在经历数月平静后，规模达9.6万亿美元的全球外汇市场波动率重新抬头，为交易员带来获利良机。 美元上周跌至四年低点，欧元则飙升至五年高位，全球货币市场正经历自去年4月以来最剧烈的波动。期权市场信号显 示，这种波动性将在未来数月持续，与2025年下半年主导市场的平静交易形成鲜明对比。 市场行情密集。美元走弱推动英镑升至2021年以来最高水平，瑞士法郎触及2015年以来最强水平。日元在关键大选前 逆势而行，一度接近四十年低点后剧烈震荡。 波动性激增主要源于政策制定的不可预测性。从特朗普威胁攻击格陵兰岛，到美联储政策方向的混乱，这些因素正在 削弱市场对美元的信心。剧烈波动为华尔街创造了盈利机会，它们可从波动价格中获取更高的交易成本。 交易员普遍认为，下一轮疯狂行情只是时间问题。野村国际驻伦敦高级外汇期权交易员Sagar Sambrani表示："在特朗 普总统任内，波动性可能迅速上升，且往往会更快地逆转走势。市场要么处于完全停滞状态——就像过去六个月那 样，要么陷入潜在混乱，多个关键点位被触发。" 关键价位接连失守 美元避险属性失效，特朗普"弱美元"政策预期加剧动荡 特朗普明显支持美元走弱，这与美国通常支持强势美元的立 ...

于是，"血流成河"，又上演了一场经济学的公开课。没有只涨不跌的周期，也没有"这一次不一样"的例外。每一次都一样，成败皆贪婪，涨跌皆泡沫。 这是一次技术性回调，还是黄金牛市的终结，人们莫衷一是。因为谁也预测不了明天，特别是"黑天鹅"乱飞的当下。 所以，美元弱势和黄金牛市，是一个生态位上的跷跷板。美元指数不断走低的过程，恰是黄金价格不断走高的过程，因此一旦弱势美元的政策偏好生变， 美国重新寻求强势美元，那黄金牛市毫无疑问将受阻。 任何政策都有利有弊，没有完美的政策，可以一劳永逸解决所有问题。所谓好的政策，都是解决部分时期的部分问题。弱势美元的"好处"是一方面，但带 来的副作用就是美债收益率不断上升，美国政府的利息负担越来越重，债务危机如影随形。 特别是，弱势美元所导致的美元地位的下降，也在全球导致了进一步去美元化。全球央行持续购金，再加上近年来地缘政治风险劣化加剧，这构成了支撑 黄金牛市的另一种力量。 黄金成了新的修罗场。 1月30日，黄金价格经历了踩踏式的暴跌，并且是过山车式的暴跌。现货黄金价格在势不可挡攀至5600美元之际，便以迅雷不及掩耳之势下坠，一度跌至 4700美元之下，最终当日跌幅超过9%，创下40多 ...

当地时间1月31日，美国总统特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席。美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期尚未结束，但这一提前布局已在华 尔街引发争议。 现年55岁的沃什曾是美联储历史上最年轻的理事之一，以在2008年金融危机期间充当华尔街与华盛顿的"联络人"而闻名。（红星新闻相关报 道：） ▲沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席 有分析认为，如果仅仅将此视为一次人事更迭，便误读了特朗普政府的真正意图，沃什的上台可能意味着，为了重振美国制造业，特朗普政府正试图终 结"强势美元"时代，并将货币政策从属于国家增长战略，一个旨在通过弱势美元重振美国制造业的"海湖庄园三角战略"隐约成型。 "华盛顿-东京-首尔"三角 复刻"里根式"货币策略？ 2025年11月，沃什曾撰文抨击现任美联储领导层"思维僵化"，认为美联储高估了通胀风险，却低估了人工智能（AI）带来的生产力爆发。他主张即使在经济 增长强劲时也可以降息，因为AI的普及将降低单位劳动力成本，从而抑制通胀。 意大利资深评论员费德里科·兰皮尼分析，美元的未来或许并不由华盛顿的埃克尔斯大楼（美联储总部大楼）决定，而是由佛罗里达的海湖庄园决定。 分析称，这让人联想到1985年的"广场协 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts as of January 2026, maintaining the benchmark rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, which aligns with market expectations [5][6] - The FOMC statement reflects a more optimistic outlook on the economy and employment, indicating that the threshold for future rate cuts has increased based on economic data [6][7] - The internal voting threshold for rate cuts has slightly decreased due to the rotation of regional Fed presidents, with a more neutral to dovish stance compared to the previous year [8] Group 2 - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and gold prices surged, breaking through $5,400 per ounce and reaching a new historical high of over $5,500 per ounce, indicating a shift in gold pricing from interest rates to credit risk [6][9] - The market is seeing a significant influx of safe-haven funds into gold, driven by concerns over U.S. dollar assets and the recent comments from former President Trump regarding currency manipulation [9][10] Group 3 - The report highlights the recent decline of the U.S. dollar, which fell over 1.2% to a low of 95.55, the lowest since February 2022, following Trump's comments favoring a weaker dollar to boost the economy [11][12] - Concerns about a potential "Plaza Accord 2.0" are discussed, but the report suggests that achieving such an agreement would be challenging due to the lack of support from other Western nations and the complexities of current economic conditions [13][14] Group 4 - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing slight gains while the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices have declined, indicating a divergence in market trends [25][26] - The report notes that the liquor sector has seen significant investment, with a notable increase of 9.68%, while other sectors like semiconductor and electronic components have faced declines [27][29]

[table_main] 投资要点 [Table_Reportdate] 2026年01月28日 [美元大跌会是广场协议 Table_NewTitle] 2.0吗？ ——海外观察：美国经济热点简评 第一，美日联合干预日元本质上并不是为了令美元贬值，而是对美债收益率上行风险的防 范。1月20日，美国财长贝森特明确表示"日本债券收益率的上行或对美债有外溢风险， 并已对日本进行口头沟通。"那么日债收益率是如何外溢至美债的？我们做一个简单传导 链条：日债收益率上行（价格下跌）——日本机构补仓——被动抛售美债购买日债——美 债收益率上行。不仅如此，日元大幅贬值对美债依然有外溢风险：日元下跌——日本机构 汇率干预——抛售美债获得美元（外汇市场卖出美元买入日元）——美债收益率上行。由 此，美日联合干预日元不是寻求弱势美元，而是不让美债被日本同盟国"背刺"。 第二，特朗普主动寻求"弱势美元"或难获得西方支持。1985年广场协议的汇率干预涉及 英法德其他三个国家。如果只是依靠日元的单边升值很难达到美元普跌的条件。但2026年 美国对格陵兰岛以及丹麦主权的干预和威胁，美国和欧洲之间已经撕开一道不可弥合的地 缘裂缝。美元指数主要权 ...

Group 1 - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a significant structural shift as the Trump administration's nuanced change in attitude towards a strong dollar is becoming a major benefit for Asian currency assets [1] - The dollar index fell to a four-year low in late January, indicating a growing inclination from Washington to utilize currency depreciation to reduce trade deficits and boost exports [1] - Market strategists believe that Asian currencies are in a favorable position to benefit from a weaker dollar, despite ongoing tariff threats [1] Group 2 - Comments from market observers highlight that the Trump administration is taking a calculated risk with currency depreciation, which could be beneficial before the situation escalates [2] - The weakening dollar reflects market unease regarding U.S. policy and economic outlook, with particular focus on major Asian exporters like Japan and South Korea [2] - Analysts suggest that the yen could see a rebound, especially with anticipated monetary policy divergence, as the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates while the Federal Reserve may cut rates [2] Group 3 - The strategy of promoting a weaker dollar may help reduce trade imbalances in the long run but could also trigger extreme financial turmoil and distortions in other areas of the global economy [3]

格隆汇1月28日｜隔夜美元指数暴跌，一度跌至95.51，创2022年2月以来新低。 美国总统特朗普表示，他不认为美元"跌得太多"，并称美元"表现很棒"、汇率本就会波动。他还称希望美元"回归自身应有水平"，并称这是"公平的做法"。 特朗普还暗示自己"可以让美元像溜溜球一样上上下下"，但他同时称这种做法不理想，并借机批评部分亚洲经济体试图通过压低本币来获得竞争优势。 InvestingLive分析师Adam Button指出，特朗普长期以来一直暗示他青睐弱势美元，并认为这将有助于提升美国的出口竞争力。市场将他的言论解读为对美元 走低的默许、甚至是公然推波助澜。此类举动无疑会促使外国资本撤离美元。尽管美股去年的表现尚可，但若折算成外币计价，其成色便大打折扣。 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18% to close at 3946.74 points, with a daily high of 3960.05 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index showed minimal fluctuation, closing at 13080.09 points, with a peak of 13164.97 points [1] - The ChiNext Index increased by 0.25%, ending at 3076.85 points, reaching a maximum of 3113.22 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return for stock ETFs was 0.0%, with the highest return from the Ping An SSE 180 ETF at 1.33% [2] - The highest performing industry index ETF was the China Tai CSCI Nonferrous Metals ETF, yielding 2.9% [2] - The top thematic index ETF was the Yongying CSCI Hong Kong Gold Industry ETF, achieving a return of 4.79% [2] ETF Gains and Losses - The top three ETFs by gain were: - Yongying CSCI Hong Kong Gold Industry ETF (4.79%) - Guotai CSCI Hong Kong Gold Industry ETF (4.55%) - Huazhang CSCI Hong Kong Gold Industry ETF (4.27%) [4][5] - The top three ETFs by loss were: - Guotai CSCI Film and Television Theme ETF (-2.44%) - Penghua CSCI Media ETF (-2.44%) - Yinhua CSCI Film and Television Theme ETF (-2.42%) [4][5] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by inflow were: - Southern CSCI 500 ETF (inflow of 1.06 billion) - Southern CSCI 1000 ETF (inflow of 539 million) - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF (inflow of 491 million) [6][7] - The top three ETFs by outflow were: - Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (outflow of 1.183 billion) - Penghua CSCI National Defense ETF (outflow of 373 million) - Huatai Baichuan CSCI Low Volatility ETF (outflow of 296 million) [6][7] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs by margin buying were: - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF (buying amount of 441 million) - E Fund ChiNext ETF (buying amount of 436 million) - Guotai CSCI All-Index Securities Company ETF (buying amount of 362 million) [8][9] - The top three ETFs by margin selling were: - Huatai Baichuan SSE 300 ETF (selling amount of 40.917 million) - Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (selling amount of 18.278 million) - Huabai CSCI All-Index Securities Company ETF (selling amount of 6.098 million) [8][9] Institutional Insights - Precious metals are expected to maintain a strong trend due to market risk aversion driven by concerns over economic conditions without interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] - Long-term support for gold prices is anticipated due to the rising status of gold as a monetary metal amid de-dollarization and ongoing central bank purchases [11]

Core Insights - Gold prices reached a historic high on September 30, with multiple jewelry stores pricing gold ornaments around 1120 CNY per gram, reflecting a significant increase in retail prices across major brands [1][4] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings surged to 1011.73 tons, the highest since August 2022, indicating a continuous inflow of institutional funds into the gold market [2] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in October and December have increased, with a 89.3% probability for a rate cut in October, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold and enhance its attractiveness [1] Gold Price Trends - Current domestic gold price is 872 CNY per gram, while international gold price stands at 3853 USD per ounce [3] - Major jewelry brands have reported the following gold prices: - Laomiao: 1126 CNY per gram - Liufu: 1123 CNY per gram - Chow Tai Fook: 1123 CNY per gram - Zhou Liufu: 1077 CNY per gram - Jinzun: 1123 CNY per gram - Lao Fengxiang: 1122 CNY per gram - Chao Hong Ji: 1123 CNY per gram - Chow Sang Sang: 1125 CNY per gram - Caibai: 1075 CNY per gram [4] Precious Metal Recovery Prices - Current recovery prices for precious metals are as follows: - Gold: 861 CNY per gram - Platinum: 346 CNY per gram - Palladium: 271 CNY per gram - Silver: 10.00 CNY per gram - 14K Gold: 495 CNY per gram - 18K Gold: 638 CNY per gram - 24K Gold: 856 CNY per gram [5] Hong Kong Gold Prices - Current gold price in Hong Kong is reported at 35314 HKD per tael, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook, Liufu, and Chow Sang Sang all pricing their gold ornaments at 42570 HKD per tael [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank indicates that central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are becoming major driving forces behind gold prices, which recently surpassed $3,800 for the first time, reaching a historic high of $3,855.2 per ounce due to factors such as U.S. interest rate cut expectations, concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, and escalating geopolitical tensions [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. Commerce Department reported a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, with a year-on-year rate stabilizing at 2.9%, aligning with market expectations [4]. - Traders currently estimate a nearly 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October and about 65% in December, driven by the recent moderate inflation data [4]. - Market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations that gold prices may test historical highs again this week, although heavy long positions in the gold market may warrant caution [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Government Factors - Investors are closely monitoring the independence of the Federal Reserve amid President Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran, who has expressed views significantly lower than other Fed officials [5]. - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is looming, with negotiations ongoing to extend government funding, which could impact the release of key economic data [5]. - The potential government shutdown is contributing to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, putting slight pressure on the dollar and supporting precious metals [5]. Group 3: Gold Demand and Supply Dynamics - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings, with annual net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons since 2022, projected to reach 900 tons by 2025 [6]. - The World Gold Council (WGC) anticipates that central bank purchases will account for 23% of total annual demand from 2022 to 2025, double the average from the previous decade [6]. - The European Central Bank's report indicates that two-thirds of central banks invest in gold for diversification, with a significant portion doing so to hedge against geopolitical risks [6]. Group 4: Currency and ETF Influence - The U.S. dollar index fell nearly 0.3%, dropping below 98, with a cumulative decline of over 10% this year due to Fed rate cut expectations and trade policies [7]. - The inverse relationship between gold and the dollar has been particularly strong, with the weakening dollar contributing to rising gold prices [7]. - Gold ETFs have become a significant source of gold demand, with inflows reaching 397 tons in the first half of the year, the highest since 2020 [8]. Group 5: Retail Investment Trends - Retail investment demand for gold products is showing notable changes, with bar investment demand expected to grow by 10% in 2024, while coin purchases are projected to decline by 31% [9]. - The overall purchasing volume in the retail investment market remains strong despite these shifts [9]. Group 6: Jewelry Demand - Jewelry demand is highly sensitive to price changes, with high gold prices leading to a decrease in demand, particularly in major markets like China and India [11]. - The WGC estimates a 14% decline in jewelry gold demand in Q2 2025, reaching the lowest level since Q3 2020, primarily due to high prices [11]. - The global jewelry manufacturing gold usage is expected to decrease by 9% in 2024 and further by 16% in 2025 [11].