Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is shifting its fiscal policy focus towards enhancing people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, marking a strategic transition from infrastructure investment to human resource investment and social security [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Expenditure - The scale and proportion of fiscal investment in the livelihood sector have both increased, with national public budget expenditure reaching 16.1 trillion yuan from January to July, a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [2]. - Expenditure on social security and employment, education, and health care has seen significant growth rates of 9.8%, 5.7%, and 5.3% respectively, indicating a clear shift towards supporting the livelihood sector [2]. - Livelihood-related expenditures now account for over 40% of total fiscal spending, and when including community services, this figure exceeds 47%, reflecting a substantial commitment to social welfare [2]. Group 2: Targeted Subsidy Policies - The implementation of targeted subsidy policies has effectively reduced the financial burden on specific groups, such as families with young children, the elderly, and youth, enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal policies [3]. - A new childcare subsidy program provides 3,600 yuan per child annually for families with children under three, with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan allocated for the first year [3]. - Free preschool education will be implemented starting from the autumn semester of 2025, benefiting around 12 million children, while employment support for youth includes a one-time subsidy of up to 1,500 yuan for companies hiring unemployed youth aged 16-24 [3]. Group 3: Consumption Promotion Policies - The introduction of fiscal interest subsidies aims to stimulate domestic consumption by lowering consumer credit costs, thereby unlocking consumer potential [4]. - The policy combines "small-scale universal support" with "large-scale targeted support," covering both everyday small purchases and significant expenditures in key areas such as automotive, elderly care, education, and healthcare [4]. - The fiscal interest subsidy policy includes support for personal consumption loans and service sector loans, promoting both demand and supply sides to invigorate the consumption market [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policy is expected to maintain an active orientation, focusing on stabilizing overall demand, promoting moderate price recovery, and ensuring economic improvement [5]. - Future fiscal policies are likely to continue leaning towards the livelihood sector, enhancing the support system for childbirth and expanding the reach of consumption stimulus policies [5]. - The government aims to improve policy targeting and effectiveness through "precise measures and classified support," fostering a synergistic relationship between consumption promotion, livelihood enhancement, and economic stability [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is shifting its fiscal policy focus towards enhancing people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, marking a strategic transition from infrastructure investment to human resource investment and social welfare [1][2]. Fiscal Policy and Expenditure - The scale and proportion of fiscal spending on social welfare have both increased, with national public budget expenditure reaching 16.1 trillion yuan from January to July, a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. Spending on social security, education, and health has grown by 9.8%, 5.7%, and 5.3% respectively, significantly outpacing overall fiscal expenditure growth [2]. - Social welfare expenditures now account for over 40% of total fiscal spending, and when including community services, this figure exceeds 47%, indicating that nearly half of fiscal funds are directly allocated to social welfare [2]. - Central and local governments are collaborating effectively to ensure the successful implementation of social welfare policies, with the central government’s transfer payments exceeding 1 trillion yuan this year, focusing on education, health, social security, and employment [2]. Targeted Social Welfare Policies - Social welfare subsidies are being precisely targeted to specific groups, such as families with young children, the elderly, and youth, effectively alleviating their financial burdens in areas like childcare, education, and daily living expenses [3]. - New initiatives include a childcare subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year for families with children under three, with the central government allocating approximately 90 billion yuan for the first year, and free preschool education set to begin in the fall of 2025, benefiting around 12 million children [3]. Consumption Promotion Policies - The government is innovating fiscal interest subsidy policies to stimulate consumption, effectively lowering the cost of consumer credit and unlocking domestic consumption potential [4]. - The policy combines "small-scale universal support" with "large-scale targeted support," covering both everyday small purchases and significant expenditures in key areas such as automobiles, elderly care, education, and healthcare [4]. - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies aims to enhance supply capacity and optimize the consumption service environment, thereby invigorating the consumption market [4]. Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policy will continue to maintain a proactive stance, focusing on stabilizing overall demand, promoting moderate price recovery, and ensuring economic improvement while enhancing social welfare [5]. - Future fiscal policies are expected to further tilt towards social welfare, continuously improving the support system for childbirth and expanding the coverage and effectiveness of consumption stimulus policies [5].

Economic Development - The core viewpoint is that while China's long-term economic fundamentals remain positive, insufficient total demand is a prominent contradiction in the economy. The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in 2024 prioritizes boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency to expand domestic demand comprehensively [3][4]. Consumption Issues - The 2024 Third Plenary Session of the 20th Party Congress emphasizes the need for comprehensive reforms and modernization, with a critical focus on how to stimulate consumption. Experts agree that addressing consumption issues is crucial for economic recovery, especially given the challenges in manufacturing and services due to weak consumer demand [4][5]. - The book "Consumption Prosperity and China's Future" highlights that China's consumption rate is approximately 30 percentage points lower than that of developed countries, indicating a significant gap that needs to be addressed [6]. Policy Recommendations - To stimulate consumption, a policy transformation is necessary. The book suggests that the focus should shift from investment-driven growth to enhancing consumer spending, advocating for measures such as issuing consumption vouchers and improving social security coverage for low- and middle-income groups [7][8]. - The effectiveness of fiscal policies should not only depend on the scale of deficits but also on the direction and structure of fund usage. Allocating more resources to improve people's livelihoods and stimulate consumption is essential for maximizing macroeconomic multipliers [7][8]. Monetary Policy - The book advocates for a moderately loose monetary policy that focuses on domestic economic indicators such as growth, employment, and asset price stability. It suggests exploring new mechanisms for monetary policy transmission that are more closely related to asset prices and consumption expansion [8][9]. Structural Reforms - Structural and systemic issues contribute to weak consumption, necessitating deep economic reforms, particularly in market-oriented reforms. The long-term solution involves reforming income distribution and social security systems to sustain consumption growth [9][10]. - The relationship between government and market roles in resource allocation is critical. The government should minimize direct resource allocation and allow market mechanisms to drive consumption [10][11]. Conclusion - The book provides a comprehensive framework for promoting consumption prosperity, integrating theories on macro consumption suppression, fiscal policy transformation, monetary policy adjustments, and income distribution reforms. This holistic approach aims to address the challenges of insufficient domestic demand and stimulate economic growth [11].

以下文章来源于粤开志恒宏观 ，作者罗志恒 粤开志恒宏观 . 在这里，一起解读中国与世界。立足中国，全球视野；宏大叙事，微观关怀。 作者：罗志恒 晁云霞 自2008年以来，本轮积极财政政策实行了长达17年之久，积极财政政策的内涵和特点也逐渐发生了 变化，及时总结积极财政政策的效果、分析当前财政政策存在的不足，并指出未来财政政策可能的转 型方向具有重要意义。我国积极的财政政策有力地促进了稳增长、惠民生和防风险，发挥了财政作为 国家治理的基础和重要支柱的作用。但积极财政政策仍存在一些不足，亟待转型优化以释放更大的政 策效力。 01 积极财政政策的实施效果 （一）有力地应对了外生冲击、促进了经济稳定 本轮积极财政政策实施以来，成功应对了2008年全球金融危机、2020年新冠疫情等外生冲击，确保 我国经济总体平稳运行。 2008—2010年，以扩大政府投资、实施结构性减税为主的积极财政政策 在供需两端发力，使我国经济保持在9.9%的平均增速，而同期的世界经济平均增速仅为1.7%。 2020年以来，我国在全球经济变局、国内经济新旧动能转换、疫情冲击等多重考验下，以大规模减 税降费和支出结构优化为主的积极财政政策持续发力， ...