Market Overview - US stocks experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq Composite falling approximately 2%, the S&P 500 down 1.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreasing nearly 1%, equating to a loss of almost 500 points [1] Employment Data - The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report indicated that October saw the highest number of layoff announcements since 2003, raising concerns about the labor market's health amid a government data blackout due to a federal shutdown [2] Technology Sector - Investors are evaluating whether technology valuations are excessively high, as evidenced by Qualcomm's strong earnings and positive guidance, yet its stock dropped over 4%. Other major chip manufacturers, including Nvidia and AMD, also saw declines of over 4% and 7%, respectively [3] Tesla Developments - Tesla's shareholder meeting is under scrutiny, particularly regarding Elon Musk's proposed trillion-dollar pay package, which could influence his position as CEO if rejected. Tesla shares fell nearly 5% on the day [4] Trade Policy Implications - The market reacted to skepticism from Supreme Court justices regarding the legality of Trump's trade tariffs, which could significantly affect international trade and domestic spending if ruled against. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed optimism about the tariffs [5] Earnings Reports - Notable earnings reports from Warner Bros. Discovery, Airbnb, and Moderna were highlighted as key events in the market on Thursday [5]

今日周一（11月3日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3962.33美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3998.88美元/盎司，跌幅0.05%，最高上探至4003.11美元/盎司，最低触及3962.33美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 所幸的是，下周将有大量美国私营部门数据公布。其中，以往常被忽视的JOLTS职位空缺和Challenger 裁员数据此次将受到应有的重视。不过，市场的目光无疑会聚焦于两份ISM调查以及ADP就业报告上。 若下周公布的一系列数据表现疲软，将重新点燃市场对12月降息的预期。这些数据将比以往更受密切关 注，以便从中探寻劳动力市场的健康状况以及通胀压力的迹象。 市场预期10月ISM制造业指数有望重返50荣枯线之上，这可能是自2025年2月以来的首次扩张。五大地 区联储调查中已有四份显示制造业有所改善。服务业方面，预计ISM指数将小幅扩张至50.4，但由于政 府停摆的影响，该指数跌入收缩区间的风险显著增加。 摘要今日周一（11月3日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3962.33美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新 报3998.88美元/盎司，跌幅0.05%，最高上探至4003.1 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of the U.S. government shutdown and the election of a new leader in Japan on global markets, particularly focusing on precious metals, currencies, and economic policies. Key Points and Arguments U.S. Government Shutdown - The shutdown has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices surpassing $3,900 and silver reaching a 14-year high, indicating a decline in investor risk appetite [1][2][3] - The shutdown may delay the release of CPI data, which could hinder the Federal Reserve's decision-making at the upcoming FOMC meeting, increasing policy uncertainty [1][4] - Revenal Lab estimates that the initial non-farm payroll figure is expected to be 60,000, exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus of 50,000, but ADP data showed a decline of 23,000, necessitating close monitoring of future non-farm data adjustments [1][4] - Historical data suggests that the actual impact of government shutdowns on GDP is limited, as seen during the 2018-2019 shutdown [4] Japanese Political Developments - The election of Kishi Sanae as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party continues the "Abenomics" approach, advocating for expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which may lead to a depreciation of the yen and rising long-term interest rates in Japan [3][5] - Kishi's policies could increase geopolitical uncertainty and enhance global debt sustainability concerns, prompting central banks to adopt more accommodative stances, benefiting precious metals and commodities [3][5] - The capital markets have already reacted, with the Nikkei index reaching historical highs and the yen depreciating to around 150 [5] Market Reactions - Overall, equity assets and commodities have seen upward trends, while the U.S. bond market remains volatile. Non-U.S. currencies and oil prices have declined, primarily due to OPEC's production increases [2] - The probability of the U.S. government shutdown lasting until October 15 is estimated at around 70%, which could exacerbate economic downturn risks and concerns over the credibility of the U.S. dollar [4] Other Important Insights - The combination of the U.S. government shutdown and Japan's political changes is likely to create a complex environment for investors, necessitating careful monitoring of economic indicators and market sentiment [1][3][5] - The potential for further layoffs in the U.S. federal workforce could add pressure to the labor market and raise concerns about the dollar's stability [4]