周四（10月9日）亚洲时段，美元并未延续前三个交易日涨势，而是呈现小幅跌势，午后盘美元走势短 线反弹，最新美元指数报98.90，涨幅0.05%，纽约联储代全球央行持有的美国国债规模已降至十多年来 最低水平，令市场对外国投资者是否仍青睐美债及其他美元资产的疑虑再度升温。 纽约联储代全球央行持有的美国国债规模已降至十多年来最低水平，令市场对外国投资者是否仍青睐美 债及其他美元资产的疑虑再度升温。 这似乎有点出人意料，因为近期公布的美国财政部国际资本流动报告(TIC)和国际货币基金组织(IMF) 的"Cofer"外汇储备报告显示，海外对国债和美元资产的需求仍相对稳健。这两项数据是衡量美国资本 流动和全球外汇储备的黄金标准。但它们的发布时间有很长的滞后性——最新TIC数据是7月份的，而 最新Cofer数据是第二季度的。 美元指数昨日震荡上行，冲击99.00关口并刷新9周高位，现汇价交投于98.90附近。今日美元走势关注 99.30附近的压力情况，下方支撑在98.30附近。 美元指数日线图显示，DXY自上月高点回落至99关口下方，目前短期均线呈向下排列，MACD在零轴 下方延伸，RSI接近45水平，显示短线偏空动能占优 ...

日本央行一边按兵不动，一边抛售ETF，这场暗藏锋芒的"鹰派突围"，正悄悄搅乱美联储的降息算盘。 2025年9月19日，日本央行在维持利率不变的同时，悄悄放出一个重磅信号——要开始减持手里的ETF。 这一招看似"按兵不动"，实则暗藏"鹰意"，直接影响到了大洋彼岸的美联储，让原本看似顺利的降息进程多了许多不确定。 2025年9月19日，日本央行宣布将基准利率维持在0.5%不变，这是市场普遍预期中的操作。 但紧接着的一则声明却让市场瞬间紧张了起来——日本央行计划每年减持约3300亿日元的ETF（交易型指数基金）和50亿日元的房地 产投资信托基金。 因为，就在日本央行宣布这一决策的前一天（2025年9月18日），美联储刚刚宣布下调联邦基金利率目标区间至4.00%-4.25%，幅度为 25个基点。 当日本央行释放鹰派信号、日元升值后，美元也会被动升值，这对美国可不是什么好消息。 美元升值会削弱美国出口竞争力，影响制造业和就业市场。偏偏当前的美国，正面临就业数据疲软、消费放缓等内部压力。 美联储原本想通过稳步降息来托住经济，现在却可能因为外部汇率压力而不得不更加谨慎。 此外，美联储内部的意见也并不一致。亚特兰大联储主席博 ...

不只是利率数字的变化，更是全球资本流动的重新布局 近期，美联储降息预期再度成为全球市场焦点。许多人困惑不已：为什么美国加息被称为"收割全世界"，现在降息又被说成"收割全世界"？这种简单化的阴 谋论往往让我们忽略了背后的经济逻辑。 事实上，货币政策变化对不同人群产生截然不同的影响。今天我们将建立一套完整的分析框架，帮助你看清美国降息背后的真实机制，做出有利于自己的决 策。 什么是货币政策？简而言之，任何会增加或减少货币数量的政策都属于货币政策范畴。这些政策由各国央行制定和执行，虽然新闻不会直接说"央行要增加 或减少货币"，但会通过专业术语传达这些信息。 利率调整远不止影响存贷款成本，其核心目标是调节市场上的货币数量。当美联储宣布降息，实际上意味着他们要以更低利率向外投放更多美元。美联储凭 什么能决定降息？因为它掌握着几乎无限的美元供应能力，可以通过大量放贷迫使商业银行跟进降息。 存款准备金率调整同样影响货币供应。比如准备金率下调0.5个百分点，银行就能将更多资金用于放贷，而且这些钱会通过银行系统的乘数效应放大，显著 增加市场流动性。 公开市场操作是另一个重要工具。当央行购买国债时，向市场注入流动性；出售国债时， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the British pound is more significantly affected by large capital flows compared to the Japanese yen or euro, exhibiting price volatility that is unexpectedly high [1][3] - Morgan Stanley's analysts found that the pound's liquidity is lower, making it less effective at absorbing large market capital flows, which can lead to greater price fluctuations [1][3] - The report highlights that capital flows play a crucial role in currency exchange rate movements, challenging the traditional view that these movements are primarily driven by cross-border trade [3] Group 2 - According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements, the euro and yen account for approximately 31% and 17% of currency trading, respectively, while the pound accounts for about 13% [1] - The analysis suggests that trading location and timing can significantly impact the price levels of the pound, particularly during late trading sessions in London [3] - The findings are based on trading costs derived from hypothetical client orders placed in the exchange market, collected during peak liquidity periods in the forex market [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - TechnipFMC has established itself as a leading offshore equipment company with a strong backlog and higher margins through its Subsea two point zero offering [1] - The company is on track to book $30 billion in orders over the last three years and expects another $10 billion next year, indicating a growing backlog that will convert to revenue and earnings [8][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Subsea business has seen an expansion in its customer base, moving from 10-12 customers to a broader range due to increased offshore investment and TechnipFMC's integrated offerings [9] - Subsea two point zero currently represents 70% of the order book, with expectations for this to grow as it provides predictability and efficiency in project delivery [24][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has expanded its geographical reach, moving from three to four operational pockets globally to a more extensive network, enhancing its market presence [9] - The shift in capital flows towards offshore projects has been noted, with clients showing increased confidence in investing offshore due to TechnipFMC's ability to deliver projects on time and within budget [14][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - TechnipFMC's strategy focuses on reducing cycle times and improving project delivery through its Subsea two point zero and integrated offerings, which enhance predictability and performance [22][46] - The company is competing for capital flows rather than just against other companies, emphasizing the importance of delivering better project economics and execution [20][47] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of the offshore resurgence and the company's ability to grow in orders, revenue, and earnings [6][7] - The management acknowledged the industry's past inefficiencies and emphasized the importance of improved execution and delivery standards in the current market [39][42] Other Important Information - The Surface Technologies business is primarily driven by the Middle East, with significant contributions from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and is expected to see growth in 2026 [56][61] - TechnipFMC has built new facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE to meet local content requirements and support international operations [58][59] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the order book evolving? - The order book has expanded with more customers and projects, reflecting a growing interest in offshore investments and TechnipFMC's integrated offerings [8][9] Question: What is the mix of orders between greenfield and brownfield projects? - The company has seen a surprising increase in greenfield projects, while brownfield investments continue to be significant due to their high returns [15] Question: How does TechnipFMC differentiate itself from competitors? - The company focuses on capital flows and project execution rather than just competing with other companies, emphasizing the quality of offshore reservoirs and the importance of reducing cycle times [20][47] Question: What is the expected growth for the Surface Technologies business? - The international Surface Technologies business is shaping up nicely, with a focus on project-based work in the Middle East [61][63]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's shift from a hardline stance against inflation to a more accommodative approach under pressure from political figures like Trump indicates a significant policy change [1][5][9] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to 86.9% following comments from Fed officials, signaling a potential capitulation to political pressure [5][9] - Trump's actions, including the dismissal of a Fed board member, have created substantial political pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates, which could save the U.S. government approximately $1 trillion in annual interest payments if rates drop to 1% [7][9] Group 2 - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, with the dollar index falling from 110.17 to 97.77, has led to a significant appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which strengthened from 7.42 to 7.12 yuan per dollar [11][11] - The decline in U.S. interest rates has made the dollar less attractive, prompting capital to flow towards markets with higher yields, such as China, where economic recovery is evident [13][15] - Foreign investment in Chinese assets has surged, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year, reversing a two-year trend of net outflows [20][22] Group 3 - China's economic fundamentals are strong, with a 6.1% increase in exports from January to July, particularly to regions like the EU and Latin America, which helps mitigate declines in exports to the U.S. [22][24] - The Chinese government has increased its fiscal spending significantly, with a new debt quota up by 2.5 trillion yuan, enhancing economic growth potential [24] - The comparative stability and professionalism of China's monetary policy, in contrast to the politicization seen in the U.S., has made Chinese assets more appealing to global investors [26] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts provide the Chinese central bank with more policy space to lower financing costs for businesses, particularly in manufacturing and technology sectors [28][29] - While a stronger yuan may pose challenges for traditional exporters, the overall demand for Chinese goods may increase due to a stabilized U.S. economy [31][33] - The potential rise in commodity prices due to a weaker dollar could lead to increased costs for China, but moderate inflation may stimulate consumption and investment [35] Group 5 - The changes in monetary policy and capital flows present a unique opportunity for the internationalization of the yuan, with more central banks considering increasing their yuan asset allocations [39] - The evolving dynamics between the U.S. and China may lead to a new phase in economic relations, impacting investment strategies and market behaviors [39]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between U.S. interest rate changes and China's monetary policy is complex, and the assumption that China should simply "loosen" its monetary policy when the U.S. lowers rates is overly simplistic [1][3][12]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Interest Rate Changes - When the U.S. Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it increases global dollar liquidity, but this does not automatically lead to capital flowing into China [3][5]. - Conversely, when the U.S. raises interest rates, it attracts capital back to the U.S., putting pressure on China and potentially leading to significant capital outflows [5][10]. - In 2016, the capital outflow from China reached approximately $485.3 billion due to U.S. interest rate hikes, highlighting the impact of U.S. monetary policy on China's financial stability [5][10]. Group 2: China's Monetary Policy Response - China's monetary policy is not simply reactive; it requires careful consideration of various factors such as the China-U.S. interest rate differential, expectations for the yuan's exchange rate, and capital control policies [9][10]. - In 2022, during a period of U.S. monetary easing, China adopted a strategy of increasing exchange rate flexibility and controlling capital inflows while encouraging moderate capital outflows, rather than blindly loosening monetary policy [7][10]. - The complexity of capital flows means that a simplistic view of U.S. interest rate changes leading to immediate policy shifts in China is misleading [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing a rare and unusual phenomenon where both stock markets and commodities are rising simultaneously, despite the decline in oil and gold prices [1][4][7]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Major global stock indices have seen significant increases, with the US stock market reaching historical highs after a downturn earlier in the year [1][4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized above 3400 points, marking a new high for the year [1]. - European indices such as France's CAC40, Germany's DAX, and the UK's FTSE 100 have also shown positive performance [1]. Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Commodities like copper, aluminum, and lead have experienced price increases, with copper prices surpassing $5 and aluminum reaching a three-month high [6][25]. - In contrast, oil and gold prices have declined, with Brent crude falling from $79 to $66 and gold dropping from 3452 to 3289 [8][9]. Group 3: Underlying Factors - The rise in global stock markets is closely linked to the depreciation of the US dollar, which has fallen from 101 to 97 since May [14][13]. - The US government's intention to weaken the dollar is aimed at reducing debt pressure and encouraging capital repatriation [16][15]. - The expectation of increased US debt and monetary easing by the Federal Reserve is driving market sentiment [22][21]. Group 4: Capital Flow Dynamics - The disparity in commodity price movements is influenced by US purchasing behavior, with the US prioritizing the accumulation of certain commodities while neglecting others like oil and gold [28][27]. - The capital flow towards commodities that the US is willing to stockpile indicates a strategic approach to manage future costs amid a weaker dollar [24][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming month of July is critical, with potential further interest rate cuts and significant legislative actions expected [35][34]. - The overall market sentiment is characterized by uncertainty, particularly regarding the credibility of the dollar and US debt [39][40]. - Despite the current stock market rally, there are concerns that it may be a prelude to a downturn, necessitating caution and preparation for potential risks [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is closely monitoring capital flows and euro-denominated assets [1] Group 1 - The ECB's focus on capital flows indicates a proactive approach to managing economic stability within the Eurozone [1] - Monitoring euro assets suggests an interest in maintaining the attractiveness and competitiveness of the euro in global markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of Bank Indonesia stated that capital flows have shifted from U.S. assets to safe-haven assets and emerging market assets [1] Group 1 - The shift in capital flows indicates a changing investment landscape, with investors seeking stability in uncertain economic conditions [1] - Emerging markets are becoming more attractive as investors diversify their portfolios away from traditional U.S. assets [1] - The trend reflects broader global economic dynamics, where geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties influence investment decisions [1]