices due to high overseas deductions, while Chinese drugs remain competitively priced [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the innovative drug industry [12]. Core Insights - The innovative drug industry is experiencing a convergence of policy, industry, and performance factors, indicating a potential new cycle of value reassessment [4][9]. - The previous valuation methods under "bear market thinking" may no longer be applicable, necessitating a re-evaluation of the valuation system for innovative drug companies [9][10]. Policy Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is characterized by strong regulation and exhibits a certain "policy cyclicality." Since 2024, supportive policies for the entire innovative drug industry chain have gradually been implemented, including the introduction of incremental insurance funds and adjustments to centralized procurement [7][24]. - From 2018 to 2024, the sales of newly negotiated drugs during the agreement period exceeded 540 billion yuan, accounting for only 2% of the total expenditure of the medical insurance fund during this period, indicating significant room for growth [32]. Industry Insights - Chinese innovative drugs are gaining global recognition, with a record number of 126 companies showcasing nearly 300 research results at the 2025 AACR conference, marking a historical high for both participation and achievements [33][35]. - The quality and quantity of business development (BD) transactions for Chinese innovative drugs have significantly improved, with substantial out-bound deals in areas such as ADCs and dual antibodies [33][40]. - The number of original innovative drugs developed in China has surpassed that of the United States, with the proportion of first-in-class (FIC) drugs increasing to 24% globally [36]. Performance Insights - The leading biopharma companies are showing improved performance, with the total net profit of A/H innovative drug-related companies projected to reach 11.67 billion yuan in 2024, a significant increase from 670 million yuan in 2023 [70]. - Companies like Innovent Biologics and BeiGene are expected to achieve profitability by 2025, while others like Rongchang Biologics and Kelun-Biotech are narrowing their loss trends [70]. - The BD business for domestic innovative drug companies has become a sustainable profit-generating business, contributing positively to cash flow and overall profitability [72].