格隆汇12月18日｜爱建证券研报指出，拓荆科技是国内领先的前道薄膜沉积设备厂商，核心产品覆盖 PECVD、ALD、Flowable CVD、HDPCVD 等多类工艺，已在先进逻辑与存储产线实现规模化交付；同 时，公司前瞻布局混合键合及配套量检测设备，切入异构集成与三维集成核心环节，业务由单一沉积设 备向"沉积+ 键合"双引擎平台化演进。在晶圆厂扩产与国产替代推动下，中国市场预计仍将保持全球最 大半导体设备市场。HBM、Chiplet 与三维堆叠加速落地，芯片间互连密度和界面质量要求显著提升， 沉积与键合工艺在系统性能中的重要性持续上升，使相关设备需求具备独立于制程节点的成长逻辑。从 PEG角度看，公司2025E-2027E PEG为1.3/0.8/0.9，综合考虑其在薄膜沉积和混合键合工艺环节的技术壁 垒及中长期盈利弹性，认为公司具备较高的中长期配置性价比。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift in focus from photolithography to etching technology, as major companies like Intel, TSMC, and Samsung are delaying the adoption of High-NA EUV lithography machines [1][6][10] - High-NA EUV, initially seen as a revolutionary technology capable of producing chips at 1nm and below, is now viewed as an expensive option that may not be necessary for current manufacturing processes [3][6][10] - The cost of High-NA EUV machines, approximately €378 million each, is a significant factor in companies' decisions to postpone their use, as existing technologies can achieve similar results at a lower cost [6][10] Group 2 - The role of etching technology has become increasingly important in chip manufacturing, especially as the industry moves towards 3D structures like GAAFET, which require precise etching rather than just fine lithography [8][12] - Companies are now focusing on maximizing the use of space in three-dimensional chip designs, shifting the competitive landscape from lithography precision to etching capabilities [8][12] - The stock prices of etching equipment manufacturers like Lam Research and Tokyo Electron have surged, indicating a growing demand for etching technology as the industry evolves [8][9] Group 3 - ASML's dominance in the lithography market is under pressure as the demand for High-NA EUV machines declines, leading to concerns about the sustainability of its business model [9][10] - The company reported selling 418 lithography machines in 2024, with a significant portion of revenue coming from China, highlighting the ongoing demand for DUV lithography in mature processes [9][10] - Emerging technologies, such as EUV-FEL and atomic lithography, pose potential threats to ASML's market position, as they may offer superior capabilities and lower costs in the future [11][12] Group 4 - The semiconductor industry's evolution reflects a broader trend away from reliance on a single technology, with a more diversified approach emerging that includes etching, new materials, and innovative architectures [12][14] - The industry is moving towards a model where multiple technologies coexist, reducing the previous over-reliance on photolithography as the sole solution for chip manufacturing [12][14] - The future of the semiconductor industry is likely to be characterized by a variety of competing technologies, rather than a single dominant player, indicating a more competitive and innovative landscape [14]