点击小程序查看报告原文 北京时间今天凌晨结束的3月FOMC会议上，美联储按兵不动符合预期，维持基准利率在4.25~4.5%[1]。会议前市场对美联储暂停降息已是共识，CME利 率期货隐含的3月暂停降息概率高达99%。 因此，此次会议的焦点更多在于，面对一方面有下行压力的经济，一方面是特朗普上任以来关税等政策的反复 性与随意性带来的供给通胀担忧，美联储在2025年如何应对，还能否再降息？ 如果只是经济的自然下行压力，美联储快速降息即可以解决问题，我们认为不足为虑，类似于2024年9月；但如果同时还面临供给侧通胀难题，那么美联 储则只能面对增长下行而无法行动，甚至还有加息压力，类似于2022年，这才是市场担心的。 图表：会议前，CME利率期货隐含3月暂停降息的概率达99% | | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | MEETING DATE ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or market discussed Core Insights - The recent downturn in the US stock market, particularly in tech stocks, has raised concerns about the sustainability of the previous bullish trend, especially with significant declines in major companies like Amazon (-10%), Google (-15%), and Tesla (-20%) [1][20] - The report emphasizes that the current economic slowdown is not unexpected and can be viewed as a natural consequence of previous high interest rates, which are expected to eventually stimulate demand as they decline [3][5] - Concerns regarding tariff risks and their potential impact on supply-side inflation are highlighted, indicating that these risks could hinder the positive effects of declining interest rates [6][8] Summary by Sections Economic Growth and Interest Rates - The report discusses the cyclical nature of the US economy, noting that recent data weakness is a result of high interest rates from the previous year, which are now expected to decline and potentially boost economic activity [3][4] - It is noted that the market's fears of recession may be overstated, as historical patterns suggest that such fears often lead to unexpected resilience in economic performance [2][5] Tariff Risks - The report outlines the increasing concerns over tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration, which could lead to supply-side inflation and complicate the economic recovery process [6][7] - The potential for tariffs to create inflationary pressures is acknowledged, with the report suggesting that these risks are currently difficult to assess definitively [8][9] AI and Technology Sector - The emergence of DeepSeek has disrupted the narrative surrounding US AI dominance, leading to a reevaluation of tech stock valuations, particularly in the context of the Hong Kong market outperforming the US market [10][11] - Despite short-term valuation adjustments, the report argues that the fundamental strength of leading tech companies remains robust, and the overall trend in the tech sector is not expected to reverse [11][12] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the market will continue to grapple with unresolved risks in the short term, but anticipates potential turning points in economic indicators and policy developments by March-April [12][13] - Recommendations include considering opportunities in US Treasury bonds and being prepared to re-enter the US stock market after significant declines, with a focus on maintaining a strong dollar [15][16]

点击小程序查看报告原文 2025年春节以来，美股在全球市场中表现垫底，与港股的强势形成鲜明对比，成长风格的纳斯达克指数更是以3%的跌幅落后，一改2024年"一枝独秀"的 强劲势头，AI科技龙头如亚马逊（-10%）、谷歌（-15%）和特斯拉（-20%）等也出现大幅回撤，仅英伟达（7%）和苹果（6%）小幅走高。 科技股不仅是美股的主要支撑，对美国经济和全球资金能否再平衡到其他市场也有"牵一发而动全身"的重要影响（《 本轮牛市的三大支柱 》）。正因如 此，近期科技龙头的下跌才引发广泛关注，担心持续两年的行情是否就此终结。恰逢近期部分经济数据走弱，关税风险挥之不去，都加大了市场的担忧。 图表1：2025年春节以来，全球大类资产表现中，成长风格的纳斯达克指数以3%的跌幅落后 资料来源：Bloomberg，FactSet，中金公司研究部 图表2：科技股不仅是美股的主要支撑，也对美国增长和全球资金再平衡有"牵一发而动全身"的重要影响 资料来源：Haver，FactSet，EPFR，中金公司研究部 图表3：风险溢价的走高致使谷歌和特斯拉下跌15%和20%，仅英伟达（7%）和苹果（6%）小幅走高 资料来源：Bloomberg， ...