Group 1 - The market anticipates a 60% probability that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points before December, compared to a 50% probability before the release of U.S. data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates an 80% probability of the European Central Bank (ECB) lowering interest rates by March 2026, while the expectation for the U.S. data release stands at 65% [1] Group 1 - The expectation for the ECB's interest rate cut reflects a significant market sentiment towards easing monetary policy in Europe [1] - The U.S. market shows a slightly lower expectation for interest rate cuts, indicating a divergence in monetary policy outlooks between the two regions [1]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Canada have lowered their expectations for the European Central Bank's final interest rate cut [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Canadian employment data has influenced the swap market's expectations regarding the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada this month, decreasing from 27% to 18% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Traders are no longer fully absorbing the expectations of another interest rate cut by the European Central Bank this year [1] Group 1 - The market sentiment regarding the European Central Bank's potential interest rate cuts has shifted, indicating a more cautious approach among traders [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5% for the 11th consecutive time, reflecting a cautious stance amid escalating military actions in Gaza and rising inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decision - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged aligns with the expectations of all 12 analysts surveyed [1] - This marks the 11th consecutive meeting where the rate has been held steady [1] Inflation Context - The annual inflation rate has deviated further from the central bank's target range of 1%-3% [1] - April's inflation rate reached its highest level in eight months, increasing from 3.3% in March to 3.6% [1] - The rise in inflation has been attributed to a sales tax increase earlier in the year [1] Future Outlook - Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron indicated that if inflation slows and market risk premiums remain manageable, the central bank may consider lowering interest rates in the second half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates that the Bank of England will implement a cumulative interest rate cut of approximately 35 basis points by the end of 2025, a slight decrease from the previous expectation of 36 basis points prior to the release of UK inflation data [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Expectations** - Market forecasts a cumulative interest rate cut of about 35 basis points by the end of 2025 [1] - Prior to the inflation data release, the expectation was around 36 basis points [1] - **Inflation Data Impact** - The release of UK inflation data has influenced market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate stabilized above 1.3300, with the latest rate at 1.3308, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01% as the market digests the recent economic data [1] - The UK economy grew by 0.7% in Q1, significantly surpassing the expected 0.6% and the previous quarter's growth of 0.1%, indicating stronger economic performance [1] - The market's expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England have decreased, with projections for a cut in 2025 dropping from 70 basis points to 44 basis points following the recent economic data [1] Group 2 - Hawkish comments from Bank of England officials have influenced market expectations, with a key speech from committee member Swati Dhingra anticipated [2] - The GBP/USD exchange rate remains trapped in a narrow range around 1.3300, with buying pressure preventing a drop below the 50-day EMA at approximately 1.3110 [2] - UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves emphasized the significance of trade agreements with the US and India despite facing economic headwinds [1]

Core Viewpoint - Traders have reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, now anticipating only two more cuts this year [1] Group 1 - The market sentiment has shifted, indicating a more cautious outlook on monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of England [1] - The reduction in expected rate cuts suggests a potential stabilization in the UK economy, as traders adjust their forecasts based on recent economic indicators [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The global trade tension shows signs of easing, weakening the safe - haven demand for gold, but the risk of global economic recession and central bank interest - rate cut expectations support the gold price. The mid - line upward trend of gold remains good, while silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure [4]. - After the Fed's hawkish interest - rate cut on December 18, 2024, the gold price started a new round of rise. Although it experienced an adjustment in early April, the safe - haven demand from the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system and the global economic recession pushed the price up and broke through the upper track of the mid - level upward trend. The gold price still has upward momentum, but its volatility has increased [5]. 3) Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: London gold is running weakly in the range of $3250 - 3350 per ounce. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset, but reduce positions to avoid risks during the May Day holiday in China. Silver is relatively weak [4]. - **Mid - line Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut in December 2024, the gold price rose again. In early April, it adjusted due to Trump's tariff policy, and then rebounded. It is recommended that investors mainly go long at low prices with medium positions [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: Data of Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Gold T + D, and Silver T + D, including pre - closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, change rate, open interest, and change in open interest, are provided [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - Charts include Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][13]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - There is a divergence between the US and China on tariff negotiations. The US Treasury Secretary and Agriculture Secretary have different statements [15]. - The IMF - World Bank Spring Meeting failed to solve the problem of Trump's tariff offensive. The IMF is slightly optimistic about the economic impact of US high tariffs, but private - sector forecasts show a higher probability of economic recession [15]. - The US business activity in April slowed to a 16 - month low, and prices rose, increasing concerns about stagflation. Trump's trade policy has raised the average effective tariff rate, and anti - immigration measures have damaged exports [16]. - Global trade risks and policy uncertainty are among the top potential risks in the US financial system, according to a Fed survey [16]. - US consumer confidence declined for the fourth consecutive month in April, and inflation expectations are at a high level [16].