Group 1 - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a shift where macroeconomic data, particularly inflation indicators, are becoming the primary drivers of currency movements, overshadowing political rhetoric such as tariff threats [1] - The recent performance of the US dollar illustrates this data-driven characteristic, as its strength is more attributed to fundamental support like rising US Treasury yields rather than political statements [2] - The Canadian dollar is under multiple pressures, including political uncertainty from US tariff threats and upcoming domestic employment data that may reveal economic weaknesses, leading to potential downward risks [3] Group 2 - The euro is facing a unique challenge as its strength, while enhancing its status as a strategic asset, is also eroding the competitiveness of European exporters amid global demand weakness and new tariff risks [4] - The European Central Bank is in a delicate policy dilemma due to the rapid appreciation of the euro, which has implications for its monetary policy considerations [4][5] - The current foreign exchange market is in a cautious wait-and-see mode, with pricing strategies becoming more precise, and the next major movement will depend on whether inflation data alters Federal Reserve policy expectations [6]

"解构美联储→欧央行→日银政策冲击波：从美元霸权裂痕到新兴市场货币休克疗法" 经济环境纳入外汇交易策略，系统性整合经济指标分析、政策预期、市场情绪及风险管理。 一经济指标的核心作用和交易映射 1. 利率和货币政策 1. 机制：央行利率决议直接影响资本流动。例如，美联储加息通常推升美元汇率（利差扩大吸引套息资 金），而欧央行降息则压制欧元。 1. 提前布局：根据利率期货市场隐含概率预判政策方向。 2. 事件交易：政策公布后 3 分钟内突破入场，止损设于前高 / 低点外 20 点。 2. 通胀经济增长数据 2. 跨市场验证：大宗商品价格上涨时，同步做多 AUD/CAD（商品货币联动）。 1. GDP/CPI 的传导逻辑： 1. 高通胀 → 央行加息预期升温 → 货币短期走强。 2. 案例：2024 年 9 月美联储降息后，美元指数单日下跌 1.2%，EUR/USD 突破 1.08 阻力位。 3. 策略应用： 2. 但持续高通胀可能损害经济 → 货币长期贬值。 2. 策略应用： 1. 数据背离交易：当 GDP 强劲但就业疲软时（如美国 2025Q1 GDP+3.2% vs 失业率 4.5%），做多避险 货币 JPY ...

"基于2,300+突发新闻事件的数据解构：为何欧元闪崩150点而人民币仅微动18点？" 财经新闻对不同货币对的影响存在显著差异，主要源于各类货币的经济结构、市场流动性、风险属性及 政策敏感性不同。基于新闻类型和货币类别进行系统性分析： 一、按新闻类型分类的影响差异 1. 经济数据类新闻（如就业、通胀） 1. 主要货币对（EUR/USD、USD/JPY）：对美欧数据高度敏感。 2. 商品货币（AUD/USD、USD/CAD）：更关注大宗商品价格及中国需求数据。 3. 新兴市场货币（USD/CNH、USD/BRL）：波动受资本流动驱动，如中美利差倒挂 300 基点时，人民 币短期承压。 2. 央行政策类新闻 1. 美元货币对：美联储决议主导市场，鹰派声明可推升美元指数，2024 年 9 月降息后美股大涨，非美 货币普遍走弱。 2. 套息交易货币（JPY、CHF）：日本央行政策突变引发剧烈震荡。2022 年日央行干预 USD/JPY，10 分钟暴跌 500 点，但趋势一周后反转。 3. 新兴市场货币：政策独立性强但脆弱性高。2025 年中国央行降息后人民币短期贬值，但经济企稳后 反弹；土耳其央行激进加息未能阻止里拉 ...

加元在关税威胁后保持疲软 金十数据7月11日讯，在特朗普威胁要对加拿大征收35%的关税后，加元兑美元汇率在隔夜触及两周低 点后继续保持疲软。德国商业银行分析师迈克尔·菲斯特在一份报告中说，美元兑加元的交易员不应该 太自信特朗普现在会放过他的北方邻国。加元"未来几周将面临动荡"。 美元/加元 ...

N 多头 v 空头 ~ 多头 w 空头 58.29% 41.71% 49.68% 50.32% 美元/瑞郎 美元/加元 w 空头 N 多头 v、空头 ~多头 85% 15% 55.13% 44.87% 纽元/美元 英镑/美元 N 多头 v 空头 N 多头 w 空头 56.05% 43.95% 40.6% 59.4% 英镑/瑞郎 英镑/日元 ~多头 w 空头 ~ 多头 v 空头 57.76% 13.81% 42.24% 86.19% t 176 欧元/美元 欧元/日元 v 空头 v 空头 N 多头 N 多头 30.36% 39.6% 60.4% 69.64% 欧元/英镑 欧元/瑞郎 N. N. Da N 多头 v 空头 ~ 多头 w 空头 17.71% 22.87% 77.13% 82.29% 欧元/澳元 澳元/美元 N 客斗 v 容易 y 名业 v 33 " 2 " TH 4 2 V 1.1 > 53.67% 46.33% 40.9% 59.1% 澳元/日元 N 多头 v 空头 46.94% 53.06% 金十图示：2025年07月11日（周五）投机情绪指数 @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 ...

特朗普关税言论发酵，纳指期货跌幅扩大至0.6%，美元指数DXY涨幅扩大至0.2%，加元兑美元走贬约 0.5%，现货黄金小幅走高。 美元指数 现货黄金 ...

金十图示：2025年07月10日（周四）投机情绪指数 @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 N 多头 v 空头 ~ 多头 w 空头 62.45% 37.55% 51.29% 48.71% 美元/瑞郎 美元/加元 w 空头 v、空头 ~多头 N 多头 87.58% 12.42% 52.65% 47.35% 纽元/美元 英镑/美元 w 空头 N 多头 w 空头 N 多头 58.89% 38.18% 61.82% 41.11% 英镑/瑞郎 英镑/日元 ~多头 w 空头 ~ 多头 v 空头 58.1% 13.26% 41.9% 86.74% 117 欧元/美元 欧元/日元 N 多头 w 空头 v 空头 N 多头 27.74% 72.26% 29.72% 70.28% 欧元/英镑 欧元/瑞郎 4 1, 20 w 空头 N 多头 w 空头 ~ 多头 21.22% 78.78% 86.69% 13.31% 欧元/澳元 澳元/美元 1189 N 名业 v 容易 y 名礼 v 33 . t 21 " 21 . . -1.1 > 27.31% 72.69% 48.03% 51.97% 澳元/日元 N 多头 v 空头 ...

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周三公布了新一轮关税信函，将于8月对来自未能与美国达成协议的贸易伙伴的 进口商品征收这些关税。 美联储6月份会议纪要显示，央行官员对利率前景的分歧主要源自他们对关税通胀影响的不同预期。 新西兰元兑美元涨0.1%，新西兰央行维持利率不变，仍为3.25%。 周三（7月9日）纽约尾盘，美元兑日元跌近0.2%，报146.32日元，日内交投区间为146.25-147.18日元。 欧元兑美元基本持平，报1.1722，美元兑瑞郎跌0.2%。 商品货币对中，美元兑加元涨0.2%。 ...

Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate has dropped to around 1.1705, while the pound has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, surpassing the 1.3700 mark during the European session [1] - The US dollar has regained strength against the yen, breaking through the 147.00 level, and the Australian dollar is fluctuating above 0.6500 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is showing an upward trend, trading around 0.6050, and the US dollar has also strengthened against the Canadian dollar, climbing to approximately 1.3700 [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that those who challenge the dollar will pay a price, emphasizing the dollar's dominance [2] - Trump also suggested that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell misleads Congress, he should resign immediately and called for an interest rate cut [3] - According to the Wall Street Journal, National Economic Council Director Hassett is a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, having met with Trump in June [3] Group 3 - Fitch Ratings indicated that US stablecoin legislation could address key credit risks and enhance usage [4] - The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected that by the early 2070s, UK debt will exceed 270% of GDP [5] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority provided liquidity of 46.7 billion HKD to banks through the discount window [6] - The Bank of Japan's committee member noted that the weighted median inflation remains below 2%, requiring careful examination of inflation stability in Japan's economy [6] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, and indicated potential future rate cuts if mid-term inflation pressures ease [6] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 30 economists surveyed expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower the cash rate to 3.60% in August [6] Group 4 - The Thai Industrial Federation estimated that Thailand's exports have suffered losses of approximately 800 to 900 billion THB due to US tariff measures [7] - The Vietnamese Prime Minister stated that achieving a growth target of at least 8% by 2025 is a significant challenge [8] - The Bank of Thailand's meeting minutes suggested that monetary policy should remain accommodative to support economic development, with a low likelihood of a technical recession [8] Group 5 - Technical analysis for EUR/USD indicates resistance at the 2025 high of 1.1830, with support at the 55-day simple moving average at 1.1428 [9] - For AUD/USD, the Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows the pair testing the baseline, indicating potential short-term downside risk, although the overall trend remains unchanged [9] - GBP/USD is currently contesting the 2022 high of 1.3643, with support from the 21-day simple moving average at 1.3588 [10]

瑞典克朗兑美元涨0.18%，挪威克朗兑美元涨0.42%。丹麦克朗兑美元涨0.15%，波兰兹罗提兑美元涨 0.31%。 周二（7月8日）纽约尾盘，美元兑日元涨0.34%，报146.55日元，日内交投区间为145.83-146.98日元。 欧元兑美元涨0.16%，英镑兑美元跌0.08%，美元兑瑞郎跌0.32%。 商品货币对中，澳元兑美元涨0.60%，纽元兑美元涨0.07%，美元兑加元跌0.14%。 ...