1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different varieties: - **Bullish**: Cotton (★★), indicating a relatively strong bullish outlook [1]. - **Neutral with a Bullish Bias**: Soybean Meal (★), suggesting a slightly bullish trend [1]. - **Neutral with a Bearish Bias**: Rapeseed Meal (★), Palm Oil (★), and Soybean Oil (★), indicating a neutral stance with a slight bearish tendency [1]. - **Bearish**: Red Dates (★), and Live Pigs (★★), showing a bearish outlook [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to have a bullish - oscillating trend. The market has concerns about South American rainfall and US biodiesel policies. Although it rose significantly recently, the short - term boost may not last [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Forecasted to have a short - term oscillating trend. It is expected to follow the soybean meal's trend due to limited spot supply and the pending Canadian rapeseed anti - dumping ruling [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Predicted to have an oscillating and consolidating trend. Weak exports from Malaysia and high domestic purchases in February may suppress the domestic market. Attention should be paid to future export and production data [1][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: Anticipated to have an oscillating and consolidating trend. The upcoming US biodiesel policy may affect the market. Domestic soybean imports are in a trough, and inventory is decreasing, but the spot trade is average [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Expected to have a range - bound oscillating trend. Consumption has weakened after the Spring Festival, and supply has improved. Attention should be paid to the basis support and the Canadian rapeseed anti - dumping ruling [1]. - **Cotton**: Forecasted to have a bullish - oscillating trend. Global production is expected to decrease, and domestic consumption is expected to increase during the "Golden March and Silver April" period. Short - term callback risks should be noted, and a long - term bullish view is maintained [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Predicted to be under pressure. After the Spring Festival, the market is in a weak demand period, and high inventory may suppress the price. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and holiday consumption [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Expected to have a bearish - oscillating trend. Supply is high due to slow reduction of breeding sows, and demand is weak in the post - Spring Festival period. Short - term contracts may be under pressure, but long - term contracts may have short - term long - position opportunities if there is a significant callback [1][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,831 yuan/ton, up 1.80% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,192.57 yuan/ton, up 0.78% [2]. - **Market Factors**: Future rainfall in Argentina is expected to be below normal, and excessive rainfall in Brazil has affected the harvest progress and quality. The concern about US tariffs has cooled, and the US market has recovered. The boost from port clearance is limited [4]. - **Industry Outlook**: CoBank predicts that the US soybean planting area will reach 86 million acres in 2026, up from 81 million acres in 2025 [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,312 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,607.89 yuan/ton, up 0.53% [5]. - **Market Factors**: After the Spring Festival, the market has gradually resumed work, but the spot supply is tight, and most imported rapeseed meal is for distant - month contracts. The inventory is low, and the Canadian rapeseed anti - dumping ruling is pending [7]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8,848 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,860 yuan/ton, down 0.23% [8]. - **Market Factors**: Malaysian palm oil exports in February were weak, and domestic purchases in February were high, which may suppress the domestic market. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and future Malaysian export and production data [9]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2605) closed at 15,380 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from the previous day. The US cotton main - continuous contract was at 65.56 cents/pound, up 0.64% [10]. - **Market Factors**: The USDA predicts a decrease in global cotton production in 2026/27. US cotton exports have reached a new high this year. In China, production is expected to decrease, and consumption is expected to increase during the "Golden March and Silver April" period [11][12][13]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2605) closed at 8,910 yuan/ton, up 0.73% from the previous day. The spot prices in different regions were generally stable [14]. - **Market Factors**: After the Spring Festival, the market is in a weak demand period, and inventory is high. The supply is sufficient, and demand is weak, so the price is under pressure [15]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (lh2605) closed at 11,465 yuan/ton, up 1.78% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 10,770 yuan/ton, down 1.46% [16]. - **Market Factors**: The supply of live pigs is high due to slow reduction of breeding sows, and demand is weak in the post - Spring Festival period. The slaughter end may put pressure on prices [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - **Short - term shock**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have short - term shock trends. For soybean meal, the increase in US soybean planting area implies an increase in global soybean supply, but the optimistic expectation of US biodiesel policy restricts price adjustment. Rapeseed meal is expected to follow the trend of soybean meal due to low inventory and the pending anti - dumping final ruling of Canadian rapeseed [1][4][7]. - **Shock consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are in a state of shock consolidation. Palm oil is under pressure from weak Malaysian export data and high domestic purchases in February, while soybean oil is influenced by the upcoming US biodiesel policy and the current de - stocking state of domestic inventory [1][8][9]. - **Range shock**: Rapeseed oil is expected to have a large - range shock in the short term, affected by post - holiday consumption and Sino - Canadian trade [1]. - **Shock on the strong side**: Cotton is on a shock - on - the - strong - side trend. The expected reduction in global cotton production by USDA and the rebound of US cotton exports contribute to this. However, short - term callback risks should be noted [1][11][13]. - **Under pressure**: Jujube is under pressure due to high inventory and weak post - holiday consumption. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low and potential mid - term repair opportunities [1][14][15]. - **Shock on the weak side**: The pig market is expected to be on a shock - on - the - weak - side trend. The slow reduction of sow inventory and the post - holiday consumption off - season lead to pressure on the market, but long - term contracts can be considered for phased long positions if there is a significant callback [1][16][18]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Production and Weather**: Brazil's soybean production is up, but high rainfall slows down the harvest progress and affects quality. Argentina's crops have improved due to rainfall, but future rainfall will still be below normal. The US is expected to increase soybean planting area by 4.4% to 85 million acres in the new season, increasing global supply [1][3][4]. - **Market Situation**: The domestic soybean meal opened steadily. The main contract price has fallen to a historical low. Due to the lack of clear long - short guidance, it is expected to remain in short - term shock. Attention should be paid to Argentina's rainfall and the final US biodiesel policy in early March [1][4]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,781 yuan/ton, down 0.68% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,167.71 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Policy**: Low inventory restricts the downward space of rapeseed meal. The final anti - dumping ruling of Canadian rapeseed on March 9 is yet to be announced. In the off - season of consumption, it is expected to follow the trend of soybean meal [1][7]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,290 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,594.21 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day [5]. Palm Oil - **Export and Inventory**: Malaysian palm oil export data is weak, and domestic purchases in February are high, which suppresses the domestic market. It is short - term weak. Attention should be paid to the subsequent export and production data of the Malaysian market [1][8][9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8,824 yuan/ton, up 1.45% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,880 yuan/ton, up 1.72% from the previous day [8]. Cotton - **Global and Domestic Production**: USDA expects a reduction in global cotton production in 2026/27. In China, due to a decline in both planting area and yield, the production in 2026/27 is also expected to decrease. After the holiday, the market has exceeded expectations under the conditions of external cotton rebound and "Golden March and Silver April" consumption expectations [1][11][13]. - **Price Data**: The price of the main contract CF2605 was 15,285 yuan/ton, up 3.70% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 16,070 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day [10]. Jujube - **Supply and Demand**: The spot price is stable, but the inventory is high, and the post - holiday consumption is weak. The market trading sentiment is cautious, and the volume is weak. In the short term, the market is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low and potential mid - term repair opportunities [1][14][15]. - **Price Data**: The price of the main contract CJ2605 was 8,845 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Kashgar general - grade jujube was 6 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Pig - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has a high base of pig supply due to the slow reduction of sow inventory. After the Spring Festival, the market enters the consumption off - season, and the slaughtering end will face price pressure. The short - term and long - term contracts are under pressure, but long - term contracts can be considered for phased long positions if there is a significant callback [1][16][18]. - **Price Data**: The price of the main contract LH2605 was 11,265 yuan/ton, down 2.04% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 11,260 yuan/ton, down 3.43% from the previous day [16].