Bitcoin’s shaky October extended into the first week of November, as the broader outlook for crypto appears to be souring. On Tuesday, Bitcoin’s price dipped about 21% since its all-time high last month to roughly $99,000, while other cryptocurrencies fell even more sharply. And while Bitcoin has since clawed back over the key psychological $100,000 mark, some think the crypto sector’s remarkable run may be over for the time being. The declines for Bitcoin and for other cryptocurrencies have been especial ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant downturn, with over $140 billion in market value evaporating, as major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum hit new lows [1][4]. Market Performance - Bitcoin has dropped to approximately $108,880.01, down 2.22%, while Ethereum is at $3,882.97, down 2.99% [2][4]. - The overall market decline has led to nearly 290,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours, totaling over $882 million, with Ethereum investors facing the largest liquidation amounts [2][3]. Company Impact - Several publicly traded companies holding cryptocurrencies, such as MicroStrategy (MSTR.O) and Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA.O), saw their stock prices drop significantly, with declines of about 7% and 9% respectively [3][4]. - Despite a brief recovery in stock prices after the market opened, both companies experienced a decline again, with losses remaining under 1% at the time of reporting [3]. Investor Behavior - Since the beginning of the week, investors have withdrawn nearly $300 million from U.S.-listed Ethereum ETFs, indicating a shift in market sentiment [4]. - The recent downturn has been attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, negative news, and technical indicators, leading to a lack of support for price recovery [4][5]. Technical Analysis - Ethereum's price has seen a significant increase from $1,613 to $4,886 since April, but has faced a 15% decline in September [5]. - Analysts warn that if Ethereum falls below $3,800, it could trigger further liquidation, despite a decrease in exchange supply indicating long-term holding behavior [5]. Derivatives Market - Over $17 billion in Bitcoin and approximately $5.3 billion in Ethereum open contracts are set to expire, which could further influence market volatility [6].

Core Insights - The global cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility on September 23, leading to a large-scale liquidation of investors, with a total of 406,200 investors being forced to close their positions, resulting in a liquidation amount of $1.678 billion [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Dogecoin (DOGE) saw substantial declines during this market adjustment [3] - Long positions were the primary contributors to the liquidations, incurring losses of $1.595 billion, which accounted for the majority of the total liquidation amount; short positions also faced losses of $83.435 million [3] - Ethereum-related positions had the highest liquidation amount at $477 million, followed by Bitcoin with $282 million [3] Group 2: Market Analysis - The recent downturn was not triggered by any specific external events or negative policy changes, but rather resulted from a technical correction and a resonance of market sentiment [3] - Bitcoin's price tested a critical support level of $111,900, which has been a significant psychological barrier and technical reference point over the past few months [3] - After reaching this support level, there were signs of price stabilization, with some investors taking the opportunity to buy at lower prices [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the increased volatility in the short term, some institutions believe that this adjustment is a normal market behavior [3] - Analysts noted that while Bitcoin is facing substantial selling pressure, there is a lack of substantial negative catalysts, indicating that the overall market correction reflects a concentrated clearing of leveraged positions [3] - With buying support at the critical support level, the market is expected to gradually stabilize [3]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn from July 15 to 16, with Bitcoin's price dropping from a historical high of $123,100 to $116,300, marking a daily decline of over 5% [1] - Major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin also saw declines ranging from 4% to 8% [1] - The crash resulted in a surge of liquidations, with 135,800 individuals affected and a total liquidation amount of $493 million (approximately 3.54 billion RMB), with nearly 80% of losses coming from long positions [1] Bitcoin Market Dynamics - On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin's exchange supply has fallen to a historical low of 14.5%, while the number of whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC has increased to 2,135, suggesting sustained confidence among long-term holders [3] - The recent price correction is viewed as a standard adjustment following a market overheating, with the next key support level for Bitcoin identified at $114,000, a price point that previously triggered significant short covering [3] - Over the past three months, Bitcoin has seen an increase of over 40% due to institutional inflows, with a notable single-day surge of 6.8% on July 14 [3] Market Influences - The release of the U.S. June CPI data coincided with the market crash, leading investors to preemptively withdraw from risk assets. The CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [4] - Concerns about potential inflation rebound have led to fears that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, with analysts noting that cryptocurrencies are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes [4] Regulatory Environment - Matrixport has warned of tightening U.S. regulatory policies, with the SEC potentially expanding its enforcement on "tokenized securities," which could lead to prolonged volatility in risk assets [5] - Despite the challenges, some institutions maintain confidence in Bitcoin's price trajectory, with Bernstein reiterating a year-end target of $150,000 for Bitcoin, emphasizing that the current cycle is institutionally driven, contrasting with the retail-driven bubble of 2017 [5]