Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Canada, alongside commodity price movements and technical patterns in the market [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% in January, citing stagnation in domestic economic growth and slowing inflation, leading to market expectations for easing this year [1]. - Canada's GDP growth forecast for 2026 is only 1.1%, with weak domestic demand and high unemployment further suppressing the Canadian dollar [1]. - The Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes indicated a delay in interest rate cuts, emphasizing that inflation has not yet met targets, which continues to favor the US dollar [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently stable above the strong support level of 1.3600, with a clear upward channel formed by short-term moving averages [1]. - Key resistance is identified at 1.3680, with a potential upward move towards the 1.3710 peak if this level is breached; core support is at 1.3640, with 1.3600 as secondary support [1]. - Technical indicators show a continuation of bullish momentum, with MACD above the zero line and RSI in a neutral to strong range, indicating no overbought conditions [1]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - Focus is on the upcoming US initial jobless claims data, which, if strong, could boost the dollar and push the exchange rate towards the 1.3680 resistance [2]. - A rebound in oil prices could support the Canadian dollar, potentially leading to a correction in the exchange rate [2]. - The short-term outlook remains bullish for the USD/CAD exchange rate, given the ongoing divergence in monetary policies and favorable technical conditions [2].

1月26日(周一)，美元兑加元延续承压下行态势，盘中最低下探1.3677，截至发稿交投于该位置，日内跌 幅0.1679%，今开与昨收均为1.3697，最高触及1.3709。受美元指数走弱、原油价格支撑加元及美加货 币政策博弈影响，汇价短期震荡走弱，延续开年以来的区间博弈格局。 关键点位方面，下方核心支撑为1.3677日内低点，跌破后将进一步下探1.3650一线；上方阻力先看 1.3700整数关口，突破后可上看1.3750，若无法有效站上则反弹乏力，仍将回归震荡。 后续需重点关注1月28日加拿大央行议息会议，此次会议料维持利率不变，政策声明对通胀和经济的判 断将影响加元走势；同时跟踪国际原油价格波动、美国经济数据及美元指数走势，直接主导汇价短期方 向。此外，美加墨协议审查的相关动态也需持续留意，贸易情绪变化将成为重要扰动因素。 风险层面，需警惕原油价格因地缘风险降温出现回调，进而削弱加元支撑；若美国经济数据超预期走 强，推动美元指数阶段性反弹，美元兑加元或顺势回弹。短期来看，汇价大概率维持1.3650-1.3750区间 震荡，多空博弈下难现单边趋势，油价与美元强弱将成为短期走势核心推手。 美加货币政策分化形成博 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a range-bound trading pattern against the US dollar (USD) due to the Bank of Canada's policy stance, oil price volatility, and uncertainties surrounding the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review [1][2] - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating that the current rate is appropriate, which provides a foundation of support for the CAD [1] - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding future actions by the Bank of Canada, with some institutions predicting potential rate hikes due to persistent inflation, while others foresee continued economic weakness leading to rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - The US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance contrasts with the Bank of Canada's stable policy, affecting the interest rate differential between the US and Canada, which is a significant factor influencing CAD's performance [1][2] - As an energy-exporting currency, the CAD is highly correlated with oil prices; recent fluctuations in oil prices, combined with trade tensions, are suppressing demand expectations and impacting the CAD negatively [1][2] - The annual review of the USMCA is a critical risk factor for the CAD, as changes in trade agreement terms and tariff adjustments could directly impact Canadian export trade, leading to weakened fundamental support for the CAD [2] Group 3 - The CAD is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern in the short term, with strong support levels below and significant resistance above, indicating a lack of clear directional movement [2] - Key variables to monitor include Canadian inflation, employment data, and central bank policy statements, which will directly influence interest rate expectations [2] - The potential for CAD appreciation exists if oil prices rise, the Bank of Canada adopts a more hawkish tone, and trade risks diminish; conversely, CAD may face downward pressure if oil prices decline, trade tensions escalate, or economic data weakens [3]