Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift in focus from photolithography to etching technology, as major companies like Intel, TSMC, and Samsung are delaying the adoption of High-NA EUV lithography machines [1][6][10] - High-NA EUV, initially seen as a revolutionary technology capable of producing chips at 1nm and below, is now viewed as an expensive option that may not be necessary for current manufacturing processes [3][6][10] - The cost of High-NA EUV machines, approximately €378 million each, is a significant factor in companies' decisions to postpone their use, as existing technologies can achieve similar results at a lower cost [6][10] Group 2 - The role of etching technology has become increasingly important in chip manufacturing, especially as the industry moves towards 3D structures like GAAFET, which require precise etching rather than just fine lithography [8][12] - Companies are now focusing on maximizing the use of space in three-dimensional chip designs, shifting the competitive landscape from lithography precision to etching capabilities [8][12] - The stock prices of etching equipment manufacturers like Lam Research and Tokyo Electron have surged, indicating a growing demand for etching technology as the industry evolves [8][9] Group 3 - ASML's dominance in the lithography market is under pressure as the demand for High-NA EUV machines declines, leading to concerns about the sustainability of its business model [9][10] - The company reported selling 418 lithography machines in 2024, with a significant portion of revenue coming from China, highlighting the ongoing demand for DUV lithography in mature processes [9][10] - Emerging technologies, such as EUV-FEL and atomic lithography, pose potential threats to ASML's market position, as they may offer superior capabilities and lower costs in the future [11][12] Group 4 - The semiconductor industry's evolution reflects a broader trend away from reliance on a single technology, with a more diversified approach emerging that includes etching, new materials, and innovative architectures [12][14] - The industry is moving towards a model where multiple technologies coexist, reducing the previous over-reliance on photolithography as the sole solution for chip manufacturing [12][14] - The future of the semiconductor industry is likely to be characterized by a variety of competing technologies, rather than a single dominant player, indicating a more competitive and innovative landscape [14]

Core Viewpoint - The importance of photolithography in semiconductor manufacturing is being questioned, with industry leaders suggesting alternative technologies may reduce reliance on High-NA EUV lithography [1][8]. Group 1: High-NA EUV Lithography - High-NA EUV lithography machines are facing low demand, with many major chip manufacturers hesitant to fully adopt the technology due to high costs and alternative methods being developed [1][3]. - Intel has begun production using ASML's High-NA EUV machines, aiming to leverage this technology for its next-generation manufacturing processes, including Intel 18A (1.8nm) and Intel 14A (1.4nm) [4][6]. - TSMC has stated that it will not adopt High-NA EUV for its A16 (1.6nm) and A14 (1.4nm) processes, indicating that standard EUV machines will suffice until at least 2026 [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Shifts - Samsung and SK Hynix are delaying the implementation of High-NA EUV in DRAM production due to high costs and upcoming architectural changes in DRAM technology [6][7]. - The focus is shifting towards etching technology, which is becoming increasingly critical in semiconductor manufacturing, especially as advanced processes evolve below 3nm [7][9]. - The industry is exploring new transistor designs that may lessen the dependency on advanced lithography techniques, emphasizing the importance of etching processes instead [7][9]. Group 3: ASML's Market Position - ASML's EUV lithography technology dominates the market, controlling 75% to 80% of the EUV lithography market, contributing significantly to its revenue [10][13]. - In 2024, ASML reported a total of 418 lithography machine sales, including 44 EUV machines, with significant revenue contributions from the Chinese market [10][13]. - ASML is also developing the next generation Hyper NA EUV lithography system, which promises improved performance and efficiency [11][12]. Group 4: Emerging Technologies - New lithography technologies, such as EUV-FEL and atomic lithography, are being researched as potential alternatives to ASML's current EUV systems, which could disrupt the market [14][15][16]. - These emerging technologies aim to provide higher resolution and lower costs, posing a potential threat to ASML's market dominance [15][16].