投资逻辑 周末委内局势持续发酵，特朗普扣押了另外两艘油轮，其中一艘油轮并不在制裁名单中，这说明美国执法进一步 强化，委内瑞拉原油发货量上周下降了20%，不过我们在此前的分析中提过，由于委内瑞拉制裁油的属性，即便委 内出口全部中断，其对合规油市场的影响非常有限，采购委内原油的主体不会切换到合规油采购，更多是转向其 他制裁油或者非原油原料，由于海外圣诞放假以及年初的指数基金调仓影响流动性，短期油价可能无序波动。 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2026年2月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.49美元，收于每桶58.01美元，涨幅为2.64%；2026 年2月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.60美元，收于每桶62.07美元，涨幅为2.65%。SC原油主力合约收涨 2.01%，报441元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 自特朗普政府通过锁定油轮来加强限制委内瑞拉原油收入的措施以来，已有十余艘油轮在委内瑞拉海岸装载 石油。根据航运情报公司克普勒的数据，自12月11日以来，约有14艘船只完成装载，其中至少6艘属于受制裁船舶。 大多数装载作业在巴霍格兰德和何塞港进行。数据显示，尽管紧张局势不断升级，但石油装 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short-term view on oil prices is oscillating and bullish, and investors can still focus on the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options on crude oil [2] - The crack spreads of FU and LU are both weak due to the soft fundamentals of the high- and low-sulfur fuel oil markets and the short-term macro and geopolitical support in the crude oil market [2] - The unilateral trend of asphalt follows the direction of crude oil, but the fluctuation range is relatively limited, and the low inventory still provides some support for the price [3] - The LPG market is under pressure overall, with the price running at a low level due to the downward pressure on the overseas market and the increased pressure on the delivery discount of the futures [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 09 contract falling 1.25%. The trade war suppressed market sentiment, but there were still supporting factors for sanctioned oil [2] - Trump advanced the deadline for sanctions against Russia to August 8. Last week, Indian state-owned refineries suspended purchases of Russian oil, and the US issued a new round of sanctions against Iran [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The oscillating and bullish pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, but the futures of the fuel oil series have weakened. The LU2509 contract is temporarily supported at around 3,643 yuan/ton, and the FU and LU cracks continue to decline [2] - The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the demand for ship bunkering lacked support after the peak season. The ship bunkering volume in Fujairah has been weakening month-on-month since June [2] Asphalt - Asphalt performed strongly among oil product futures today. The domestic production volume in August decreased month-on-month compared to July, and the demand recovery was delayed in the South due to typhoon and rainfall [3] - The shipments of 54 sample refineries remained flat month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase since July was stable. The commercial inventory of asphalt has been slow to decline [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, increasing the pressure of oversupply on the overseas market. The chemical profit margin improved after the import cost decreased, and there is still room for an increase in the PDH operating rate [4] - The supply was relatively loose with the overall increase in the arrival volume in July, and the domestic market was under pressure. The strengthening of crude oil recently increased the pressure on the delivery discount of the futures [4]