IMF警告里夫斯面临重大挑战，敦促其调整财政规则 金十数据7月25日讯，据英国《金融时报》，国际货币基金组织（IMF）警告称，英国财政大臣里夫斯 在推进政府政策议程的同时，若坚持其自行设定的财政规则，将面临"重大挑战"。IMF呼吁里夫斯"优 化"其预算制度。IMF在周五发布的英国年度经济报告中指出，尽管政府在经济和公共服务方面提出的 大胆改革"方向正确"，但里夫斯在财政操作上的回旋余地有限，加上特朗普贸易战所带来的冲击，使这 些改革面临风险。根据3月数据，在其主要财政规则下的可用空间估计为99亿英镑，但受疲弱经济增长 影响，她被迫对原本计划中的公共支出削减措施做出调整。部分经济学家预计，到秋季预算时，里夫斯 面临的财政缺口可能超过200亿英镑。 ...

英国首相斯塔默：我们的财政规则坚不可摧。 ...

在下议院长达半小时的首相问答环节中，里夫斯显得疲惫不堪，似乎在擦眼泪。她的发言人表示， 这只是她个人的问题。斯塔默的新闻秘书告诉记者："财政大臣不会离开，她得到了首相的全力支持。" 在政府设法通过福利改革法案之后，里夫斯面临着压力，但前提是该法案取消了那些从长远来看可 以节省开支的措施。里夫斯多次强调她对自我实施财政规则的承诺，限制英国的借款额度，以试图建立 投资者的信心。 （原标题：英福利法案通过，斯塔默力挺里夫斯） 路透社7月2日消息，斯塔默周三给予财政大臣里夫斯全力支持，此前，里夫斯在福利改革问题上出 现一系列180度大转弯，导致其预算计划出现漏洞。 但这一雄心与工党议员发生了冲突，他们反对大幅削减福利，并表示里夫斯向社会上一些最弱势的 群体施压，以节省数十亿英镑的行为很残忍。反对党和经济学家表示，大幅缩减福利改革的决定意味着 政府将不得不提高税收或削减其他开支，以在今年晚些时候的年度预算中平衡公共财政。一位不愿透露 姓名的工党议员表示，里夫斯与下议院议长霍伊尔发生争执后感到不安。反对党保守党领袖巴德诺赫在 每周例行的议会会议上，称里夫斯是斯塔默无能的人肉盾牌。 英国借贷成本上升，英镑下跌，市场分析师表 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in UK retail sales, marking the largest drop in 18 months due to reduced consumer spending on food and household goods [1] - In May, UK retail sales fell by 2.7%, exceeding the forecasted decline of 0.5%, and representing the largest monthly drop since December 2023 [1] - Year-on-year, overall retail sales in May decreased by 1.3%, with food sales down by 5% and household goods sales down by 2.5%, contributing to the overall decline [1] Group 2 - The UK economy shows signs of cooling after a 0.7% growth in the first quarter, as indicated by the sharp decline in retail sales [1] - In May, the UK government borrowed £17.7 billion, surpassing the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) forecast of £17.1 billion, and representing an increase of £0.7 billion compared to the same month last year [1] - Public sector spending in May rose by £6.4 billion year-on-year, which was offset by a £5.7 billion increase in tax revenue, partly due to an £1.8 billion rise in national insurance contributions [1] Group 3 - The first two months of the new fiscal year saw borrowing of £37.7 billion, which is lower than the OBR's prediction of £40.7 billion [2] - The UK Treasury is under pressure to adhere to fiscal rules aimed at balancing day-to-day spending and income by the 2029-30 fiscal year while improving public services and stimulating economic growth [2] - The Chancellor announced an annual increase of £29 billion in funding for the National Health Service (NHS), while other areas of day-to-day spending will face cuts [2]

英国首相斯塔默：英国政府仍然致力于遵守财政规则。 ...

Economic Indicators - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing economists' expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, contrary to predictions of a rise to 4.3% [1] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28 were 233,000, lower than the market expectation of 240,000 and a decrease from the previous week's 237,000 [1] - The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services for May was $71.5 billion, wider than the expected $70.8 billion and an increase from the previous value of $61.6 billion [1] Legislative Developments - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill with a vote of 218 to 214, which has faced criticism for reducing federal aid and increasing long-term debt while providing tax cuts for the wealthy and large corporations [2] - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June was reported at 50.8, slightly above the expected 50.6, indicating a rebound in business activity and orders, although the employment index showed the largest contraction in three months [2] International Trade and Monetary Policy - The European Commission President stated that the EU is prepared to reach a principle agreement with the U.S. on tariffs, but will take countermeasures to protect the European economy if negotiations fail [2] - The European Central Bank's governing council member indicated that market expectations for another rate cut this year are reasonable, as multiple factors suggest inflation risks are more likely to trend downward [2] Japanese Economic Developments - The Bank of Japan received key support for its interest rate hike process, with companies agreeing to a 5.25% wage increase, the largest in 34 years, and summer bonuses averaging 4.37%, reaching a record of 991,000 yen [3] - A hawkish BOJ committee member suggested that the rate hike cycle would only be "briefly paused" before resuming [3]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, emphasizes that adhering to fiscal rules can attract more investment into the country [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the importance of fiscal discipline in fostering a favorable investment climate [1] - Reeves suggests that maintaining strict fiscal rules can enhance investor confidence and lead to increased capital inflow [1] - The Chancellor's remarks indicate a strategic approach to economic management aimed at stimulating growth through investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, emphasizes the government's commitment to fiscal rules and economic stability [1] Group 1 - The government aims to establish clear fiscal rules to ensure long-term economic stability [1] - Starmer highlights the importance of maintaining a stable economic environment to foster growth and investment [1] - The focus on fiscal responsibility is intended to build public trust and confidence in the government's economic management [1]

Core Viewpoint - The emotional breakdown of UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves during a parliamentary session has led to significant market reactions, raising concerns about her position and the government's stability [2][3][5]. Market Reactions - UK borrowing costs surged, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising by 22 basis points to 4.681%, marking the largest single-day sell-off since October 10, 2022 [3]. - The British pound fell over 1% against the US dollar, dropping below the 1.36 mark, which is the largest single-day decline since mid-June [3]. - The mid-cap index in the UK dropped by 1.65%, underperforming compared to European markets [5]. Political Context - Reeves faced backlash for a series of policy reversals that have created a fiscal gap in the budget plan, leading to investor unease [5]. - The government had to abandon measures that could have led to long-term savings, which has raised concerns about potential tax increases or spending cuts in the upcoming annual budget [5][6]. - Opposition leaders criticized Reeves, questioning her capability and the support she has from Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has not explicitly backed her amidst the turmoil [6][7].

英国财政大臣职位存疑 英镑重挫 金十数据7月2日讯，周三，英国国债收益率大幅跳升，英镑重挫。此前一天，英国政府被迫在削减福利 的计划上作出巨大让步。英国财政大臣里夫斯在议会表现出不安情绪后，英国国债收益率加速下跌。英 国首相斯塔默拒绝证实里夫斯是否会继续担任财政大臣。Pepperstone的策略师迈克尔·布朗说，"鉴于斯 塔默之前相当肯定地表示，里夫斯将留任到下次选举，市场认为这是一个确凿的迹象，表明她不会在这 个职位上待太久。""看来，里夫斯很快就要离开了，而她的继任者——不管是谁——都将大大放松财政 规则。"尽管斯塔默的新闻秘书表示，里夫斯尚未提出辞职，但这一猜测仍扰乱了英国市场。 ...