截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1609美元，高于前一交易日的1.1547美元；1英镑兑换1.3346美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3281美元。 （文章来源：新华社） 新华财经纽约10月10日电美元指数10日下跌。 1美元兑换151.72日元，低于前一交易日的153.18日元；1美元兑换0.8013瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.8074瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.4000加元，低于前一交易日的1.4031加元；1美元兑换9.5216瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.5587瑞典克朗。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.56%，在汇市尾市收于98.977。 ...

Group 1 - U.S. Congress leaders are set to meet with President Trump to discuss a short-term spending bill, with a government shutdown looming if an agreement is not reached by Tuesday [1] - Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on films produced outside the U.S. and high tariffs on furniture not made in the U.S. to boost domestic industries [1] - The New York Fed President Williams indicates that current policies remain tight to control inflation, with a long way to go to achieve the 2% inflation target [1] Group 2 - The SEC Chairman Atkins announces plans for "minimal regulation" and to expedite the proposal to eliminate quarterly earnings reports for companies [2] - Japan's central bank member Noguchi states that Japan is making steady progress towards its 2% inflation target, making the adjustment of policy rates more urgent than ever [2] - A joint statement from the U.S. Treasury, Swiss Treasury, and Swiss National Bank reaffirms that they will not use exchange rates as a competitive target [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.15% to 46,316.07 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.26% to 6,661.21 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.48% to 22,591.15 points [3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.42% to $3,862.90 per ounce, and silver futures rose by 0.97% to $47.11 per ounce [3] - U.S. oil futures fell by 3.86% to $63.18 per barrel, and Brent crude futures dropped by 3.51% to $66.79 per barrel [3] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.26% to 97.94, while the euro and pound both appreciated against the dollar [4] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose by 0.61% to 96.97, marking a new high since April [4]

美元兑加元始终站在9日指数移动平均线（EMA）上方，该均线当前位于1.3838，这一走势说明短期价 格动能仍偏强。上行方向，美元兑加元已突破8月22日创下的四个月高点1.3924；接下来有望向5月13日 触及的五个月高点1.4016发起冲击。 周五（9月26日）亚盘早盘，美元兑加元最新价报1.3939，涨幅0.03%，开盘价为1.3935。加拿大央行于 上周宣布降息25个基点，与美联储同步进入宽松周期，但其政策节奏更为前置、力度也相对积极，形成 一种与美联储"政策补位"相区别的取向。 从汇率传导机制来看，加拿大央行较早启动降息，通常会导致加元承受下行压力。由于加元在美元指数 货币篮子中占有一定权重，加元走弱客观上会为美元指数的反弹提供额外支撑。这一现象也印证了在当 前阶段，美联储采取"追赶式宽松"的背景下，美元相对于其他已开启宽松周期的主要货币仍具备比较优 势。然而，从更长期的利率周期视角分析，由于加拿大央行提前进入降息通道，其后续政策空间已相对 收窄。随着美联储在未来逐步转向降息，而加拿大本国利率周期逐步进入中后段，美加两国之间的利差 预计将逐步收窄。这一趋势一旦形成，有望在远期对加元汇率构成基本面支撑，并 ...

美元或将出现持续且广泛的抛售，这是来自大摩的最新判断，且认为政府关门是美元的"潜在利空"因素。 9月23日，据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称， 美元已进入"熊市机制"，预计这一状态将持续更长时间，带来广泛的美元卖压。 大摩策略师David S. Adams认为，美联储在鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔讲话后明确转向优先保护就业市场，即便以容忍高于目标的通胀为代价， 这一政策立场的转变 为美元熊市提供了持续动力 。 美联储政策转向触发美元熊市机制 摩根士丹利在年中展望中曾预测美元将持续走弱，但当时预期最可能的市场机制是"防御机制"，即实际利率和盈亏平衡点同时下降。 然而，自5月以来的实际情况有所不同： 实际利率确实下降了，但盈亏平衡点有所扩大。这种动态正是该行四机制框架所显示的"美元熊市机制"。 大摩指出， 关键的是，市场定价显示美元的利差优势将在未来12个月内下降近100个基点，这将显著降低做空美元的成本。 美国政府关门风险正在上升， 摩根士丹利认为这对美元构成潜在利空 。Polymarket市场数据显示，政府关门概率近期明显上升，这可能进一步 增加美元的风 险溢价 。 研报称，美联储货币政策委员会反应函数的明显转 ...

Core Insights - The global currency payment market is experiencing a quiet shift in power, with the US dollar's share in global payments declining to 46.94% by August 2025, a decrease of 1 percentage point, while the euro's share increased by 2.5 percentage points to 25.61% [1][3] - Despite the dollar's continued dominance, its leading position is being eroded by a trend towards de-dollarization, with many countries seeking alternative payment solutions [3] - The eurozone's performance is notable, achieving a recent high of 25.61% in payment share, indicating economic resilience, while traditional currencies like the British pound and Japanese yen show limited growth [3] - The international status of the renminbi is steadily rising, being the only emerging market currency among the top six active currencies globally, facing competition from the euro [3] - The renminbi's cross-border payment system has reached 189 countries and regions, with the CIPS system processing 90.19 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating significant internationalization progress [5] - Recent currency swap agreements totaling 540 billion yuan with the European Central Bank, Switzerland, and Hungary further demonstrate the renminbi's growing international appeal [5] Summary by Category Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar's share in global payments has decreased to 46.94%, while the euro's share has increased to 25.61% [1][3] - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with countries exploring alternative payment methods [3] Eurozone Performance - The eurozone has achieved a payment share of 25.61%, marking a recent high and showcasing economic resilience [3] Renminbi Internationalization - The renminbi is the only emerging market currency among the top six active currencies, with a cross-border payment system covering 189 countries [3][5] - CIPS processed 90.19 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating robust internationalization [5] - Recent currency swap agreements totaling 540 billion yuan highlight the renminbi's increasing attractiveness [5]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【美国初请失业金人数下降，彭博美元指数升至日内高点】美国最新单周首次申领失业救济人数下降， 扭转前一周猛增态势，彭博美元指数升至日内高点。 彭博美元指数上涨0.4%，创9月2日以来最大盘中 涨幅，自美联储主席鲍威尔强调依赖数据决策后，延续涨势。 美国首次申领失业救济人数为23.1万，预 期24万；持续申领人数192万，预期195万。有分析称这组数据稳健，不过仍认为10月降息25个基点可能 性最大。 10年期美国国债收益率上升约2个基点，至4.11%；彭博美元指数1个月期风险逆转回升，报约 11.6个基点，看跌期权需求强于看涨。 英国央行货币政策委员会以7比2投票维持利率不变，虽暗示对未 来降息谨慎，英镑仍跌至盘中低点。 英镑/美元跌至日内低点1.3534，互换交易员预计到2026年底仅一 次25个基点降息。高盛称关键看11月会议是否维持按季度降息节奏。 欧元/美元下跌0.2%，至1.789，虽 实钱账户在特定区域买入，但快钱资金仍在卖出欧元，技术图形向欧元多头发出警示。 美元/日元上涨 0.6%，至147.89，逼近200日均线148.67；加元下跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for the Canadian dollar is maintained as neutral to bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The global market is in a super interest - rate decision week. The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%, while the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep rates unchanged. The weakening of the Canadian dollar is due to factors such as the poor economic fundamentals of Canada and external risks [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Economic Data and Interest - Rate Expectations - US inflation growth in August met economists' expectations, with the CPI rising 2.9% year - on - year and core inflation rising 3.1% year - on - year [1] - The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate at 2.75% in July, the fourth consecutive time. Officials discussed rate cuts but decided to maintain. Traders expect a 0.25 - point rate cut this month due to the shrinking economy and poor employment [2] - Canada's Q2 GDP shrank 1.6% year - on - year, the first contraction in nearly two years and the largest since the COVID - 19 pandemic, worse than the expected 0.6% decline. The unemployment rate in August rose to 7.1% from 6.9% in July, the highest in 9 years [2] Currency Outlook - The Canadian dollar is short - term bearish. The US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate is around 1.376 and is expected to fluctuate between 1.372 and 1.392 in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar faces increasing unfavorable factors, with short-term stock market volatility potentially acting as an additional obstacle. However, the overall expectation is that the recent gains of the US dollar may not be sustainable, and market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut remain, which could exert downward pressure on the dollar [1] Group 1 - The fair value estimate for USD/CAD has slightly increased to 1.3622, up from a lower level at the previous week's close [1] - The biggest risk for the Canadian dollar this week is the upcoming US non-farm payroll data, which, if stronger than expected, could reduce the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month, thereby negatively impacting the Canadian dollar [1]

Group 1 - The focus in the foreign exchange market remains on the US dollar and Federal Reserve policy expectations, with the dollar index closing at approximately 97.85 after a decline of about 2.2% in August [1] - Market consensus indicates a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, estimated at around 87%, primarily due to lackluster PCE data [1] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump-related policies and discussions about the independence of the Federal Reserve are putting short-term pressure on the dollar [1] Group 2 - The euro and pound have shown relative strength against the dollar, while the yen has potential for mid-term appreciation due to ongoing international risk aversion, although unclear policy signals from the Bank of Japan limit its strength [1] - The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to poor economic data, with a 1.6% annual decline in Q2 GDP and a 27% drop in exports, leading to expectations of significant rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [1] - In contrast, the Australian dollar is performing more optimistically, supported by a rebound in risk appetite and strong domestic data, particularly in credit and CPI, which has reduced rate cut expectations [3] Group 3 - The futures market shows a predominance of net short positions in the euro, pound, yen, and Canadian dollar, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars are net long [3] - Notably, there was a directional shift in Australian dollar positions last week, with significant changes exceeding 20% in the holdings of the pound, yen, and New Zealand dollar [3] - A US multinational company has implemented a risk management strategy by purchasing two-month European-style call options on the Canadian dollar to hedge against potential appreciation, effectively stabilizing procurement costs and controlling exchange rate risk [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Currency Concerns - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve continue to impact the dollar, leading to its decline following Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook [1] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that these concerns have prompted investors to factor in faster rate cuts and higher inflation [1] Group 2: Commodity Currencies and Economic Policies - Goldman Sachs indicated that while the dollar may weaken, caution is advised when pursuing commodity currencies like the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars, which have shown relative weakness [2] - The underperformance of these currencies is attributed to domestic policy shifts and declining terminal rate pricing in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada [2] Group 3: UK Monetary Policy - Pantheon Macroeconomics analysts expect the Bank of England to slow its quantitative tightening to £700 billion from the current £1 trillion within the next 12 months [2] - This adjustment reflects growing concerns over the impact of quantitative tightening on the UK government bond market [2] Group 4: France's Fiscal Situation - Despite France's poor public finance situation, it is unlikely to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund, with potential reliance on the European Stability Mechanism or European Central Bank instead [3] - The yield spread between French and German bonds has widened, reaching 82 basis points, indicating increased risk due to political tensions [3] Group 5: South Korea's Inflation Outlook - South Korea's inflation may have eased in August, allowing the central bank to consider further policy easing to support economic growth [4] - Analysts predict the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise by 1.9% year-on-year, down from 2.1% in July, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2% [4]