Group 1 - The manufacturing sector's economic sentiment is influenced by ongoing reforms [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for September stands at 50.0%, indicating a critical point [4] - The comprehensive PMI output index for September is at 50.6%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [5]

Market Performance - As of September 30, the three major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.13% [1] - The A500 ETF (512050) increased by 0.60%, with a trading volume exceeding 4.7 billion yuan, ranking first among similar products [1] - The ETF's holdings, particularly Pioneering Technology, surged over 19%, while companies like China Metallurgical Group and AVIC Shenfei experienced a strong limit-up of 10% [1] Fund Flow - There has been a continuous net inflow into the A500 ETF for four consecutive trading days, accumulating 1.913 billion yuan over the past five days [1] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.4 percentage points to 49.8% in September, marking a six-month high and indicating ongoing improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The manufacturing production index reached 51.9%, up by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, also a six-month high; the new orders index increased to 49.7%, up by 0.2 percentage points; and the raw materials inventory index rose to 48.5%, up by 0.5 percentage points [1] Market Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, after a period of consolidation and digestion since September, a new upward momentum is expected to build, with the market likely to reach a new level in October [1] - Many sectors have seen a reduction in crowding, alleviating overall market pressure and setting the stage for a new upward movement [1]

Group 1 - The manufacturing sector's economic climate is undergoing significant reforms [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for September stands at 50.0%, indicating a critical threshold [4]

Group 1 - The manufacturing sector's prosperity level continued to improve in September, indicating a positive trend in production activities [1] - The non-manufacturing business volume remained generally stable, reflecting resilience in the service sector [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index was sustained above the critical point, suggesting an overall acceleration in business operations across enterprises [1] Group 2 - The comprehensive PMI output index for September was reported at 50.6%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The copper market is expected to move in a volatile manner. The fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in March was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a premium for the spot over the futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is neutral, with a decrease in copper inventory on April 29 and a reduction in SHFE copper inventory compared to last week. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving down, also neutral. The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish. With the Fed slowing down rate - cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, and possible improvement in tariff sentiment, the market will mainly move in a volatile way [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises have cut production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment continued to recover, considered neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price is 78090, with a basis of 490, indicating a premium for the spot over the futures, considered bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On April 29, copper inventory decreased by 300 to 202500 tons, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 54858 tons to 116753 tons compared to last week, considered neutral [2] - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving down, considered neutral [2] - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, considered bullish [2] - **Expectation**: With the Fed slowing down rate - cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, and possible improvement in tariff sentiment, the market will mainly move in a volatile way [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the bullish and bearish factors are not fully provided [3] Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 54858 tons to 116753 tons compared to last week [2] 保税区库存 - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13] 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [15] 供需平衡 - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, import is 3730000 tons, export is 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a supply - demand surplus of 110000 tons [19][21]