新华财经纽约11月25日电美元指数25日下跌。 1美元兑换155.83日元，低于前一交易日的156.74日元；1美元兑换0.8064瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.8077瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.4092加元，低于前一交易日的1.4108加元；1美元兑换9.5181瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.5449瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.48%，在汇市尾市收于99.664。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1584美元，高于前一交易日的1.1528美元；1英镑兑换1.3213美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3109美元。 ...

周二亚洲早盘，黄金走弱延续至4030美元附近，市场对12月降息的押注明显降温，使美元连续反弹，从 而拖累金价。随着美国政府重启后数据逐步恢复，投资者正将注意力集中在本周四的延迟版9月非农报 告，该数据将为美国增长动能与美联储未来路径提供关键线索。目前外汇与商品市场呈现情绪分化：美 元因政策趋紧与外部政治不确定性而保持韧性，而风险资产整体偏谨慎整理。 • 美联储降息预期快速降温，美元短线或继续保持相对强势； • 本周关注美联储会议纪要与周四非农数据，这两项将决定黄金与美元是否出现方向性突破； • 在关键数据公布前，市场更倾向维持区间波动，建议保持仓位灵活与风险控制。 黄金受美元走强与降息预期降温影响继续承压，短线弱势结构仍未扭转。本周的非农将成为影响市场预 期与政策定价的关键节点，或决定黄金能否摆脱4030区域的压制。美元依旧维持主导地位，短期格局仍 呈现"美元强、黄金弱"的结构化走势。 麦格理最新观点显示，市场已明显降低年底降息的概率，美元OIS显示12月降息可能性跌破50%，意味 着维持利率不变逐渐成为主流预期。支撑美元回升的因素包括：美联储官员持续释放偏鹰信号；多项追 踪工具指向三、四季度美国实际增速均在 ...

周一（11月17日）纽约尾盘，美元兑日元涨0.43%，报155.21日元，日内交投区间为154.42-155.30日 元。欧元兑日元涨0.14%，报179.86日元，北京时间00:45曾涨至180.02日元创历史新高；英镑兑日元涨 0.27%，报204.123日元。欧元兑美元跌0.29%，英镑兑美元跌0.16%，美元兑瑞郎涨0.30%。商品货币对 中，澳元兑美元跌0.83%，纽元兑美元跌0.56%，美元兑加元涨0.23%——22:55以来从1.4030显著拉升接 近1.4060。瑞典克朗兑美元跌0.32%，挪威克朗兑美元跌0.21%，丹麦克朗兑美元跌0.29%。波兰兹罗提 兑美元跌0.44%，匈牙利福林兑美元跌0.35%。 ...

Core Insights - Global official reserve managers are quietly reducing their reliance on the US dollar, but are not shifting towards traditional major currencies like the euro, pound, or yen [1] - According to Standard Chartered's analysis, recent IMF data shows that central banks and sovereign wealth funds are allocating part of their reserve assets to a broader category of "other currencies" rather than traditional major currencies [1] - This category includes currencies such as the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Swiss franc, and some highly liquid emerging market currencies, indicating a structural shift in how global official investors manage exchange rate risks [1] - The gradual diversification of reserves suggests a marginal weakening in global structural demand for US assets, but the lack of clear alternatives means short-term pressure on the dollar remains limited [1] - Meanwhile, the inflow of allocations towards the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and certain emerging market currencies may provide some support for these currencies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the movements of the Euro, British Pound, and other currencies against the US Dollar, indicating a mixed performance in the foreign exchange market on November 11. Currency Movements - The Euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US Dollar, reaching 1.1586, and stabilized around 1.1560 before a short-term surge at 21:21 [1] - The British Pound decreased by 0.06% against the US Dollar, trading at 1.3166, and experienced a sharp decline to a daily low of 1.3117 following the release of UK employment data at 15:00 [1] - The Euro gained 0.32% against the British Pound [1] Other Currency Pairs - The US Dollar depreciated by 0.59% against the Swiss Franc, settling at 0.8003, with a notable decline after 21:00 [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian Dollar fell by 0.11% against the US Dollar, while the New Zealand Dollar rose by 0.19% [1] - The US Dollar also saw a decrease of 0.07% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish Krona appreciated by 0.63% against the US Dollar [1] - The Norwegian Krona increased by 0.79% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krona rose by 0.25% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty gained 0.38% against the US Dollar, while the Hungarian Forint saw a slight decline of 0.05% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and other currencies on November 10th, with notable movements in commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars [1] Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar rose by 0.39% against the Japanese yen, reaching 154.02 yen, with a trading range of 153.36 to 154.25 yen throughout the day [1] - The euro increased by 0.36% against the Japanese yen, while the British pound rose by 0.56% against the same currency [1] - The euro dipped by 0.04% against the US dollar, whereas the British pound appreciated by 0.15% against the US dollar [1] - The Australian dollar gained 0.71% against the US dollar, trading at 0.6538, with a notable V-shaped movement observed [1] - The New Zealand dollar increased by 0.43% against the US dollar, while the Canadian dollar fell by 0.19% against the US dollar [1] - The Swedish krona rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krona increased by 0.43%, while the Danish krone slightly decreased by 0.03% [1] - The Polish zloty appreciated by 0.17% against the US dollar, and the Hungarian forint rose by 0.11% against the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar experienced fluctuations against the Japanese yen, with notable movements following the release of employment data and the ISM non-manufacturing index, indicating market reactions to economic indicators [1] Currency Movements - The US dollar rose by 0.29% against the Japanese yen, reaching 154.11 yen, after hitting a low of 152.96 yen earlier in the day [1] - Following the release of the US small non-farm employment data at 21:15, the dollar maintained a slight upward trend [1] - The dollar peaked at 154.36 yen after the ISM non-manufacturing index was released at 23:00 [1] Other Currency Pairs - The euro increased by 0.36% against the yen, reaching 177.08 yen [1] - The British pound rose by 0.50% against the yen, reaching 201.090 yen [1] - The euro gained 0.07% against the US dollar, while the British pound increased by 0.21% against the dollar [1] - The Swiss franc saw a slight decline of 0.01% against the dollar [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian dollar rose by 0.28% against the US dollar [1] - The New Zealand dollar increased by 0.36% against the US dollar [1] - The Canadian dollar saw a minor increase of 0.03% against the US dollar [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.17% against the US dollar [1] - The Norwegian krone rose by 0.09% against the US dollar [1] - The Danish krone increased by 0.08% against the US dollar [1] - The Polish zloty gained 0.19% against the US dollar and 0.12% against the euro [1] - The Hungarian forint appreciated by 0.45% against the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly focusing on the performance of the Euro, British Pound, and various commodity currencies against the US Dollar on November 3rd. Currency Performance - The Euro declined by 0.17% against the US Dollar, closing at 1.1522 [1] - The British Pound fell by 0.08%, ending at 1.3142 against the US Dollar [1] - The US Dollar appreciated by 0.41% against the Swiss Franc, reaching 0.8079, with a peak of 0.8092 later in the day [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian Dollar decreased by 0.13% against the US Dollar [1] - The New Zealand Dollar dropped by 0.26% against the US Dollar [1] - The US Dollar rose by 0.30% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Other Currencies - The Swedish Krona increased by 0.09% against the US Dollar [1] - The Norwegian Krona slightly decreased by 0.03% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krona fell by 0.11% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty declined by 0.12% against the US Dollar [1] - The Hungarian Forint appreciated by 0.06% against the US Dollar [1]

Core Insights - The report by Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Pfister suggests that if the Bank of Canada decides to maintain interest rates tonight, the Canadian dollar may appreciate in the short term [1] - LSEG data indicates an 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points again [1] - Pfister expresses skepticism about the market's certainty, noting that recent Canadian inflation has exceeded expectations, the labor market is volatile, and there is uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs [1] - He suggests that it may be more appropriate to consider a rate cut in December instead [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. and China have reached a preliminary consensus on a trade framework, including a temporary pause on rare earth export controls, providing a more stable negotiation basis for upcoming leader meetings [1] - Market expectations suggest that some tariffs and restrictions may ease, leading to a rise in risk assets such as stocks and crude oil [1] - The U.S. September CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month rise of 0.3%, indicating a continued trend of slowing inflation, which enhances expectations for a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve in its October meeting [1] Group 2 - The market is shifting focus towards central bank actions, with upcoming meetings from the Federal Reserve and other central banks expected to influence the direction of the dollar and global assets [1] - If Fed Chair Powell hints at a faster easing path, the dollar may continue to decline, while a contrary signal could trigger adjustments in risk assets [1] - Gold prices have retreated from recent highs due to reduced safe-haven demand and profit-taking by some bulls, with spot gold dropping to around $4,072, nearly 1.2% lower than last week's peak [1] Group 3 - The dollar index remains volatile, with the USD/JPY breaking the 153 mark, indicating a recovery in risk appetite that pressures the yen [2] - The Canadian central bank's upcoming meeting is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut to 2.25%, limiting the rebound potential of the Canadian dollar [2] - U.S. stock futures have risen by approximately 0.6%-1.1% in early European trading, driven by optimism from trade developments and rate cut expectations, suggesting further upside potential for the stock market [2] Group 4 - The market has transitioned from being driven by trade news to a phase of policy and capital dynamics, where the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's decisions and subsequent macro data will determine the sustainability of market trends [3] - Investors are advised to remain flexible in a high-volatility environment, closely monitoring capital flows and volatility changes to seize trading opportunities arising from shifts in market sentiment [3]