一家CVC正式亮相。 近日，上海智微私募基金管理有限公司（简称"智微资本"）首期智微攀峰基金在上海临 港新片区设立，基金规模1 5亿元，将聚焦半导体、泛半导体及战略新兴领域，以资本力 量助力产业和科技创新发展。 LP阵容浮出水面——中微公司、国君创新投、上海科创集团、孚腾资本等作为智微攀峰 基金出资方与智微资本进行了出资签约。 产业力量。 作者 I 余梦莹 报道 I 投资界PEdaily 中微公司牵头 成立CVC基金，15亿 仪式现场，中微公司、国君创新投、上海科创集团、孚腾资本等作为智微攀峰基金出资 方与智微资本进行了出资签约。 此外，智微资本与中保投资公司、上海科创集团、国泰海通、中信证券、中金公司现场 签 署 了 战 略 合 作 协 议 。 各 方 未 来 将 围 绕 项 目 产 业 赋 能 、 生 态 共 建 等 方 面 展 开 多 层 次 合 作，携手构建覆盖半导体全链条的协同投资生态。 投资界了解到，智微资本是中微半导体设备（上海）股份有限公司 （简称"中微公司 " ） 战 略 发 起 并 参 与 出 资 设 立 的 投 资 平 台 。 本 次 基 金 的 设 立 通 过 " 产 业 + 资 本 ...

今早刷新闻，一眼瞅见商务部那则反歧视调查的公告，手里咖啡差点没端稳 —— 这美国今年跟芯片杠上了吧？年初卡 AI 芯片出口，九月又把设计、制造、连材料环节都圈进调查里，这绳子勒得也太紧了点！说实话啊，我倒不是怕制裁本身， 就是看全球供应链那慌慌张张的样儿，跟多米诺骨牌似的，碰一下倒一片，真有点哭笑不得。 美国想靠关税和禁令，把产业链往自己那边拽，这点心思谁看不出来啊？可他们忘了芯片制造有多复杂 —— 不是说搬个工 厂、招几个人就能解决的。三星、台积电就算在美设厂，芯片造出来还得运到海外封装，来回折腾不说，搞不好还得被重 复征税。我之前刷到个数据，美国一年要进口几百亿美元的芯片，好多还是自己企业海外工厂造的，这波操作简直是给自 己挖坑，还得自己跳！ 最让我意外的是中国这边的反应。一开始我还以为，咱们也就被动应对下，后来才发现，早就在偷偷布局了！芯片进口量 是降了，但买设备的钱反而涨了 —— 这明摆着是要自己搞研发啊！北方华创的刻蚀机都能突破 14 纳米工艺了，寒武纪的 算力芯片也能跟英伟达掰掰手腕。商务部这次发起反歧视调查，更像是吹响了反击的号角，总算把主动权抢回来点，看着 还挺解气的。 不过话说回来，供应链恐 ...

凛冬之下，暗流涌动：经济下行期的财富密码，藏在这八大领域 凛冬已至，经济的寒意渗透进每个人的生活。年初，我那985硕士毕业的表弟小林，踌躇满志地投出87份简历，最终却只收获了区区三个月薪不足6000元的 offer。他愁眉不展，连连抱怨"钱难赚"。然而，抬头看看楼下，95后宝妈李娜却靠着"社区团购 手工定制"，悄无声息地月入过万。这巨大的反差不禁让人深 思：真的是"钱难赚"吗？或许，我们更应该关注的是"钱往哪儿流"。 一番观察下来，我发现，在经济下行的大背景下，以下八大领域反而逆势而上，蕴藏着意想不到的财富机会： 1. "二手经济"的掘金时代：化腐朽为神奇 "二手经济"正以惊人的速度崛起。不起眼的光瓶酒，年销售额竟高达1500亿元！我认识一位朋友，专门在小区里回收旧家具，经过一番巧妙的翻新，原本无 人问津的旧桌椅，转手就能以原价的130%卖出。更有人专注于母婴和数码产品，通过专业的消毒和清洁，溢价甚至能达到80%。 3. "平价消费"的王者归来：精打细算，才是硬道理 压力如山，人们渴望寻找短暂的喘息之机。2025年春节档电影票房预计高达70亿，现象级游戏《黑神话：悟空》三个月狂销450万份，销售额突破15亿。 ...

Group 1 - The core concept revolves around a leading integrated circuit manufacturing company that plays a crucial role in the domestic semiconductor industry, leading to the formation of a market-recognized industrial cluster referred to as the "SMIC concept" [1] - This concept is not an official industry classification but rather a market-derived summary based on the cooperative relationships and business synergies among companies [1] - The key logic is that the leading company, as one of the few domestic foundries with advanced process capabilities, will drive the business development of upstream and downstream companies through its capacity expansion, technological breakthroughs, and order growth [1] Group 2 - From an industry chain perspective, related companies are primarily distributed across three segments: upstream includes semiconductor equipment and material suppliers, midstream focuses on wafer manufacturing and packaging testing, and downstream involves design companies applying chips in various fields [1] - Upstream companies benefit from increased demand for high-precision equipment and key materials as production lines are built [1] - Midstream includes not only the foundry itself but also companies with collaborative process capabilities or those undertaking outsourced testing tasks [1]

记者丨 杨坪 编辑丨包芳鸣 （资料图） "并购六条"实施一年以来，A股并购重组市场焕发新活力。 自去年9月24日以来， A股市场首次披露的重大重组事项合计191单，仅一年数量即超此前近 两年（2023年—2024年9月24日）总和。 其中，披露金额的93单重组事项，交易总价值达 7292.87亿元 ，较往年也明显反弹。 市场活跃度明显提升的背后，除了产业整合加速、标志性案例频出之外， 还有一些积极信号 在持续释放。 一方面，"并购六条"在引导更多资源要素向新质生产力方向聚集方面效果凸显，标的资产大多 出自半导体、人工智能等领域。同时，虽然"并购六条"支持符合条件的上市公司开展跨行业并 购，但跨界并购在全体交易中的占比并不算高。 另一方面，并购重组审核端也明显加速，"并购六条"以来沪深交易所合计受理了73单重组交 易，另有30单交易在此期间注册生效。审核效率已优于2024年全年平均水平。同时，制度包容 性不断提升，为市场提供了更多元化的重组支付工具和更灵活的博弈空间。 "多元化支付工具的广泛应用，标志着A股并购市场正朝着更加市场化、灵活化方向发展。未 来，随着政策的进一步优化和市场机制的不断完善，预计并购支付方 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry - **Company**: 中微公司 (Zhongwei Company) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments 1. **Increased Orders and Revenue Growth**: The company has seen an increase in orders, primarily driven by the expansion of NAND storage capacity. Current guidance indicates a year-on-year order growth of over 40%, up from an earlier estimate of 35% [7][15][26]. 2. **R&D Investment and Product Development**: The company has achieved significant breakthroughs in deposition equipment, with R&D expenses growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 30% over the past two years. This investment is expected to lead to a doubling of sales in deposition equipment over the next few years [7][12][26]. 3. **Market Outlook**: The monthly import value of wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) in China increased by 12% year-on-year in August, supporting a positive outlook for domestic semiconductor capital expenditures [7][12]. 4. **Valuation Adjustment**: The target price for the company has been raised to 345.0 CNY, based on a 30x forward P/E ratio, which aligns with the domestic industry average but is 25% higher than the overseas peers [2][12][17]. 5. **Financial Projections**: The company is projected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 49% and a net profit CAGR of 65% from 2025 to 2027, significantly outperforming market consensus estimates [2][12][15][26]. 6. **Stock Performance**: The company's stock price has rebounded by 36% year-to-date, outperforming the A-share semiconductor index by 25% [1][15]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Production Capacity Expansion**: The company is constructing a new production base in Guangdong, which is expected to enhance its capabilities in the semiconductor and panel markets [7][12]. 2. **Risks to Rating and Target Price**: Key risks include potential supply chain disruptions due to tightening restrictions on sourcing critical components from U.S. suppliers, interruptions in capacity expansion, and weak downstream demand affecting customer capital expenditures [28][12]. 3. **Comparative Analysis**: The company is positioned as the second-largest semiconductor equipment manufacturer in China, benefiting from the decoupling of the semiconductor supply chain and increasing domestic production of WFE equipment [12][26]. Financial Data Overview - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY2024: 9,065 million CNY - FY2025: 14,495 million CNY - FY2026: 22,461 million CNY - FY2027: 29,935 million CNY [4][11][30]. - **Net Profit Projections**: - FY2024: 1,616 million CNY - FY2025: 2,369 million CNY - FY2026: 4,864 million CNY - FY2027: 7,197 million CNY [11][30]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's growth trajectory, market positioning, and financial outlook within the semiconductor equipment industry.

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by advancements in AI infrastructure, domestic AI chip releases, and storage capacity expansions, which are expected to boost demand for semiconductor equipment [1][2]. Group 1: Semiconductor Sector Growth - Semiconductor stocks are leading the market, with Changchuan Technology rising over 15% and Northern Huachuang increasing more than 5%, contributing to a 6.42% rise in the semiconductor equipment ETF E Fund (159558), which has gained over 27% in the past 10 days [1]. - Alibaba's Wu Yongming announced a proactive approach to advancing a 380 billion yuan AI infrastructure initiative, with plans for further investments [1]. - The release of domestic AI chips is expected to strengthen the logic of domestic chip substitution, increasing production demand for domestic chips [1]. Group 2: Key Developments in AI Chips and Storage - Huawei unveiled its roadmap for the Ascend chip series at the 2025 All-Connect Conference, planning to launch the Ascend 950PR chip in Q1 2026 and the Ascend 950DT in Q4 2026, with additional upgrades scheduled for 2027-2028 [1]. - Changchun's third-phase expansion in Wuhan, officially established on September 5, 2025, aims to increase monthly production capacity to 150,000 wafers by 2025 and capture a 15% share of the global NAND market by 2026, which will drive demand for semiconductor equipment [1]. - The development and capacity construction of domestic AI chip-specific memory HBM are expected to stimulate semiconductor equipment demand in the DRAM sector [1]. Group 3: Upstream Equipment Manufacturers - The improvement in domestic equipment manufacturing capabilities, the release of domestic AI chips, and the expansion of storage capacity are expected to benefit upstream equipment manufacturers [2]. - The concentrated progress in AI chips and storage expansion is likely to drive demand for etching machines, thin film deposition, and other key domestic equipment, activating incremental demand for equipment [2]. - The semiconductor equipment ETF E Fund (159558) has seen a net inflow of 180 million yuan over the past five days, closely tracking the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Index, which includes leading companies in critical sectors such as photolithography, etching, and thin film deposition [2].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is undergoing significant internal differentiation, and merely being labeled as "domestic" does not guarantee success. Companies must possess both offensive and defensive capabilities to thrive in this competitive landscape [1][6][57]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor equipment and materials sector is heavily influenced by policy and technological breakthroughs, leading to varying growth potentials among companies [6]. - Companies that survive must be "dual-capable monsters," excelling in both new technology development and existing product iteration to maintain stable cash flow [6][57]. - The demand in the semiconductor market is split into two distinct tracks: advanced processes driven by a "technology arms race" and mature processes driven by massive chip demand from sectors like electric vehicles and IoT [8][9]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment in semiconductor equipment and materials is fundamentally about investing in the underlying infrastructure of the digital world, which offers strong certainty and sustainability [13]. - The investment landscape is layered, with higher technical barriers and profit margins in upstream sectors (EDA/IP, equipment) compared to downstream (design, manufacturing) [14]. - The real investment opportunities lie in the growth of domestic supply chains, particularly in critical components like RF power supplies and specialty ceramics [16][34]. Group 3: Market Trends - The global equipment market is dominated by major players like AMAT, ASML, and LAM, with a concentration ratio (CR3) exceeding 50%, indicating significant challenges for domestic players [33]. - China's semiconductor market is growing at a rate higher than the global average, driven by internal demand and policy support, making it a unique investment opportunity [36]. - The demand for advanced logic chips (≤28nm) is expected to grow rapidly, while mature logic (>28nm) represents the largest incremental opportunity, particularly in automotive and industrial control applications [40][41]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical pressures are creating a survival space for domestic manufacturers, with sanctions leading to a "stair-step" replacement rhythm, opening new opportunities for local firms [10][45]. - The timeline of sanctions indicates a systematic and long-term approach to containment, emphasizing the necessity for domestic substitution as a survival strategy [45]. Group 5: Challenges and Risks - The complexity and high costs associated with semiconductor manufacturing create significant barriers to entry, with any misstep potentially leading to substantial losses [20]. - The rapid pace of technological iteration requires high R&D investments, with projected R&D expenditures in the equipment sector exceeding 10 billion in 2024, reflecting a 42.5% increase [47]. - The materials sector faces high certification barriers and a lower domestic production rate, making it more challenging to achieve self-sufficiency compared to equipment [50][53].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that investing in the semiconductor industry requires deep understanding and calm analysis rather than mere enthusiasm for "domestic" labels. It highlights the internal divisions within the industry and the need for companies to be both offensive and defensive to survive and thrive in a competitive landscape [2][5][53]. Group 1: Company Capability Dimension - Companies must be "dual-capable monsters," excelling in both new technology development to capture high-profit segments and in old product iteration to maintain stable cash flow through cost reduction and deep service [6]. - The survival of companies will hinge on their ability to continuously deliver profits, which serves as the ultimate test of their business narratives [6]. Group 2: Downstream Demand Dimension - Downstream demand is split into two distinct tracks: advanced process (≤28nm) driven by a "technology arms race" with exponential growth characteristics, and mature process (>28nm) driven by stable demand from sectors like electric vehicles and IoT, representing the current fertile ground for investment in China [6][36]. - Investment strategies must differentiate between paying for "dreams" (advanced processes) and "grain" (mature processes) [6]. Group 3: Domestic Substitution Dimension - Domestic substitution is driven by geopolitical pressures, leading to a non-linear, "stair-step" replacement rhythm where each external sanction creates new opportunities for domestic manufacturers [6][34]. - Key investment decisions should focus on identifying which segments require immediate substitution and which are more gradual, with a focus on certainty versus growth potential [6]. Group 4: Equipment and Materials Market Insights - The semiconductor equipment market is characterized by high barriers to entry and significant capital requirements, with the investment in equipment for advanced processes skyrocketing from approximately $3 billion for 28nm to $16 billion for 3nm [29]. - The market is highly concentrated, dominated by major players like AMAT and ASML, indicating substantial opportunities for domestic players to capture market share [28][29]. Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities - The rapid pace of technological iteration presents challenges, but also opportunities for latecomers to leapfrog established players by adopting new technologies [22]. - The increasing complexity and cost of manufacturing processes necessitate a focus on yield management, which will elevate the value of measurement and inspection equipment [24]. Group 6: Current State of Domestic Substitution - Current domestic substitution rates show that cleaning equipment and CMP have surpassed 20%, while areas like lithography and measurement remain below 5%, indicating significant potential for growth in these challenging segments [42]. - The R&D expenditure in the equipment sector is projected to exceed 10 billion in 2024, reflecting a 42.5% increase, underscoring the commitment to building technological barriers [42]. Group 7: Material Market Dynamics - The materials market in China is the largest globally, yet the production value does not match its market share, presenting a significant opportunity for growth [46]. - The complexity of materials, particularly in manufacturing, poses challenges for domestic substitution, as it requires extensive technical expertise and long-term quality management [49].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the semiconductor equipment and photolithography market is poised for significant growth, similar to the rise of new energy in 2020, with a focus on companies that can capitalize on this trend [1][3] - The global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are projected to grow by 7.4% year-on-year, reaching $125.5 billion by 2025, marking a historical high [3] - The photolithography market size has exceeded €24.4 billion, equivalent to nearly ¥200 billion, indicating substantial growth potential as China's market size is currently only ¥20 billion with a domestic production rate of just 2.5% [3] Group 2 - New Kai Lai, supported by Huawei and state-owned enterprises, is set to showcase advanced semiconductor equipment, including the "Alishan" atomic layer deposition technology that competes with ASML's latest EUV lithography machines [3] - Key companies identified for potential growth in the photolithography sector include: - Kaimete Gas, which aims to break the monopoly of foreign companies on 6N grade specialty gases essential for photolithography [4] - Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, the only listed company deeply tied to a photolithography equipment manufacturer, holding a 10.7787% stake in Shanghai Microelectronics [4] - A leading domestic photolithography giant, which holds over 80% market share in the domestic photolithography sector [4] Group 3 - Foreign investment has surged, with over 3 billion shares purchased, representing 20% of the total circulating shares, a rare occurrence in A-share history [5] - The stock price of the mentioned companies is around ¥8, with technical indicators suggesting that adjustments have been made across monthly, quarterly, and weekly charts [5]