转自：新华财经 新华财经约翰内斯堡1月8日电（白舸 杭泽波）据彭博社7日报道，受兰特走强及金属价格大幅上涨提振，南非股市市值升至2019年以来最高水平。数据显 示，富时／约翰内斯堡非洲全股指数成分股总市值6日突破5000亿美元，其市值规模已超过挪威、马来西亚和土耳其等市场。 2025年，约翰内斯堡股指表现强劲，全年上涨38%，创2005年以来最佳年度表现，其中贵金属及矿业股成为主要推动力量。同期，南非兰特兑美元升值 14%，使股指以美元计价的涨幅扩大至57%。 进入2026年，南非股市涨势仍在延续，指数年初以来已上涨逾2%。兰特随金价继续走强，本周二升至1美元兑16.31兰特，为三年多来最强水平。法国兴 业银行策略师指出，兰特下一目标区间或在16.10至15.90之间，这将继续支撑南非股票的美元回报。 分析人士认为，大宗商品价格，尤其是黄金的持续上涨，将为南非股市提供进一步支撑。 编辑：罗浩 ...

据曼谷邮报12月25日报道,分析师预计，在泰铢自12月初以来大幅升值推动 下，外国资金将继续流入泰国股市。Asia Plus Securities指出，泰铢迄今为止累 计上涨了3.26%，这一涨幅"与某些基本经济因素相比似乎并不相符"。在这段 时间里，美元指数仅下跌了1.20%；而外国投资者则从泰国债券市场净撤出了 超过150亿泰铢的资金，尽管股票市场的资金流入量正在逐渐恢复。泰铢的表 现也远远优于其他地区货币，成为了亚洲最强劲的货币。据这家经纪公司称， 相比之下，作为该地区表现第二好的货币，马来西亚林吉特至今仅上涨了 1.14%。 （原标题：外国资金的流入有助于维持泰铢的强势走势） ...

分析指出，泰铢近期走强削弱了泰国出口商品在国际市场上的价格优势。鉴于出口占泰国国内生产总值 （GDP）比重超过50%，货币升值叠加外部需求不振，正对经济增长构成下行压力。（新华财经） 根据官方公布的数据，泰国11月出口同比增长7.1%，增速低于市场预期；同期进口同比增长17.6%，增 幅超出预期。进口增长显著快于出口，成为贸易逆差扩大的主因。此前，泰国10月已录得34亿美元的贸 易逆差，为2023年1月以来最大单月赤字。 泰国11月贸易逆差达27.3亿美元，显著高于市场预期的13.6亿美元，连续第二个月录得高于预估的贸易 赤字。这一数据凸显该国在全球需求疲软与本币升值双重压力下面临的出口竞争力挑战。 ...

从去年的接近1万亿美元，到今年11月份突破1万亿美元，我国的制造业实力还在突飞猛进。 今年1月份时，我国曾宣布其货物和服务贸易顺差接近1万亿美元，当时这个数字已经打破纪录，从历史来看，也从未有过任何一个经济体的出口和进口差达 到如此规模。 到今天，截至11月底，我国再度打破去年记录，累计贸易顺差也已经达到1.08万亿美元。 其中虽然对美出口下滑，但对其他地区的大幅增长，也让我国出口不减反增，最终创下了这个罕见的记录。 这是新的记录，而这个记录正由我们自己书写。 从结构来看，这次贸易顺差突破万亿美元，对美出口虽然有所下滑，但同期其他地区则大幅增长。其中就包括"一带一路"、区域全面经济伙伴关系协定，同 时深化与东南亚、中东、非洲、拉美等新兴市场的合作，构建多元化贸易网络。 这些举措进一步抵消了对美下滑的影响。 具体来看，我国11月以美元计价出口同比增长5.9%，高于预估的3.8%，扭转了上月同比下跌态势，11月我国进口同比增幅扩大至1.9%。 11月，我国对美出口下降近29%，这是连续第八个月出现两位数下滑，11月我国从美国进口也下降约19%。 同时，我国对欧盟、拉丁美洲和非洲等地区的出口增长十分强劲。11月我国 ...

Core Insights - The demand for foreign exchange in Uzbekistan reached $48.4 billion from January to October 2025, marking a 24% year-on-year increase [1] - Foreign exchange supply (excluding central bank operations) was $41.2 billion, up 26% year-on-year, with supply growth slightly outpacing demand [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Demand and Supply - Corporate foreign exchange demand increased by 24% year-on-year, while supply grew by 38% [1] - Export revenue from enterprises amounted to $14.5 billion, reflecting an 18% increase, with $8.1 billion sold in the domestic market, up 23% [1] - Commercial banks sold $7.3 billion in foreign exchange generated from overseas loans in the domestic market, a 62% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Import Financing and Usage - The structure of import financing sources remained stable, with 64.8% of foreign exchange purchases coming from the domestic market and 23.7% from own foreign currency funds [1] - Of the foreign exchange acquired, 51% was used for importing equipment, raw materials, and production supplies, 27% for repaying foreign currency loans, 17% for consumer goods and pharmaceuticals, 2% for foreign capital remittances, and 3% for other purposes [1] Group 3: Resident Foreign Exchange Transactions - Residents sold $17.4 billion in foreign exchange to banks, a 30% year-on-year increase, while purchases totaled $9.6 billion, up 24% [1] - The foreign exchange supply from residents exceeded demand by $7.8 billion, a 40% increase year-on-year [1] - Remittances from expatriates remained a major source, totaling $15.8 billion, a 25% increase, while international outflows decreased by $14.7 million to $2.2 billion [1] Group 4: Currency Valuation - The Uzbek sum appreciated by 7% from January to October 2025, influenced by increased export revenues, overseas loans, remittances, and foreign capital inflows [1]

Core Viewpoint - ING Bank NV predicts that the Indian Rupee will have the highest potential for appreciation among high-yield Asian currencies next year, driven by a potential US-India trade agreement [1] Currency Outlook - The report led by economist Dipali Bagavath indicates that the Rupee is expected to strengthen to 87 Rupees per US dollar by the end of 2026, representing an approximate 2% increase from current levels [1] - The Rupee is currently trading below its estimated fair value, making it one of the most undervalued currencies in Asia [1] Current Performance - The Indian Rupee is the second worst-performing currency in Asia this year, having depreciated by 3.5% against the US dollar [1] - A 50% tariff imposed by the US on India has pressured the Rupee, prompting intervention from the Reserve Bank of India to counter speculative bets against the currency [1] Trade Agreement Impact - Recent comments from US President Donald Trump suggest that the US and India are close to finalizing a trade agreement, which could improve the outlook for the Rupee [1] - As of the latest data, the Rupee is trading at 88.70 per US dollar, hovering near historical lows after two consecutive days of decline [1] Investment Sentiment - Economists believe that a positive outcome from trade negotiations could lead to a significant rebound in the Indian Rupee [1] - India remains a strong contender among high-yield currencies due to robust fundamentals, manageable fiscal risks, and ongoing diversification of supply chains attracting investment [1] Market Trends - With a decline in Indian stock market valuations and high bond yields in the region, investor sentiment towards Indian assets is gradually improving [1] - Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, have shifted to increase their holdings in Indian stocks, anticipating a market rebound [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch International Bank predicts that the Indian Rupee has the highest appreciation potential among Asian high-yield currencies in the coming year, particularly if a trade agreement is reached between India and the United States [1] Group 1: Currency Outlook - The report forecasts that by the end of 2026, the Indian Rupee will appreciate to 87 Rupees per US Dollar, representing an increase of approximately 2% from current levels [1] - The current trading price of the Rupee is considered to be below its fair valuation based on the real effective exchange rate, indicating significant appreciation potential [1] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Economists highlight that if trade negotiations progress favorably, the Indian Rupee could experience a substantial turnaround [1] - India is recognized as a leading high-yield economy with solid fundamentals, manageable fiscal risks, and a diversified supply chain that continues to attract investment [1]

Core Insights - The Ghanaian currency, the Cedi, has continued its upward trend in the interbank market, particularly against major currencies like the US Dollar [1] - As of October 16, 2023, the exchange rate of the Ghanaian Cedi to the US Dollar is approximately 10.62 Cedis, a significant appreciation from earlier in the month when it surpassed 12 Cedis [1] Currency Performance - The Cedi has shown strong performance against the US Dollar, indicating a recovery in the currency's value [1] - The appreciation of the Cedi reflects a positive shift in the currency's market dynamics, which could influence investor sentiment and economic stability in Ghana [1]

Group 1 - The World Bank projects Ghana's economic growth rate to reach 4.3% by the end of 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 3.9% [1] - Economic growth in Ghana is expected to be driven primarily by the services sector, which is projected to grow by 9.9% [1] - The World Bank forecasts continued positive growth for Ghana, with expected growth rates of 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027 [1] Group 2 - Ghana's inflation rate is projected to reach 15.4% by the end of 2025, while official data shows a significant decrease to 9.4% in September 2025 from 21.5% the previous year [1] - The Ghanaian cedi has appreciated over 20% in the first eight months of 2025 after a 19% depreciation in 2024, attributed to tight fiscal and monetary policies and increased export revenues from cocoa and gold [2] - Ghana faces refinancing pressures with a $500 million European bond redemption due in 2025, which will rise to 1.2% of GDP by 2026 [2] Group 3 - Frequent power outages are impacting productivity in Ghana, leading to operational disruptions and increased costs for businesses [2] - Stable electricity supply and competitive energy prices are crucial for maintaining industrial productivity and attracting new investments [2]

Core Insights - The Brazilian real has appreciated by 16.18% against the US dollar year-to-date as of September 17, making it the fifth strongest currency globally [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar is attributed to investor skepticism regarding President Trump's economic policies [1] - Among 33 global currencies, only four have depreciated, with the Russian ruble, Hungarian forint, and Swedish krona leading in appreciation [1] Currency Performance - The Brazilian real's nominal appreciation of 16.18% ranks fifth globally [1] - The top three appreciating currencies are: - Russian ruble (+36.6%) - Hungarian forint (+19.96%) - Swedish krona (+18.29%) [1] - The currencies with the largest depreciation include: - Argentine peso (-30.05%) - Turkish lira (-14.45%) - Indian rupee (-2.98%) [1]