有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/06 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/29 145 564 98671 32165 -810.64 212.82 89.0 105.0 51.57 152375 74450 2025/05/30 175 665 105791 34128 -778.22 155.91 86.0 100.0 50.08 149875 74850 2025/06/03 215 1019 105791 31404 -652.82 409.92 85.0 100.0 52.31 143850 74375 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 变化 -5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The copper market is expected to move in a volatile manner. The fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in March was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a premium for the spot over the futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is neutral, with a decrease in copper inventory on April 29 and a reduction in SHFE copper inventory compared to last week. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving down, also neutral. The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish. With the Fed slowing down rate - cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, and possible improvement in tariff sentiment, the market will mainly move in a volatile way [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises have cut production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment continued to recover, considered neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price is 78090, with a basis of 490, indicating a premium for the spot over the futures, considered bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On April 29, copper inventory decreased by 300 to 202500 tons, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 54858 tons to 116753 tons compared to last week, considered neutral [2] - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving down, considered neutral [2] - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, considered bullish [2] - **Expectation**: With the Fed slowing down rate - cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, and possible improvement in tariff sentiment, the market will mainly move in a volatile way [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the bullish and bearish factors are not fully provided [3] Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 54858 tons to 116753 tons compared to last week [2] 保税区库存 - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13] 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [15] 供需平衡 - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, import is 3730000 tons, export is 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a supply - demand surplus of 110000 tons [19][21]