美国副总统万斯表示美国正在走向政府停摆，若在9月30日午夜前未达成拨款协议，美国政府将停摆， 可能导致包括非农在内的关键经济数据推迟发布，增加市场不确定性。俄乌冲突升级等地缘事件持续推 升避险需求。 市场对美联储在10月及12月连续降息的预期升温，利率期货显示10月降息概率达89.3%。降息会降低持 有黄金的机会成本，提升黄金吸引力。美元指数下跌至97.9，弱势美元提振了以美元计价的黄金。 全球黄金ETF持仓激增，SPDR黄金ETF持仓量达1011.73吨，为2022年8月以来最高，显示机构资金正持 续流入黄金市场。 1.国际贵金属行情 目前国内黄金价格每克872元，国际金价为3853美元/盎司，国际铂金价格为1634美元/盎司，国际钯金 价格为1295美元/盎司，国际银价为46.75美元/盎司。 2.各大品牌金店今日黄金价格涨跌 摘要9月30日金价创历史新高，多个金店金饰价格来到1120元/克附近，2025年9月3日，各大品牌黄金零 售价格大幅上涨，据金投网统计，目前是老庙价格最高，为1126元/克（工费另计），菜百首饰黄金价 格最低，为1075元/克（工费另计），投资金条价格每克879-899.00元左右 ...

导语 德意志银行认为，各央行与交易所交易基金正成为主要推动力。 受美国降息预期、对美国政府可能停摆的担忧以及地缘政治紧张局势升级影响，投资者选择涌入避险资产，黄金价格周一首次突破3800美元，创下历史新 高。纽约商品交易所12月交割的COMEX黄金期货结算价上涨1.2%，报3855.2美元/盎司。市场分析认为，包括美元指数走弱、央行购买及黄金ETF热销等 因素或将继续主导未来的黄金走势。 Capital分析师罗达（Kyle Rodda）表示："美国此次温和的通胀数据，让市场有理由相信美联储在年内进一步降息。"他进一步分析称，"当前市场情绪非 常乐观，本周金价有望再次测试历史新高。不过，目前黄金市场的多头仓位较重，这可能成为未来金价上行需谨慎的一个原因。" 投资者也在关注美联储独立性问题。美国总统特朗普提名米兰（Stephen Miran）短期填补美联储理事会的空缺后，他投出了唯一一张反对票，联邦利率点 阵图显示，这位白宫经济顾问委员会主席的预测大幅低于其他美联储官员的看法。另一方面，特朗普与美联储理事库克的司法斗争进一步白热化，如果成 功获得这一席位，特朗普将进一步扩大对联邦公开市场委员会FOMC的影响力，干 ...

德意志银行认为，各央行与交易所交易基金正成为主要推动力。 受美国降息预期、对美国政府可能停摆的担忧以及地缘政治紧张局势升级影响，投资者选择涌入避险资产，黄金价格周一首次突破3800美元，创下历史新 高。纽约商品交易所12月交割的COMEX黄金期货结算价上涨1.2%，报3855.2美元/盎司。市场分析认为，包括美元指数走弱、央行购买及黄金ETF热销等 因素或将继续主导未来的黄金走势。 多重利好助推 美国商务部上周五公布的数据显示，美联储最倚重的通胀指标核心个人消费支出（PCE）环比上涨0.2%，同比稳定在2.9%。符合预期。 根据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具（FedWatch Tool）的数据，交易员目前预计美联储在10月降息的概率接近90%，12月再次降息的概率约为65%。 Capital分析师罗达（Kyle Rodda）表示："美国此次温和的通胀数据，让市场有理由相信美联储在年内进一步降息。"他进一步分析称，"当前市场情绪非 常乐观，本周金价有望再次测试历史新高。不过，目前黄金市场的多头仓位较重，这可能成为未来金价上行需谨慎的一个原因。" 投资者也在关注美联储独立性问题。美国总统特朗普提名米兰（Steph ...

大家好，关注一下美元指数的消息。 3）美联储降息往往伴随全球资金再配置。降息促进全球资金流动性释放，中国资产可能相对受益，尤 其是在当前全球货币体系重构背景下。美联储重启降息或将促进全球资金流动性释放、对美元汇率形成 一定下行压力，从而有望进一步推动全球资金再配置。 （文章来源：中国基金报） 消息面上，市场押注美联储本周将开启货币政策宽松周期。随着美元走弱，金价亦创下新高。 期货市场几乎已完全定价9月17日降息25个基点，同时对年底前随后两次会议再各降一次、合计两次降 息的概率接近70%。总体而言，市场更倾向于认为美联储主席鲍威尔将劳动力市场置于通胀之上，并加 速宽松周期的可能性更大，这提振了风险偏好，导致美元下跌。 此外，利率期货已计入至2026年末累计降息125个基点的预期，因此任何不够"鸽派"的信号都可能让投 资者失望。 分析师表示，美元指数仍处于弱势，今年迄今已下跌近11%，反映出市场预期政策放松步伐将加快，以 及风险偏好有所改善。 2）美国降息可能带来弱势美元。2025年以来，美元兑人民币呈下行趋势，从年初的7.3左右下行至近期 的7.1附近。人民币相对升值可能对出口及出海类企业产生一定影响，但相应 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar (CAD) shows signs of stabilization against the US dollar (USD) despite a recent decline in oil prices, which has limited its rebound potential [1] - Oil prices have dropped nearly $8 per barrel since August, currently hovering around $62, putting pressure on the resource-dependent CAD [1] - The CAD's performance is closely tied to oil price movements due to Canada's heavy reliance on energy exports, making it difficult for the currency to break out of its current range without significant geopolitical risks or OPEC+ interventions [1] Group 2 - The recent decline in the USD/CAD pair may be overextended, indicating a potential upward reversal, although momentum indicators like RSI and MACD still show weakness [2] - A breakthrough above the resistance level of 1.3835 could lead to further challenges at the 1.3930-1.3970 range, while the 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.4017 may pose additional resistance [2] - On the downside, a close below the 50-day SMA at 1.3685 could trigger tests of key support levels at 1.3600 and 1.3565, with the trendline support at 1.3480 potentially preventing further declines towards the January 2024 low around 1.3355 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's mixed signals regarding dollar policy highlight a tension between advocating for a strong dollar while acknowledging the benefits of a weaker dollar for U.S. manufacturing [1] Group 1: Dollar Policy - Trump emphasizes that he "will never support a weak dollar" while simultaneously discussing the economic advantages of a low exchange rate for U.S. manufacturing [1] - The comments come amid speculation in the foreign exchange market that the administration may be seeking a weaker dollar [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Impact - Trump notes that manufacturing companies are benefiting from a weaker dollar, suggesting that a strong dollar can deter tourism and sales of U.S. products [1] - He argues that while a strong dollar appears favorable, it can negatively impact sales and exports, stating, "you can't sell factories, trucks, or anything" [1] Group 3: Inflation Perspective - Trump claims that a strong dollar is beneficial for controlling inflation, but he asserts that inflation is not currently a concern, stating, "we have already eliminated inflation" [1]

Group 1: Silver Futures Performance - On June 16, the main silver futures in Shanghai reported at 8802 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.18% [1] - The opening price for the day was 8801 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 8848 CNY and a low of 8789 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - Trump indicated that the U.S. may still intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict, stating that if Iran attacks the U.S., it will respond with unprecedented force [2] - The U.S. one-year inflation rate expectation for June is initially set at 5.1%, compared to a forecast of 6.4% and a previous value of 6.60% [2] - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for June is 60.5, exceeding the forecast of 53.5 and the previous value of 52.2 [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Haitong Futures noted that despite gold not breaking out of its top range, COMEX gold closed at a historical high of 3452.6 USD last week [3] - Silver's upward momentum has slowed after a significant rally, with the gold-silver ratio quickly retreating to around 90 [3] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated following Israel's large-scale airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a spike in WTI crude oil prices by 13% and a concurrent rise in gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - U.S. CPI and PPI data for May showed inflation below market expectations, with core CPI remaining below expectations for four consecutive months, indicating reduced inflation risks [3] - The continued depreciation of the dollar has been observed, with the weekly closing price reaching a near three-year low [3] - The first meeting of the China-U.S. trade negotiation mechanism concluded with both sides agreeing on a framework to implement the consensus from the leaders' call [3] - Although tariff negotiations have not yet propelled gold prices further, the weak dollar and geopolitical factors suggest that gold is likely to rise rather than fall [3] - Short-term focus is on whether gold can break the key level of 3500 USD, with the COMEX price range adjusted to 3200-3600 USD, and a strategy of buying on dips for gold and silver is recommended [3]

Group 1 - The US non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, leading to a stronger dollar and a decline in gold prices [1] - Chinese central bank's gold reserves increased to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] - The World Gold Council (WGC) maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing potential price increases due to inflation eroding real yields and economic slowdown impacting equities and cyclical commodities [1] Group 2 - Despite a slowdown in the US economy, non-farm employment and unemployment rates remain stable, indicating that a recession has not yet occurred [2] - The pressure on the dollar is easing, but geopolitical factors and a weak dollar may still lead to a challenging environment for gold prices [2] - The recent slight pullback in gold prices is influenced by tariff uncertainties, but the overall price trend is expected to rise [1][2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the mixed signals in the crude oil market, highlighting the potential for a rebound amid a weak dollar environment [1] - It raises questions about the opportunities for the euro and yen in the current market context [1] - The analysis is provided by Jerry, a senior analyst at a financial services company, indicating a focus on real-time market insights [1]