在英伟达财报稍后出炉前，投资者保持观望，而不确定的英国政治背景和英国央行进一步降息的前景使 英镑的近期前景变得不利。 英镑兑美元和欧元周三走高，投资者密切关注利率分化和市场情绪。 英镑往往是风险敏感型货币，与全球股市密切相关。 英国央行行长安德鲁-贝利（Andrew Bailey）周二表示，3月份降息是可能的，尽管他指出最近的数据显 示服务价格通胀并没有像人们希望的那样得到缓解。 英国央行在2月初转而更加鸽派 ，当时英国央行出人意料地以5：4的票数维持政策稳定，并表示如果通 胀继续下降，利率可能会下降。 英镑兑欧元上涨0.10%，报87.17便士。英镑兑欧元上周触及87.52便士，为12月19日以来最低。 英镑兑美元上涨0.18%，报1.3511美元。 在下周英国债务管理办公室（UK Debt Management Office）发布债券发行计划之前，英国公债收益率正 受到密切关注，该计划将在财政大臣雷切尔-里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）向议会提交最新的经济增长和借 贷预测之后发布。 英国10年期国债收益率在周二跌至2024年12月以来最低 ，报4.29%，周三上涨了两个基点。 法国巴黎银行（BNP P ...

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a high of 1.3338, supported by improved UK services PMI data, while the dollar remains under pressure ahead of anticipated Fed rate cuts [1]. Economic Data - The UK services PMI was revised up from an initial value of 50.5 to 51.3, remaining above the expansion threshold of 50.0. The composite PMI also rose to 51.2 [1]. - Despite the improvement in data, S&P Global noted that the economic fundamentals remain weak, with a slowdown in business activity and the largest drop in employment since February. Additionally, output price inflation has decreased to its lowest level since January 2021 [1]. Central Bank Expectations - The market expects the Bank of England to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with a consensus that the central bank will then enter a prolonged pause to mitigate the risk of inflation resurgence [1]. - Conversely, the dollar is under pressure as the market has fully priced in a third consecutive rate cut by the Fed in December, with expectations for at least two more cuts by 2026 [1]. Technical Analysis - On the H4 chart, GBP/USD is on a strong upward trajectory, approaching a key resistance level at 1.3354. The price remains above the middle Bollinger Band, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - A successful breakout above 1.3354 could initiate a new upward movement targeting the resistance range of 1.3363-1.3380. If a pullback occurs, the important support level is at 1.3280, with a potential deeper correction if this level is breached [3]. - The H1 chart shows that GBP/USD maintains an upward trend, currently in a correction phase but still above the local support at 1.3179, which is the starting point of the previous upward movement. The overall structure remains bullish, with a potential retest of 1.3350 if the price stays above the middle Bollinger Band [6]. Conclusion - The strength of GBP/USD is attributed to the clear divergence in central bank policy expectations, favoring the pound in the short term. The currency pair is testing the critical resistance level of 1.3354, with a successful breakout likely to accelerate the upward trend, while failure to break could lead to a pullback towards 1.3280. Upcoming meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England will be crucial in determining whether this momentum can be sustained [7].