最近辽宁省开了个航空产业发展大会，各路专家都在喊"超级周期"要来了。看着新闻里那些振奋人心的数据，什么客座率创新高、票价市场化见效，我这个 老股民却忍不住想笑——每次行业大会开完，总有一批散户要当接盘侠。 还记得2025年5月那波白酒崩盘吗？当时市场上一片哀嚎，都说这是"黑天鹅"。但看看当时的交易数据图： 记得2025年白酒板块那波大跌吗？当时也是各种专家出来站台，说什么消费升级、估值合理。结果呢？限酒令一来，股价直接腰斩。更讽刺的是，那些提前 跑路的机构早就通过交易数据暴露了意图，可惜大多数散户根本看不懂。 说到这儿，不得不提一个有趣的现象——"出赢保亏"。这玩意儿就像股市里的魔咒，越是行情好，散户越容易犯这个毛病。赚钱的股票拿不住，亏钱的反而 死扛。这不是傻，而是人性使然。 行为金融学管这叫"厌恶损失"和"处置效应"。简单说就是：赚了钱怕回吐，所以赶紧落袋为安；亏了钱不甘心，总想等回本。这种心理在航空股这种周期性 品种上尤其明显——涨一点就卖飞，跌多了又不敢补。 1. 别被表面利好冲昏头脑 记住：在股市里，数据和行为永远不会说谎。与其听专家分析，不如学会用数据说话。 图中橙色柱体是反映机构资金活跃程度的量 ...

Group 1 - The stock prices of Japan's five major trading companies have reached a 20-year high, driven by Warren Buffett's investment five years ago, creating excitement and hesitation among investors [1] - Since Buffett disclosed his investment in 2020, the average increase of the five trading companies has reached 320%, significantly outperforming the Tokyo Stock Exchange index [1] - Despite the positive market sentiment from Buffett's recent increase in Mitsubishi Corporation shares, professional institutions are expressing concerns about the current high valuation levels [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the phenomenon of market corrections during bull markets, highlighting that small adjustments do not typically trigger panic among investors [2] - Historical examples from the ChiNext index illustrate that significant declines can occur even in a bull market, leading to potential losses for investors who buy at the wrong time [2] Group 3 - The white liquor sector experienced a sharp decline following a government ban, with an average drop of over 6% in 20 trading days, while the Shanghai Composite Index saw a slight increase [3][5] - The article emphasizes that stock price performance is determined more by institutional investor behavior than by the presence of good or bad news [5][7] Group 4 - The case of Notai Bio, which saw a significant rebound after being placed under special treatment, illustrates the "bad news is good news" phenomenon, as institutional investors had already positioned themselves before the news broke [8][10] - The article suggests that understanding institutional behavior is crucial for predicting stock price movements, rather than relying solely on news events [10] Group 5 - The article concludes by advising investors to avoid blindly following prominent investors like Buffett and to focus on quantitative data rather than news [11] - Establishing a personal decision-making framework and finding suitable tools and methods are essential for navigating the information overload in the market [11]

Group 1: Real Estate Market Performance - In April, the second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities in China fell by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to a 0.2% decline in March, indicating a continued downward trend in national housing prices with an expanding decline [1] - Traditionally, March and April are considered strong months for the real estate market, but April's performance was disappointing, leading to the phrase "golden March, poor April" [1] - Despite the overall market weakness, first-tier cities have shown signs of price recovery over the past six months, with a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices in most months from October 2024 to March 2025, except for a slight decline in February 2025 [1] Group 2: Impact on Stock Market - The real estate market's performance is a significant factor influencing the stock market, with its impact being greater than that of US-China trade relations [1] - The decline in real estate sales over the past four years is equivalent to three times the trade volume with the US, and the existing real estate sales are equivalent to two times that volume [1] - The stock market often reacts in advance to economic data, as seen during the US-China trade war, where the stock market showed resilience despite negative news [2][4] Group 3: Economic Implications - The collapse of the real estate bubble has led to a 60%-70% reduction in related consumer spending, significantly impacting income and employment across society, which in turn has reduced profits for listed companies and led to stock market valuation compression [6] - The current state of the real estate market, combined with the ongoing trade war, suggests that while the stock market has rebounded to 3300 points, it remains under pressure due to the continued decline in the real estate sector [8][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is speculation that the current real estate downturn may present a buying opportunity for the stock market, as historically, the stock market tends to rise before confirming economic data [12] - The belief is that the A-share market will eventually recover, with current levels around 3300 points being viewed as low, and future opportunities may be rare [13][14]