Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent US-China tariff changes on China's exports and economic growth, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal policies to mitigate these effects and support local governments [6][8][12]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Economic Growth - The current round of US tariffs on China is broader, faster, and higher than during the 2018 trade war, with an average tariff rate of approximately 41.2% [6][7]. - It is estimated that by 2025, China's exports to the US may decline by about 19.2%, resulting in a potential reduction of 720 billion in export scale, with overall export growth being dragged down by 1.1-2.0 percentage points [8][10]. - The high dependency of certain industries on US exports may lead to significant impacts on production investment and profits, further affecting consumer demand and employment [8][10]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The total fiscal space for 2025 is projected to reach 41.6 trillion, a significant increase of 2.5 trillion from the previous year, marking the highest level in history [14][16]. - The target deficit rate for 2025 is set to exceed 4.0%, indicating a proactive fiscal stance [18][20]. - The budget revenue targets are conservative, with a growth target of only 0.1%, reflecting ongoing economic pressures [21][22]. Group 3: Budgetary and Debt Management - The budgetary expenditures are expected to grow significantly, with a combined growth rate of 9.2% for general public budgets and government fund budgets [26][28]. - Government bonds are identified as the primary source of fiscal revenue, with net financing expected to expand by nearly one-third compared to the previous year [26][28]. - The budget outside the fiscal framework is anticipated to open further, potentially reaching 7.8 trillion, which would account for 5.5% of nominal GDP [34][36]. Group 4: Local Government Financial Pressure - Local governments are facing significant financial pressures, with increasing reliance on central government transfers, which are expected to reach 11.6 trillion in 2025 [52][56]. - The overall debt burden for local governments is rising, with the debt ratio projected to reach 165.7% in 2024 [52][56]. - The article highlights the need for local governments to optimize spending and focus on essential services while managing debt repayment [57][60]. Group 5: Central Government Support - The central government is expected to increase its fiscal support, with a focus on enhancing local government capabilities and addressing debt issues [63][65]. - The issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds is set to increase, aimed at supporting investment and consumption [63][65]. - The central government's leverage capacity remains substantial compared to other major economies, allowing for further fiscal maneuvering [65][67].

以下文章来源于粤开志恒宏观 ，作者罗志恒 粤开志恒宏观 . 在这里，一起解读中国与世界。立足中国，全球视野；宏大叙事，微观关怀。 作者：罗志恒 晁云霞 自2008年以来，本轮积极财政政策实行了长达17年之久，积极财政政策的内涵和特点也逐渐发生了 变化，及时总结积极财政政策的效果、分析当前财政政策存在的不足，并指出未来财政政策可能的转 型方向具有重要意义。我国积极的财政政策有力地促进了稳增长、惠民生和防风险，发挥了财政作为 国家治理的基础和重要支柱的作用。但积极财政政策仍存在一些不足，亟待转型优化以释放更大的政 策效力。 01 积极财政政策的实施效果 （一）有力地应对了外生冲击、促进了经济稳定 本轮积极财政政策实施以来，成功应对了2008年全球金融危机、2020年新冠疫情等外生冲击，确保 我国经济总体平稳运行。 2008—2010年，以扩大政府投资、实施结构性减税为主的积极财政政策 在供需两端发力，使我国经济保持在9.9%的平均增速，而同期的世界经济平均增速仅为1.7%。 2020年以来，我国在全球经济变局、国内经济新旧动能转换、疫情冲击等多重考验下，以大规模减 税降费和支出结构优化为主的积极财政政策持续发力， ...