华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 03 日│中国内地 专题研究 证券研究报告 证券 券商股：蛰伏中孕育机会 去年以来券商板块滞涨，业绩增速与估值显著错配，或受资金面约束和市场 主题偏好影响。当前如何看待？四维度强调板块配置机会：1）强现实&稳 预期，2025 年多家券商净利润历史新高，26Q1 有望延续高增，中性假设 下我们将行业 2026E ROE 从 7.7%上调至 9.1%；2）国际业务利润贡献提 升，头部积极增资，未来是新增长极；3）通过并购重组及再融资增厚资本， 叠加扶持头部的政策预期，当前仍有用表空间；4）板块估值及仓位双低， 孕育较强的向上弹性。我们看好券商股估值修复机会，建议关注估值更优的 港股券商和头部券商，以及优质区域券商。 强现实&稳预期延续 过去十年我国资本市场广度、深度提升。放眼全球，A 股上市公司数已接近 美国，总市值排名全球第二、仅次于美国；港股总市值稳居全球第四（均截 至 2025 年末）。市场交易持续活跃，A 股万亿级交易额成为新常态，2026YTD 日均换手率 4.2%（截至 2 月 25 日，Wind 统计），处于历史较高水平。券 商业绩从脉冲式增长转为稳步抬升，2025 ...

【东吴非银】春节假期行业大事与投资观点更新 1、保险：监管披露25年行业各类数据，大型公司经营优势显著 1）保险行业资产突破41万亿，偿付能力充足率下降。 2025年末行业总资产41.3万亿元，较年初增长15.1%。 年末人身险公司综合与核心偿付能力充足率分别为169%、115%，较年初下降21pct、9pct，主要受利率上行导致的 afs债券公允价值下降影响，预计部分保险公司有再融 【东吴非银】春节假期行业大事与投资观点更新 1、保险：监管披露25年行业各类数据，大型公司经营优势显著 股票+基金合计占比15.3%，较年初大幅提升2.9pct。 3）投资观点：继续看好以平安、国寿等为代表的头部保险。 ①新单保费"开门红"持续确认，平安、国寿领先同业，头部集中趋势明确。 ②资产端股市表现稳健，若10年期国债收益率持续上行，则利好保险股固收投资和利差修复。 1）保险行业资产突破41万亿，偿付能力充足率下降。 2025年末行业总资产41.3万亿元，较年初增长15.1%。 年末人身险公司综合与核心偿付能力充足率分别为169%、115%，较年初下降21pct、9pct，主要受利率上行导致的 afs债券公允价值下降影响， ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the positive earnings forecasts from multiple securities firms, their stock prices have declined, raising concerns among investors about the disconnect between performance and market valuation [1][2][5]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - As of February 4, 2026, 29 securities firms have reported significant earnings growth for 2025, with notable performances including CITIC Securities achieving a net profit exceeding 30 billion yuan, setting a new industry record, and Guolian Minsheng's net profit soaring by 406% [1][3][4]. - The overall performance of the securities sector has been lackluster, with the CSI Securities Index showing a year-to-date decline of 1.83%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 3.36% [1][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - On February 2, 2026, the A-share market experienced a pullback, with securities stocks declining despite a subsequent rebound in the overall market on February 3, where the CSI Securities Index fell by 0.19% [2]. - However, on February 4, 2026, the securities sector saw a collective rise, with all 49 constituent stocks of the CSI Securities Index closing in the green, led by Hualin Securities with a 5.9% increase [2]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Analysts are questioning whether the valuation of the securities sector is set to recover, as many firms are expected to report strong earnings, yet the sector's stock prices remain depressed [3][8]. - The CSI Securities Index's annual growth of 2.54% in 2025 was significantly lower than the Shanghai Composite Index's 18.41% increase, indicating a persistent undervaluation of the sector [7][8]. Group 4: Growth Drivers - The growth in the securities sector is attributed to three main factors: improved market conditions leading to increased trading volumes, ongoing optimization of business structures among leading firms, and the release of policy benefits that enhance profitability channels [6][8]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with firms focusing on core business areas such as brokerage and proprietary trading, which are becoming the main engines of profit growth [6].

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of brokerage stocks has sparked a market rebound, driven by policy support, valuation recovery, and capital inflow [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 5, A-shares experienced a broad rally, with the securities sector seeing a net inflow of 3.006 billion yuan, leading the market [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3900-point level, supported by strong performances from insurance and brokerage stocks [3]. - The overall valuation of the brokerage sector remains low, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of only 1.2, indicating a historical low compared to the past five years [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), Wu Qing, emphasized the need for high-quality development in the securities industry, advocating for differentiated regulation and support for high-quality institutions [6]. - The CSRC plans to optimize risk control indicators and open up capital space for quality institutions, which is expected to enhance capital utilization efficiency [6][10]. - Regulatory changes are seen as a catalyst for the brokerage sector, with expectations of increased mergers and acquisitions to enhance industry concentration [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the brokerage sector will benefit from a combination of improving fundamentals and macro liquidity, with potential for a market breakout in December [8][9]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are anticipated to set the tone for future economic policies, potentially boosting market sentiment [9]. - The brokerage sector is expected to play a leading role in attracting capital and driving market momentum, with a focus on low valuations and policy certainty [9][10].

Group 1 - Chinese brokerage stocks rose in the afternoon, with notable increases: Hongye Futures up 6.1% to HKD 3.48, Guolian Minsheng up 3.9% to HKD 5.6, Huatai Securities up 3.66% to HKD 18.39, Dongfang Securities up 3.27% to HKD 6.95, and Everbright Securities up 2.67% to HKD 9.22 [1] - According to a report by GF Securities, market activity is expected to rebound in 2025, with significant growth in brokerage and margin trading, while self-operated contributions will show differentiated elasticity. The brokerage industry's performance is projected to grow significantly, but valuations may lag [1] - By 2026, with improved expectations of a slow bull market and favorable policies, the industry's ROE is expected to continue rising, and alpha is likely to become more prominent, catalyzing institutional capital allocation [1] - The report suggests focusing on brokerages benefiting from optimized market structures and those that will gain from the accelerated recovery of wealth management and investment banking capital elasticity [1] Group 2 - The important policy window period at the end of the year is approaching, with the Central Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference expected to take place in mid-December, which will outline economic work for 2026 [2] - CITIC Securities indicates that the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference will likely focus on "seeking progress while maintaining stability," addressing consumption expansion, technological innovation, fiscal and monetary coordination, and real estate risk mitigation [2] - The core tasks in the short term will be to stabilize growth and expectations, while mid-term efforts will aim to optimize industrial and investment structures, and long-term goals will focus on building new productive forces and development models [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Chinese brokerage sector is experiencing significant growth in profitability, with a notable increase in net profits for listed brokerages in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - As of November 4, 2025, the price-to-book (PB) ratio for Chinese brokerages stands at 1.53 times, which is at the 41.48 percentile of the past decade [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 42 listed brokerages reached 169 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 62%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 162 billion yuan, up 68% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 67.7 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 97% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31% [1] - The main drivers of revenue growth in the brokerage sector are the brokerage and investment businesses, with net income increasing by 75% and 44% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Citic Securities suggests that the current market focus on short-term trading pressures may overlook the broader recovery in the securities industry, which is now evident across various sectors including investment banking and asset management [1] - According to a report from招商证券, the ongoing slow bull market presents an opportunity for increased attention and allocation towards brokerages, despite their overall underperformance [1] Group 2 - The article lists several Chinese brokerage-related Hong Kong stocks, including Huatai Securities, GF Securities, China Galaxy, Guotai Junan, CICC, CITIC Securities, CITIC Jiantou Securities, Dongfang Securities, Everbright Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, Zhongzhou Securities, and Guolian Minsheng [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese brokerage stocks are experiencing a collective rebound, with significant increases in share prices for major firms, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential recovery in the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) rose by 5.4% to HKD 22.26 - CITIC Securities increased by 4.16% to HKD 13.77 - Huatai Securities saw a rise of 3.79% to HKD 20.82 - China Galaxy Securities gained 3.56% to HKD 11.63 [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecasts - Dongwu Securities announced an earnings upgrade, projecting a net profit of CNY 2.748 billion to CNY 3.023 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 65%, surpassing last year's total profit [1] - Dongguan Securities, a non-listed brokerage, expects total operating revenue for the first three quarters to be between CNY 2.344 billion and CNY 2.591 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.93% to 60.18% [1] - The anticipated net profit for Dongguan Securities is projected to be between CNY 862 million and CNY 953 million, indicating a year-on-year growth of 77.77% to 96.48% [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Founder Securities noted a clear trend of fundamental recovery in brokerages due to a high trading environment, with net profit growth in the sector expected to accelerate to 70% in the third quarter [1] - The overall net profit for the brokerage sector is projected to increase by 54% year-on-year for the entire year, highlighting a mismatch between current valuations and improving earnings [1] - There is significant room for valuation upgrades in the brokerage sector, as the current valuations do not align with the expected performance improvements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector, often seen as a "bull market flag bearer," is experiencing a divergence between strong performance and declining valuations, indicating a potential undervaluation and underweighting in the market [1][3]. Performance and Valuation - In Q1, the average daily trading volume of A-shares reached 15.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.58%, significantly supporting the revenue growth of listed brokerages [2]. - A total of 42 A-share listed brokerages achieved a combined operating income of 125.93 billion yuan in Q1, up 24.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 52.183 billion yuan, up 83.48% year-on-year [2]. - Despite the strong performance, the brokerage sector's market performance has been disappointing, with a cumulative decline of 7.58% as of May 16, 2023, and only 6 out of 42 brokerage stocks showing an increase [2]. Underestimation and Market Sentiment - Analysts indicate that the brokerage sector is currently undervalued, with a price-to-book ratio of approximately 1.21, placing it in the 16.96% percentile over the past decade [3]. - The proportion of active equity public funds holding brokerage stocks was about 0.37% in Q1, marking a historical low [3]. - Factors beyond fundamental performance, including macroeconomic conditions and non-fundamental elements, are also influencing the sector's valuation [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect a recovery in the brokerage sector's valuations, driven by improved liquidity and favorable policies, with significant growth opportunities anticipated [5]. - Projections for 2025 suggest a 13% year-on-year increase in net profit for the securities industry, with brokerage income expected to rise by 35% [5]. - The recovery of the primary market and continued strength in the secondary market are expected to stabilize the brokerage's investment banking and asset management businesses [6]. Investment Opportunities - Analysts recommend focusing on brokerage firms with good Q1 fundamentals and expectations for mergers and acquisitions, as these firms are likely to present long-term investment value [6]. - The ongoing supportive policies from the capital market are expected to benefit leading brokerages with strong balance sheet management and stable growth [6].