Group 1 - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a range-bound trading pattern against the US dollar (USD) due to the Bank of Canada's policy stance, oil price volatility, and uncertainties surrounding the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review [1][2] - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating that the current rate is appropriate, which provides a foundation of support for the CAD [1] - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding future actions by the Bank of Canada, with some institutions predicting potential rate hikes due to persistent inflation, while others foresee continued economic weakness leading to rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - The US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance contrasts with the Bank of Canada's stable policy, affecting the interest rate differential between the US and Canada, which is a significant factor influencing CAD's performance [1][2] - As an energy-exporting currency, the CAD is highly correlated with oil prices; recent fluctuations in oil prices, combined with trade tensions, are suppressing demand expectations and impacting the CAD negatively [1][2] - The annual review of the USMCA is a critical risk factor for the CAD, as changes in trade agreement terms and tariff adjustments could directly impact Canadian export trade, leading to weakened fundamental support for the CAD [2] Group 3 - The CAD is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern in the short term, with strong support levels below and significant resistance above, indicating a lack of clear directional movement [2] - Key variables to monitor include Canadian inflation, employment data, and central bank policy statements, which will directly influence interest rate expectations [2] - The potential for CAD appreciation exists if oil prices rise, the Bank of Canada adopts a more hawkish tone, and trade risks diminish; conversely, CAD may face downward pressure if oil prices decline, trade tensions escalate, or economic data weakens [3]

另一方面，美国拟重启委内瑞拉原油进口计划，预计将为市场带来3000万至5000万桶额外供应，引发全 球原油供应过剩担忧，对加拿大原油出口形成竞争压力，显著压制加元表现。对此，加拿大总理计划通 过访问亚洲国家推动原油出口多元化，降低对美国市场的依赖，一定程度缓和了市场对加元中长期前景 的担忧。此外，美加贸易摩擦、《美墨加协定》审查、美联储主席换届等不确定性因素，也持续对加元 走势形成扰动。 美加央行货币政策路径差异成为加元走势的核心逻辑。2025年美联储累计降息75个基点，当前联邦基金 利率区间为3.5%-3.75%，市场预期2026年9月前再降息两次的概率超90%，但内部对宽松节奏分歧显 著。与之形成对比的是，加拿大央行2025年累计降息100个基点至2.25%后，于12月议息会议中明确暂 停宽松，释放鹰派信号，市场预计3月前无降息动作。 加拿大央行行长蒂夫.麦克勒姆表示，当前政策利率处于合适水平，既能将通胀控制在接近2%的目标附 近，又能帮助经济度过结构调整期。尽管美国高额关税对加拿大钢铁、铝、汽车和木材行业造成冲击， 但经济整体表现出较强韧性：三季度GDP年化意外增长2.6%，扭转此前收缩态势；11月新增 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar (CAD) shows signs of stabilization against the US dollar (USD) despite a recent decline in oil prices, which has limited its rebound potential [1] - Oil prices have dropped nearly $8 per barrel since August, currently hovering around $62, putting pressure on the resource-dependent CAD [1] - The CAD's performance is closely tied to oil price movements due to Canada's heavy reliance on energy exports, making it difficult for the currency to break out of its current range without significant geopolitical risks or OPEC+ interventions [1] Group 2 - The recent decline in the USD/CAD pair may be overextended, indicating a potential upward reversal, although momentum indicators like RSI and MACD still show weakness [2] - A breakthrough above the resistance level of 1.3835 could lead to further challenges at the 1.3930-1.3970 range, while the 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.4017 may pose additional resistance [2] - On the downside, a close below the 50-day SMA at 1.3685 could trigger tests of key support levels at 1.3600 and 1.3565, with the trendline support at 1.3480 potentially preventing further declines towards the January 2024 low around 1.3355 [2]