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光刻技术“神坛”崩了,巨头纷纷退货,“平替”杀来了!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-06-27 10:22
Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift in focus from photolithography to etching technology, as major companies like Intel, TSMC, and Samsung are delaying the adoption of High-NA EUV lithography machines [1][6][10] - High-NA EUV, initially seen as a revolutionary technology capable of producing chips at 1nm and below, is now viewed as an expensive option that may not be necessary for current manufacturing processes [3][6][10] - The cost of High-NA EUV machines, approximately €378 million each, is a significant factor in companies' decisions to postpone their use, as existing technologies can achieve similar results at a lower cost [6][10] Group 2 - The role of etching technology has become increasingly important in chip manufacturing, especially as the industry moves towards 3D structures like GAAFET, which require precise etching rather than just fine lithography [8][12] - Companies are now focusing on maximizing the use of space in three-dimensional chip designs, shifting the competitive landscape from lithography precision to etching capabilities [8][12] - The stock prices of etching equipment manufacturers like Lam Research and Tokyo Electron have surged, indicating a growing demand for etching technology as the industry evolves [8][9] Group 3 - ASML's dominance in the lithography market is under pressure as the demand for High-NA EUV machines declines, leading to concerns about the sustainability of its business model [9][10] - The company reported selling 418 lithography machines in 2024, with a significant portion of revenue coming from China, highlighting the ongoing demand for DUV lithography in mature processes [9][10] - Emerging technologies, such as EUV-FEL and atomic lithography, pose potential threats to ASML's market position, as they may offer superior capabilities and lower costs in the future [11][12] Group 4 - The semiconductor industry's evolution reflects a broader trend away from reliance on a single technology, with a more diversified approach emerging that includes etching, new materials, and innovative architectures [12][14] - The industry is moving towards a model where multiple technologies coexist, reducing the previous over-reliance on photolithography as the sole solution for chip manufacturing [12][14] - The future of the semiconductor industry is likely to be characterized by a variety of competing technologies, rather than a single dominant player, indicating a more competitive and innovative landscape [14]