Core Viewpoint - The recent aviation industry development conference in Liaoning Province has sparked discussions about an impending "super cycle," but there are concerns about the potential pitfalls for retail investors who may be misled by optimistic projections [1][8]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The aviation industry is experiencing high passenger load factors and effective market pricing, which are seen as positive indicators [1]. - The situation in the aviation sector is compared to the past downturn in the liquor industry, where expert predictions failed to foresee significant market shifts due to regulatory changes [3][4]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investors often fall into the trap of "locking in profits" on winning stocks while holding onto losing ones, driven by behavioral finance concepts such as "loss aversion" and "disposition effect" [3][8]. - The importance of understanding trading data and institutional behavior is emphasized, as many retail investors may not recognize the signs of institutional withdrawal from a sector [4][6]. Group 3: Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to not be swayed by superficial positive signals and to focus on data-driven analysis instead [8][10]. - Developing a personal decision-making framework and overcoming psychological biases are crucial for navigating the current market landscape [9][10].

Group 1 - The stock prices of Japan's five major trading companies have reached a 20-year high, driven by Warren Buffett's investment five years ago, creating excitement and hesitation among investors [1] - Since Buffett disclosed his investment in 2020, the average increase of the five trading companies has reached 320%, significantly outperforming the Tokyo Stock Exchange index [1] - Despite the positive market sentiment from Buffett's recent increase in Mitsubishi Corporation shares, professional institutions are expressing concerns about the current high valuation levels [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the phenomenon of market corrections during bull markets, highlighting that small adjustments do not typically trigger panic among investors [2] - Historical examples from the ChiNext index illustrate that significant declines can occur even in a bull market, leading to potential losses for investors who buy at the wrong time [2] Group 3 - The white liquor sector experienced a sharp decline following a government ban, with an average drop of over 6% in 20 trading days, while the Shanghai Composite Index saw a slight increase [3][5] - The article emphasizes that stock price performance is determined more by institutional investor behavior than by the presence of good or bad news [5][7] Group 4 - The case of Notai Bio, which saw a significant rebound after being placed under special treatment, illustrates the "bad news is good news" phenomenon, as institutional investors had already positioned themselves before the news broke [8][10] - The article suggests that understanding institutional behavior is crucial for predicting stock price movements, rather than relying solely on news events [10] Group 5 - The article concludes by advising investors to avoid blindly following prominent investors like Buffett and to focus on quantitative data rather than news [11] - Establishing a personal decision-making framework and finding suitable tools and methods are essential for navigating the information overload in the market [11]

Group 1: Real Estate Market Performance - In April, the second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities in China fell by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to a 0.2% decline in March, indicating a continued downward trend in national housing prices with an expanding decline [1] - Traditionally, March and April are considered strong months for the real estate market, but April's performance was disappointing, leading to the phrase "golden March, poor April" [1] - Despite the overall market weakness, first-tier cities have shown signs of price recovery over the past six months, with a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices in most months from October 2024 to March 2025, except for a slight decline in February 2025 [1] Group 2: Impact on Stock Market - The real estate market's performance is a significant factor influencing the stock market, with its impact being greater than that of US-China trade relations [1] - The decline in real estate sales over the past four years is equivalent to three times the trade volume with the US, and the existing real estate sales are equivalent to two times that volume [1] - The stock market often reacts in advance to economic data, as seen during the US-China trade war, where the stock market showed resilience despite negative news [2][4] Group 3: Economic Implications - The collapse of the real estate bubble has led to a 60%-70% reduction in related consumer spending, significantly impacting income and employment across society, which in turn has reduced profits for listed companies and led to stock market valuation compression [6] - The current state of the real estate market, combined with the ongoing trade war, suggests that while the stock market has rebounded to 3300 points, it remains under pressure due to the continued decline in the real estate sector [8][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is speculation that the current real estate downturn may present a buying opportunity for the stock market, as historically, the stock market tends to rise before confirming economic data [12] - The belief is that the A-share market will eventually recover, with current levels around 3300 points being viewed as low, and future opportunities may be rare [13][14]