Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it will fluctuate strongly [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and they will have wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: They will have wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - **Coke**: A round of price increase has started, and it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it will stabilize with fluctuations [2][21]. - **Log**: The main contract is switching, and it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][24]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 764.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton (0.07%). The positions increased by 1,947 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose 4.0 yuan/ton to 845.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (1.10%); Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,273 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.24%). Spot prices in various regions generally increased [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production and inventory data in late June 2025 were released. Vietnam announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel, excluding coil products wider than 1.88m [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon - **Fundamentals**: Silicon ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,460 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan/ton; Manganese ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,746 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in some regions increased [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ghana plans to build a manganese refinery, and there are price changes in silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in the market [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal JM2509 closed at 913 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.78%); Coke J2509 closed at 1,519.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton (1.50%). Spot prices of some coking coal and coke remained stable [18]. - **Price and Position**: There are price quotes for coking coal in northern ports, and position changes in the top 20 members of DCE [18][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke, 1 for coking coal [20]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Performance**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: There are price quotes for steam coal in southern ports and domestic origins, and no position changes in the top 20 members of ZCE [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [23]. Log - **Fundamentals**: The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. There are price and position data for different contracts, and price quotes for various log products in the spot market [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US president extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：近期全国安全生产月以及环保要求短期对煤矿生产造成一定影响。据悉，5 月底以来， 山西、内蒙煤矿事故有所增多，主产区安监边际收紧，但对整体产量影响较为有限。进口方面， 2025 年 5 月，全国进口煤及褐煤 3604.01 万吨，环比下降 4.7%。动力煤产量、进口量均开始边 际收紧。需求端，数据显示，截至 6 月 5 日，沿海 8 省电厂煤炭日耗为 171.8 万吨，周环比增 0.7 万吨/天；内陆 17 省电厂煤炭日耗为 313.6 ...