截至2026年2月25日，加元兑美元实时汇率报0.7302，较前一交易日微涨0.027%，昨收0.7300、今开 0.7301，近期呈窄幅震荡、整体偏弱态势。加元走势受多重因素影响，加拿大央行利率维稳提供短期支 撑，但经济疲软、出口承压及美国贸易扰动，使其短期难破震荡区间，中期取决于经济复苏与货币政策 导向。 关键点位方面，上方0.7350-0.7360压力凸显，多次未能突破，站稳后可看向0.7400关口；下方0.7280为 关键支撑，跌破或下探0.7250-0.7270区间。 2025年加元兑美元震荡下行，围绕0.72-0.74区间波动，主要受央行降息、经济放缓及美国贸易扰动影 响。当年10月央行将利率降至2.25%后暂停降息，汇率进入窄幅震荡，年底收于0.73附近。 2026年机构预判谨慎，多数认为央行维稳将限制加元下行，经济疲软与出口压力制约上行，预计全年波 动于0.72-0.745区间。中加经贸落地、原油回升将提振加元；美国贸易收紧、经济复苏不及预期则可能 导致其走弱。 投资者短期关注加拿大通胀、失业率及美国贸易动向，中期跟踪经济复苏、央行政策及大宗商品走势。 当前汇率震荡博弈，建议谨慎操作、控制仓位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the Euro, British Pound, and commodity currencies against the US Dollar during the week. Group 1: Currency Performance - The Euro appreciated by 0.04% against the US Dollar, closing at 1.1875, with a weekly gain of 0.51% [1] - The British Pound increased by 0.33% against the US Dollar over the week [1] - The US Dollar depreciated by 1.07% against the Swiss Franc [1] Group 2: Commodity Currencies - The Australian Dollar rose by 0.89% against the US Dollar [1] - The New Zealand Dollar increased by 0.44% against the US Dollar [1] - The US Dollar fell by 0.41% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Group 3: Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish Krona appreciated by 1.31% against the US Dollar [1] - The Norwegian Krone increased by 1.98% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krone rose by 0.50% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty gained 0.73% against the US Dollar [1] - The Hungarian Forint increased by 0.14% against the US Dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - Since the 1990s, global foreign exchange reserves have steadily increased, driven by geopolitical economic risks and the development of global financial markets, leading to a diversification trend in reserve currency selection by central banks. While the dominance of the US dollar remains strong, its share is continuously declining, and emerging reserve currencies like the renminbi are gradually gaining prominence. Geopolitical competition, the need for financial risk diversification, and changes in global trade structures are collectively pushing the international monetary system towards a more diversified and balanced direction [1]. Group 1: Evolution of International Reserve Currency Landscape - Under the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar was the sole reserve currency, linked to gold, but structural contradictions emerged in the 1960s, leading to the need for a diversified reserve system [2]. - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked the beginning of a multi-currency international reserve system, with the introduction of the Jamaican system in 1976 [2]. - The emergence of the euro in 1999 restructured the international reserve currency landscape, with its share peaking at 27% before the Eurozone crisis and Brexit affected its international standing [2][3]. Group 2: Growth of Global Foreign Exchange Reserves - Global foreign exchange reserves have grown from approximately $1.4 trillion in 1995 to over $12 trillion in 2023, an increase of about eight times over 28 years [4]. - The period from 1995 to 2008 saw rapid growth in foreign exchange reserves, driven by the Asian financial crisis, the rise of exports, and the dollar-centric international financial system [7][8]. - After the global financial crisis in 2008, foreign exchange reserves continued to grow until around 2012, with a shift in the main drivers of growth [10]. - From 2016 to 2021, foreign exchange reserves steadily increased due to the recovery of the global economy and commodity prices, despite setbacks from the COVID-19 pandemic [11]. - In 2022, global foreign exchange reserves decreased by about $1 trillion due to aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and other economic factors, but showed signs of recovery in 2023 [13]. Group 3: Trends in Reserve Currency Diversification - Central banks are increasingly diversifying their reserve currency choices, with traditional currencies like the US dollar and euro declining in share, while emerging currencies like the renminbi are on the rise [14][16]. - The share of the US dollar peaked at over 70% around 2000 and has since declined to below 60%, while the euro's share has decreased from about 30% to around 20% [16]. - Emerging reserve currencies such as the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and renminbi have seen their shares gradually increase, with the renminbi rising from 0% to 2-3% since joining the SDR basket [17]. Group 4: Drivers of Reserve Currency Diversification - Geopolitical and economic risks, particularly highlighted by the financial sanctions against Russia, have prompted countries to reassess their reliance on the US dollar and seek alternative currencies and assets [19]. - Financial risks motivate central banks to diversify their holdings to mitigate currency risk and enhance resilience against economic shocks, particularly from the US [22]. - The maturation of global financial markets has facilitated the holding and trading of various currencies, making it easier for central banks to manage their reserves [23]. - Structural changes in international trade and finance, such as China's rise in global trade, have created incentives for trading partners to hold renminbi assets [25].

Group 1: Australian Economic Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Deputy Governor, Andrew Hagger, warned that inflation remains "too high," posing a significant challenge for the interest rate-setting committee, which cannot allow this situation to persist for too long [1][6] - Hagger indicated that part of the price increase reflects rising demand in the economy against supply constraints, suggesting that the risk of sustained high inflation may continue [1][6] - The RBA's measures to achieve an economic soft landing post-pandemic have resulted in the Australian economy being closer to a balanced state compared to some international peers, with any economic activity surge potentially driving up prices [1][6] Group 2: Currency Movements - The Australian dollar (AUD) experienced a significant rise, breaking the 0.7100 mark, supported by Hagger's hawkish comments that heightened expectations for RBA rate hikes [4][10] - The AUD is projected to continue its upward trend, making it one of the best-performing currencies this year [1][6] - The rise in commodity prices, including oil and copper, has also provided support for the AUD [4][10] Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate until May, with a potential rate cut following the appointment of a new chair in June [2][7] - Over 70% of surveyed economists expressed concerns about the significant loss of independence of the Federal Reserve [2][7] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair has led to mixed opinions among economists regarding his policy stance, with early indications leaning towards tightening but recent comments suggesting a possible inclination towards rate cuts [2][8] Group 4: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have been on the rise, recovering above the 5100 mark, driven by persistent risk aversion in the market and central banks increasing their gold reserves [3][9] - However, strong U.S. non-farm payroll data has tempered expectations for Fed rate cuts, limiting the rebound potential for gold [3][9] Group 5: USD/CAD Currency Dynamics - The USD/CAD pair saw a slight increase, trading around 1.3580, supported by technical buying near the 1.3500 level and a strong dollar index following robust non-farm payroll data [5][11] - Concerns over oil supply have limited the rebound potential for the USD/CAD pair [5][11]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Mitsubishi UFJ Bank strategist Lee Hardman indicates that the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso may weaken if U.S. President Trump threatens to withdraw from the USMCA agreement [1] Group 1 - Hardman notes that it is not surprising to see Trump use the threat of withdrawal as leverage to negotiate more favorable terms based on his past negotiation strategies [1] - Despite the risks posed to the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso in the coming months, market skepticism regarding the actual implementation of such threats is expected to limit the extent of currency depreciation [1]

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced significant volatility entering 2026, with spot gold prices reaching a historic high of $5,598.75 per ounce, although prices later corrected but remained elevated [1] - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the world's second-largest official reserve asset, driven by increasing geopolitical risks, rising sovereign debt pressures, and weakening trust in traditional safe-haven assets [1] - Central banks have significantly increased gold reserves in response to rising sovereign credit risks, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, and reaching 863 tons in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The sovereign credit crisis undermines the foundation of the dollar's reserve status, as the U.S. fiscal deficit continues to grow and national debt reaches new highs, raising concerns about long-term repayment capabilities [2] - The combination of rising domestic debt interest levels and the U.S. government's "America First" policies has led to increased borrowing costs, heightening international investor concerns about U.S. creditworthiness [2] - A notable market phenomenon occurred in April 2025, where U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar index all declined simultaneously, indicating a shift in the definition of "safe assets" [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role as the global "lender of last resort," providing liquidity through mechanisms like currency swaps, which is contingent on its independence [3] - The diversification of the international reserve system is accelerating, with non-dollar sovereign currencies gaining traction, and the eurozone's increased defense spending creating new opportunities for the euro [3] - Emerging currencies like the renminbi are expanding their roles in cross-border trade settlements and regional financial cooperation, while the rapid development of global digital currencies is reshaping the payment system and reserve currency landscape [3]

Core Insights - The international gold market has experienced significant volatility, with spot gold prices reaching a historical high of $5,598.75 per ounce in 2026, driven by geopolitical risks, rising sovereign debt pressures, and diminishing trust in traditional safe-haven assets [1] - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the world's second-largest official reserve asset, reflecting a shift in the international monetary system [1] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions have undermined the credibility of sovereign currencies, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, central banks globally have significantly increased their gold reserves, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, and reaching 863 tons in 2025 [1] Sovereign Credit Crisis - The sovereign credit crisis poses a direct threat to the dollar's reserve status, as the U.S. faces growing concerns over its long-term debt repayment capabilities due to rising fiscal deficits and national debt [2] - In 2025, U.S. debt interest payments surpassed defense spending for the first time, raising alarms in international markets about the safety of dollar assets [2] - The combination of trade wars and "America First" policies has led to increased domestic debt interest levels, heightening international investor concerns about U.S. creditworthiness [2] Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role as the global "lender of last resort," providing liquidity through mechanisms like currency swaps, which is vital for maintaining the stability of the dollar system [3] - Changes in the structure and functions of the Federal Reserve could have profound implications for the stability of the dollar system [3] Diversification of International Reserve System - The process of diversifying the international reserve system is accelerating, with non-dollar sovereign currencies gaining prominence [3] - The eurozone's recent expansion of collective defense spending presents new opportunities for the euro financing market, while resource-linked currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars are becoming more attractive amid energy transitions [3] - The Chinese yuan is increasingly playing a role in cross-border trade settlements and regional financial cooperation, enhancing its reserve function [3] - The rapid development of global digital currencies is reshaping payment systems and influencing the landscape of reserve currencies [3] Conclusion - The turbulence in the gold market signals a significant transformation in the international monetary system, driven by changing global economic dynamics and geopolitical risks [3]

2月11日，美国商务部公布的数据显示，12月未经通胀调整的零售销售额环比0%，大幅不及预期的 0.4%，亦低于11月0.6%的增幅。剔除汽车和加油站销售的核心零售销售环比下降0.1%。数据公布后， 美国国债价格上涨，美元指数短线走低，日内一度转跌。该报告加剧了市场对消费者支出动能的担忧， 而消费者支出是美国经济增长的主要推动力。在13个零售类别中，有8类销售额出现下降。服装店和家 具店销售同比下滑，汽车经销商销售额也录得下降。与之相对，建材商店与体育用品店支出则实现增 长。消费动能的结构同样值得关注。尽管股市上涨可能支撑了高收入家庭支出，但数据显示，主要依赖 工资增长的低收入群体消费表现依然疲弱。 另外，白银价格波动最近开始缓和，目前在每盎司80美元的高位区间盘整。尽管市场价格仍远低于上月 创下的历史高点，但根据世界白银协会的最新报告，长期上涨趋势依然受到强劲基本面的支撑。 该报 告指出，白银最大的基本面支撑来自持续的供需失衡，预计这种情况将持续到2026年，这标志着白银市 场连续第六年出现结构性供应短缺。据世界白银协会预计，缺口将高达6700万盎司。 分析师在报告中 指出："支撑白银价格在2025年大部分时 ...

加拿大2025年四季度经济产出停滞，失业率维持6.8%高位，内需疲软叠加出口萎缩拖累基本面。美国 当前对加拿大平均关税升至5.9%，已导致其出口萎缩。 美联储近期释放鹰派信号，推动美元指数反弹(2月3日涨0.67%收于97.635)，压制加元走势。市场对美联 储降息预期推迟至2026年6月，年内预计降息54个基点。2024年10月以来美加利差扩大1个百分点致加元 贬值1%，虽近期利差边际收敛，但加拿大疲软基本面难以转化为支撑。 加元与国际原油价格相关性达0.7，原油出口是其核心支撑。前期中东地缘紧张推高WTI原油至65美元/ 桶上方，为加元提供短期支撑；但2月以来美伊谈判缓和，WTI原油四连跌累计超5%，现价回落至62美 元/桶，削弱加元支撑。 中长期看，IEA预测2026年全球原油需求仅增0.8%，叠加美国拟重启委内瑞拉原油进口，加剧供应过剩 压力；不过加拿大总理计划访亚推动原油出口多元化，有望缓解加元中长期贬值压力。 今日(2026年2月6日)，加元汇率窄幅震荡，多空博弈明显。1月28日，加拿大央行连续第二次维持基准 利率2.25%不变(银行利率2.5%、存款利率2.20%)，符合市场预期。央行表示，全球 ...

1美元兑换156.90日元，高于前一交易日的156.82日元；1美元兑换0.7774瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.7766瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3682加元，高于前一交易日的1.3668加元；1美元兑换9.0363瑞典克朗，高 于前一交易日的8.9864瑞典克朗。 新华财经纽约2月5日电美元指数5日上涨。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.21%，在汇市尾市收于97.824。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1794美元，低于前一交易日的1.1809美元；1英镑兑换1.3549美元，低 于前一交易日的1.3663美元。 （文章来源：新华社） ...