Core Insights - The essence of cryptocurrency is belief, functioning as a financial tool that extracts hope from humanity and converts it into liquidity [1] - The price discovery of cryptocurrencies is driven by market sentiment rather than practical value, leading to a cycle of hype and subsequent corrections [2] Price Discovery - The initial phase of price discovery is dominated by speculation, with little to no actual application, leading to a rapid price increase based on community narratives [2] - Following this, a harsh correction phase eliminates weak holders and reveals the reality behind speculative investments [2] Market Dynamics - A significant downturn often marks a critical turning point, where projects lacking real demand fade away, while a few tokens survive to enter a phase of slow growth driven by actual demand [2] - The future of most tokens appears bleak as private enterprises begin to tokenize equity and raise liquidity directly on-chain, rendering most cryptocurrencies worthless [5] Psychological Manipulation - Cryptocurrencies are designed to manipulate human behavior, with token supply mechanisms controlling hope and emotional responses [6] - The true product of these projects is not the token itself but the belief it generates, targeting human emotions such as fear and desire [6] Speculation vs. Utility - Speculation drives token growth rather than practical utility, with attention being more critical than actual application or revenue [7] - Projects that fail to maintain user engagement and focus solely on price will ultimately collapse [7] Exit Liquidity - Retail investors often become exit liquidity for insiders, as they buy tokens after the initial investors have already established their positions [9] - The price discovery process is manipulated by a coordinated effort among venture capitalists, exchanges, and influencers, leaving retail investors at a disadvantage [9] Future Segmentation - The cryptocurrency landscape is splitting into regulated and unregulated sectors, with the former being government-controlled and the latter remaining raw and decentralized [10] - Only tokens tied to real applications and cash flows are likely to survive, while those lacking substance will disappear [10] Conclusion - The cryptocurrency market rewards those who can see through illusions rather than followers who chase hype [11] - The upcoming market phase will test investors' beliefs, timing, patience, and ability to discern truth amidst noise [11]

Core Viewpoint - SEC Chair Paul Atkins indicated that many types of ICOs should be classified as non-securities transactions, thus falling outside the SEC's regulatory jurisdiction [1][2][5] Group 1: Token Categories - Atkins introduced a token taxonomy categorizing the crypto industry into four general token categories, arguing that three of them—network tokens, digital collectibles, and digital tools—should not be considered securities [1][2][5] - The only category that the SEC should regulate pertains to tokenized securities, which are representations of securities already regulated by the SEC [2][5] Group 2: Regulatory Implications - Atkins' comments suggest a potential resurgence of ICOs, as most crypto tokens would likely not be regulated by the SEC, shifting oversight to the CFTC [5][6] - Tokens that are linked to decentralized blockchain networks, reference internet memes or trends, or provide practical functions like tickets or memberships could be considered non-securities [6][7] Group 3: Historical Context - ICOs gained popularity during the crypto boom of 2017 but faced regulatory scrutiny from the SEC, which took action against numerous ICO issuers for selling unregistered securities [4]

Company - SoftBank sold $5.8 billion worth of Nvidia shares, leading to a 10% drop in Nvidia's stock price [3] - Amazon's ad-supported Prime Video has seen a global audience surge to 315 million [3] - Anthropic plans to invest $50 billion in building AI infrastructure in the United States [3] - Apple stated that the reduction in developer fees did not benefit EU users [3] - The chairman of Wall Street's regulatory agency indicated that the classification of crypto tokens will be considered [3] - Reports suggest that the EU is planning a new investigation into Google regarding news agency ranking issues [3] - Former President Trump will host a dinner at the White House for JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon and other Wall Street CEOs [3] Industry - The Federal Reserve's Bostic announced retirement, effective at the end of his term in February [3] - Federal Reserve's Collins expressed a preference to maintain interest rates to curb inflation [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that it is not the time to eliminate interest payments on reserves [3] - Traders are preparing for economic data releases, increasing bets that the 10-year Treasury yield will drop below 4% in the coming weeks [3] - The traditional safe-haven status of US and European government bonds is being challenged, with capital favoring established corporate credit over sovereign debt [3] - The White House's National Economic Council director mentioned that the US is considering using Sections 301 and 122 as alternative tariff options [3] - The US Treasury Secretary hinted at a gradual change in the structure of debt issuance to meet investor demand [3] - The impact of the government shutdown is profound, extending beyond salary issues [3] - A prominent short-seller warned of the risk of hardware depreciation in AI, suggesting companies might inflate earnings as a result [3] - In the European bond market, the spread between French and German bonds has narrowed, with long-term bonds outperforming [3] - In commodities, oil prices recorded their largest drop since June, while copper prices increased and gold prices rose [3] - The New York Fed's Perli stated that the Federal Reserve will soon begin asset purchases [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the dollar remained stable as the government shutdown neared an end, while the yen declined [3] - Several reasons should make investors cautious about seemingly unstoppable US stocks [3] - In the US bond market, Treasury yields rose, and the yield curve flattened [3] - Concerns over oversupply have led to oil prices experiencing their largest drop since June [3]

Core Viewpoint - New York City Mayor Eric Adams' proposal to issue Bitcoin-backed municipal bonds faces strong opposition from City Comptroller Brad Lander, who deems the plan legally questionable and financially irresponsible [1][3] Group 1: Proposal Details - Mayor Adams announced the plan for Bitcoin-backed municipal bonds, referred to as "Bitcoin Bonds," during the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas [1][3] - The proposed bond structure suggests a 1% annual interest rate for bondholders over a 10-year period, with additional returns based on Bitcoin price appreciation [3] - The funding allocation proposes that 90% of the raised funds would be used for government expenditures, while 10% would be allocated for purchasing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve [3] Group 2: Opposition and Concerns - Comptroller Lander criticized the proposal, stating that cryptocurrencies are too volatile to fund essential city services such as infrastructure, affordable housing, or schools [1] - Lander emphasized that the issuance of cryptocurrency-related debt instruments would introduce new risks and undermine investor confidence [1] - He indicated that during his tenure, he would not permit the issuance of any debt related to cryptocurrencies [1]