Group 1: Real Estate Market Performance - In April, the second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities in China fell by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to a 0.2% decline in March, indicating a continued downward trend in national housing prices with an expanding decline [1] - Traditionally, March and April are considered strong months for the real estate market, but April's performance was disappointing, leading to the phrase "golden March, poor April" [1] - Despite the overall market weakness, first-tier cities have shown signs of price recovery over the past six months, with a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices in most months from October 2024 to March 2025, except for a slight decline in February 2025 [1] Group 2: Impact on Stock Market - The real estate market's performance is a significant factor influencing the stock market, with its impact being greater than that of US-China trade relations [1] - The decline in real estate sales over the past four years is equivalent to three times the trade volume with the US, and the existing real estate sales are equivalent to two times that volume [1] - The stock market often reacts in advance to economic data, as seen during the US-China trade war, where the stock market showed resilience despite negative news [2][4] Group 3: Economic Implications - The collapse of the real estate bubble has led to a 60%-70% reduction in related consumer spending, significantly impacting income and employment across society, which in turn has reduced profits for listed companies and led to stock market valuation compression [6] - The current state of the real estate market, combined with the ongoing trade war, suggests that while the stock market has rebounded to 3300 points, it remains under pressure due to the continued decline in the real estate sector [8][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is speculation that the current real estate downturn may present a buying opportunity for the stock market, as historically, the stock market tends to rise before confirming economic data [12] - The belief is that the A-share market will eventually recover, with current levels around 3300 points being viewed as low, and future opportunities may be rare [13][14]