芯片设备行业的爆发点在哪 20251231 摘要 存储周期扩展、先进制程自主可控提升以及先进封装等新技术突破，为 2026 年设备领域带来巨大投资机会，工艺复杂度提升使得单位产能对 设备需求量增加。 Q&A 一颗芯片是如何生产出来的？ 芯片的生产过程涉及多个复杂的步骤。首先，芯片的基础材料是一片硅片。在 这片硅片上，通过一系列操作制造出许多晶体管，这些晶体管可以进行 0 和 1 的计算。接下来，通过光刻、刻蚀等工艺，将这些晶体管连接起来，形成多层 电路，就像搭建摩天大楼一样。这些电路最终构成一个完整的集成电路，即我 们常见的芯片。 在这个过程中，需要使用各种设备。例如，光刻机用于在硅片 上的光刻胶层上进行激光照射，规划出电路图；刻蚀机则负责将这些规划好的 路径打通或导通；薄膜沉积设备和原子沉积设备用于填充金属，使其能够导电 并交换信号。最后，通过封装技术将脆弱的芯片保护起来，并使其能够与外界 电路（如 PCB 板）连接，从而实现实际应用。 半导体行业具有周期性，目前全球半导体产业处于哪个周期位置？ 半导体行业通常每五年左右经历一个周期。从历史来看，2019 年至 2021 年 期间，半导体行业经历了一个强劲的 ...

晶圆制造与代工板块：中芯国际全资收购中芯北方，直接强化了其在12英寸成熟制程晶圆代工领域的资 产完整性与控制力。此举预计将提升公司整体产能规划与运营效率，增强在成熟工艺市场的竞争力与盈 利能力。对于产业链而言，龙头企业的资本开支与整合动作，往往预示着对上游设备、材料需求的稳定 或增长预期，同时也为下游芯片设计公司提供了更可靠的产能保障，增强了国内半导体制造环节的自主 可控能力。 半导体设备与材料板块：晶圆制造产能的整合与潜在扩张，直接拉动了对光刻机、刻蚀机、薄膜沉积、 量测等前道制造设备的需求。同时，制造过程中所需的硅片、电子特气、光刻胶、湿电子化学品等关键 材料的消耗量也将随之增加。在国内持续推进供应链安全与自主替代的背景下，具备技术突破和产品验 证能力的国产设备与材料供应商，有望率先受益于下游制造厂的产能建设与国产化采购需求。 交易所数据显示，芯片产业链午后表现活跃，算力芯片、晶圆代工方向领涨。 中芯国际于2025年12月29日晚间发布公告，拟向国家集成电路基金等五方股东发行股份，收购其持有的 中芯北方集成电路制造（北京）有限公司49%的股权，交易总价约406.01亿元。根据公告披露的《资产 评估报告》， ...

小毋今天想给大家好好聊一聊，前不久美国刚刚宣布了对于中国芯片加征关税的消息，不少人都在问， 美国这是又准备卡我们的脖子了？ 毕竟这些年光刻机的坎儿还没完全过去，现在出口通道还要被征税堵上，仔细扒了美方声明和国内最新 进展才明白，这波操作不光没按住中国芯片，反而把逆袭的油门踩得更狠了。 2027关税大限，美国留18个月藏着啥心思？ 美国政府在23日的时候就正式宣布了，现在先对中国进口的半导体加征0%的关税，等到了2027年的6 月，才开始打算计划要对关税机型上调，具体的要上调多少幅度，还没有确定下来。 这个时间点选得特别耐人寻味，不是马上动手，而是留了整整18个月的空窗期。 中方对于这件事情的回应也非常的快，在24日的时候外交部发言人林剑，就在记者会上已经很明确的说 了。 可见其实美国还是怕本土企业失去中国市场，又想遏制我们的芯片发展，只能用这种拖字诀。 小毋还专门去查了查资料，美国的这次关税策略主要还是在盯着我国的成熟制程芯片，虽说这些芯片并 不是什么高端芯片，但在汽车、家电、通信设备里面可全靠它们支撑着。 美国《纽约时报》自己都承认，中国在成熟制程上砸的钱太多，美国工厂根本没法竞争。 加税就是想逼我们退出市 ...

22 December 2025 | 8:35AM HKT Equity Research AMEC (688012.SS): CMP tool acquisition plan announced and mix upgrade towards advanced nodes; Buy AMEC has announced its plan to acquire a local 12'' CMP (Chemical Mechanical Polishing) supplier Hangzhou Sizonetech (private) through a private placement of share issuance on Dec 18 (Link). The proposed acquisition would enable AMEC to expand its offerings from etching/ deposition/ Ion Implantation tools to include CMP equipment. While we do not take a view on the ...

Core Insights - The ongoing competition between China and Japan has escalated into a generational paradigm shift in industry, which poses significant implications for China's transformer manufacturing enterprises [1] - Japan's recent supply chain disruptions, triggered by China's export control measures, have led to partial production halts for 23 major companies, including Toyota and Sony [2] - The historical trade relationship between China and Japan has evolved dramatically, with China now controlling 80% of global production capacity for critical materials that were once monopolized by Japan [4] Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - Japan's manufacturing sector is facing a critical supply chain crisis, with a dependency on China for key materials exceeding 90%, particularly in the semiconductor industry [10] - The shift from a "world factory" to an "innovation hub" in China signifies a strategic transformation that poses long-term challenges for Japan's manufacturing capabilities [9][12] - China's advanced real-time data collaboration capabilities in supply chain management have outpaced Japan's traditional methods, highlighting a significant efficiency gap [7][8] Group 2: Technological Advancements - China's continuous investment in research and development has led to a reversal of roles, where Japanese companies are now seeking access to Chinese semiconductor patents [5] - The integration of 410,000 factories into a real-time collaborative network through industrial internet platforms represents a substantial leap in China's manufacturing capabilities [8] - The introduction of an "industrial chain resilience index" by China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to enhance the evaluation of local governments and solidify technological advancements [12] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Implications - The historical trajectory of China-Japan trade, from a $30 billion starting point in 1985 to a current reliance on critical materials, underscores the shifting power dynamics in the region [4] - The current crisis is not merely a temporary trade dispute but a strategic declaration of China's intent to reshape the global industrial landscape [9][12] - The lessons from this ongoing competition emphasize the importance of dynamic evolutionary capabilities over static technological barriers, as articulated in historical contexts [12]

有时甚至会出现"泛半导体全线抬头"的局面，而这些公司的产品表面看起来并不相似。 市场仿佛在借着某一次IPO，对一整条"技术路线"重新定价。我们这项研究做的事情，就是把这个直觉 量化了：没有从"你们是不是同行"入手，而是把目光投向商业逻辑更底层的那一层——专利和技术。 当你的同行——特别是那些在技术底层与你高度相似的同行——成功IPO时，市场给你带来的不仅仅是 压力，可能是一份意想不到的"大礼包"。这就好比你邻居家装修得金碧辉煌，不仅没遮挡你的采光，反 而让你家房子的估值也跟着涨了。 科创板专利大比拼 曾经被问到过："教授，我的死对头公司马上要上市了，融资几个亿，我们公司要被'卷'死了吗？"在传 统的商业逻辑里，这确实是个坏消息。在那个"零和博弈"的旧世界，竞争对手的IPO往往意味着他们有 了更多的弹药来打价格战、抢夺市场份额，你的生存空间会被挤压，股价自然承压，这就是我们在教科 书里讲了几十年的"竞争效应"或"替代效应"。理由很简单：同一个行业里多了一只新股，资金要重新分 配，竞争要重新定价，投资者往往会给老股一点折价。不少实证研究也验证了这一点——只要你和新股 属于同一行业、产品高度相似，股价在对方上市前后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share technology sector is experiencing structural differentiation, with active segments like power grids and robotics, while previously leading areas like computing power are undergoing corrections. This has sparked debates in the private equity circle regarding investment strategies and optimization of portfolios [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Many private equity firms are adopting a long-term bullish view on the "core technology stocks" while focusing on short-term high-low switches as a key strategy [1] - Investment opportunities in the AI sector should not be judged solely on the "new vs. old" dimension, as both "old AI" (like optical modules and PCBs) and "new AI" are expected to benefit from global AI development [3] - The current market trend shows funds shifting from previously high-performing areas like computing chips to sectors like electricity and semiconductors, indicating a rotation strategy [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The high concentration in the AI sector has become a consensus, but many private equity firms view this as a signal to refine their investment choices rather than exit the market [5] - A simplified verification system for investing in technology stocks emphasizes the importance of real technological application, profitability, and R&D efficiency [5] - The strategy of "watching performance" and "buying in batches" is recommended to manage risks and costs effectively [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Private equity firms maintain a strong confidence in the long-term trends of core technology industries like AI and semiconductors, with a focus on application deployment and potential industry breakthroughs [7] - The AI computing infrastructure is expected to remain in high demand until 2026, driven by capital expenditures from overseas cloud vendors and accelerated domestic investments [7] - Emerging technologies and applications, such as advancements in open-source models and increased token usage, are anticipated to create new, unpriced demands in the industry [8] Group 4: Sector Focus - There is a growing interest in niche areas like storage chips, AI glasses, and AI edge hardware, which are seen as potential growth sectors [8]

Group 1 - The recent news of China imposing regulations on rare earth elements has significantly impacted ASML, a Dutch semiconductor company, halting its production lines due to the lack of critical components containing rare earths [3][6] - The Dutch government's previous actions against Chinese company Anshi Semiconductor, including asset freezes, have led to a disruption in the supply chain, affecting not only Chinese firms but also European industries, particularly the automotive sector [5][6] - The situation highlights a new form of warfare characterized by supply chain control, where the ability to manage critical nodes in the supply chain has become a matter of national sovereignty [10][12] Group 2 - China's response to the Dutch actions demonstrates a strategic shift from passive acceptance to active shaping of the global supply chain dynamics, utilizing its control over key resources [12][19] - The potential consequences of a complete decoupling from China could lead to a 30% to 40% increase in global technology industry costs, emphasizing the high stakes involved in this new form of conflict [14] - The ongoing situation is reshaping the global technology landscape, prompting the EU to introduce measures like the €43 billion European Chips Act to reduce dependency on Asian supply chains [21][23] Group 3 - China's approach combines precise strikes on critical resources with a willingness to grant exemptions for certain exports, showcasing a balance between assertiveness and responsibility [17][19] - The current dynamics indicate that countries must adapt to a new reality where resilience and the ability to withstand economic pressures will determine competitive advantages [25][27] - The overarching message is that cooperation and mutual respect are essential for maintaining stability in global supply chains, moving away from zero-sum thinking towards collaborative solutions [27][29]

Core Viewpoint - ASML's new CEO, Christopher de Vries, expresses significant concerns about the company's future, acknowledging that U.S. sanctions have inadvertently strengthened China's position in the semiconductor industry, particularly regarding ASML's reliance on the Chinese market and rare earth materials [3][4][20]. Group 1: Market Dependency - ASML's sales to the Chinese market accounted for 42% of total sales in Q3 2025, a significant increase from 27% in Q2 2025, highlighting the company's growing dependency on this market despite U.S. sanctions [5][8]. - The U.S. sanctions have not reduced ASML's reliance on China; instead, the company has become increasingly dependent on the Chinese market, which is now its largest revenue source [8][21]. Group 2: Competitive Threats - Chinese companies are developing their own lithography machines, posing a direct threat to ASML's market position, as they may eventually replace ASML's products [4][11]. - The advancements in semiconductor manufacturing technology by Chinese firms, such as the successful integration of advanced etching machines into TSMC's 5nm production line, indicate that China is making significant strides in critical semiconductor technologies [13][15]. Group 3: Supply Chain Risks - The CEO's concerns also stem from China's rare earth export controls, which could severely impact ASML's ability to source essential materials for its products, as China dominates over 90% of the rare earth processing market [16][19]. - ASML's High-NA EUV lithography machine, priced at $380 million, relies heavily on rare earth materials for its core components, making the company vulnerable to supply chain disruptions [17][19]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The U.S. sanctions are viewed as a misguided strategy that not only fails to isolate China but also strengthens its resolve to innovate and develop independent capabilities in semiconductor manufacturing [20][24]. - The previous CEO, Peter Wennink, had warned that completely isolating China in the chip industry was unrealistic, a sentiment that the current CEO now recognizes as he faces the consequences of these sanctions [20][23].

Core Insights - The memory prices are expected to surge in 2025, with DDR4 prices more than doubling, indicating a significant investment opportunity in the memory sector [1] - The demand for memory and storage is skyrocketing due to applications in consumer electronics and AI models, leading to a price increase across the industry [1] - This price surge is creating a favorable environment for domestic memory chip manufacturers in China, providing them with unprecedented market opportunities [1] Part 1: What are Storage Chips? - Storage chips are a major segment of the semiconductor industry, acting as the "memory center" for electronic devices, responsible for storing data and instructions [1] - They offer advantages such as small size and fast storage, enabling cost-effective computing solutions [1] Part 2: Storage Market Enters a "Volume and Price Rise" Cycle - According to CFM's report, enterprise SSD prices are expected to rise over 10%, while DDR5 RDIMM prices may increase by 10% to 15% [5] - The current price increase is driven by a surge in AI computing demand, supply chain adjustments, and production cuts by manufacturers [5][7] - The storage industry is entering a new upward cycle, with server demand recovery and AI server deployment being the core drivers of this price increase [7] Part 3: Domestic Replacement Faces a "Golden Window" - Global supply shortages in storage chips are creating significant market entry opportunities for domestic manufacturers [8] - Domestic brands like Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies are gaining traction as local clients accelerate product validation and procurement [8] - The acceptance of domestic storage solutions is increasing, with expectations that 2025-2026 will be a critical period for enhancing domestic market share [8] Part 4: Investment Logic: From Individual Manufacturers to Full Industry Chain Layout - Investment perspectives are shifting from focusing on individual manufacturers to a broader view of the entire industry chain [12] - Midstream companies, such as memory controller chip and module manufacturers, are particularly sensitive to price fluctuations, which can significantly enhance their profit margins [12] - The most certain opportunities may arise from upstream semiconductor equipment and materials, as domestic manufacturers will need to invest heavily in equipment to expand production [13] Part 5: Semiconductor Equipment and Materials - The construction of a wafer fab involves over 70% of investment in equipment, with domestic equipment rates currently low [13] - As domestic storage manufacturers expand, there will be a direct increase in demand for domestic equipment [13] - The semiconductor materials sector also faces significant opportunities for growth, particularly in high-end materials, as domestic production capabilities improve [14]