昨日，市场避险情绪一度显著回落，黄金价格回吐了相当一部分涨幅后企稳，白银随黄金而动在高位盘 整。晚些时候金银市场逐渐升温，PCE数据整体符合市场预期，且更多的欧洲基金释放出重新考虑资产 配置的信号，推动金银再度开启刷新历史高点的模式。正如我们此前所强调的，尽管"TACO"交易再 现，但总体而言，我们倾向于认为当前的地缘政治问题以及美国总统权力的扩大，在趋势上形成根本变 化，本次争端进一步扩大了全球主要经济体间的信任裂痕，未来或加速黄金走势从通胀博弈和利率博弈 向去信任化与秩序重构逻辑的倾斜，短期内预计金银有望维持偏强走势。(银河期货) ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower the main refinancing rate to 2%, which is half of the peak from a year ago and below the Federal Reserve's equivalent rate [2] - Despite eight consecutive rate cuts by the ECB, the euro has appreciated over 10% against the dollar in the past four months, indicating a reversal in capital flows across the Atlantic [2] - The nominal effective exchange rate index of the euro has reached a new high, with the real exchange rate at its strongest level in over a decade [2] Group 2 - The ECB faces a challenge in managing the effects of rapid currency appreciation on inflation and domestic demand, especially if significant capital returns from the U.S. to Europe occur [2] - The anticipated further rate cuts by the ECB may have minimal impact on the euro, as the market expects a terminal rate around 1.75%, which is at the lower end of the ECB's neutral rate range [2] - Increased borrowing in Germany and across Europe is likely to maintain long-term fixed income returns, expanding the "safe" investment pool [2]