美国股指期货在圣诞假期前夕徘徊于历史高位附近，股市季节性走强的时期即将开始。黄金价格攀升至 每盎司4500美元以上。 美国股指期货在圣诞假期前夕徘徊于历史高位附近，股市季节性走强的时期即将开始。黄金价格攀升至 每盎司4500美元以上。 美国三大股指期货基本持平。此前科技股推动标普500指数创下历史新高。假期交易时间缩短，预计周 三交投清淡。随着圣诞行情拉开序幕，交易员们对年底收官持乐观态度，可能使美国基准股指今年约 17%的涨幅进一步扩大。 美国经济持续超预期表现令投资者乐观，支撑了来年的盈利前景。与此同时，货币市场仍预期美联储 2026年至少降息两次，这一背景可能提振更广泛的股票板块，尽管对领涨科技股估值的担忧依然存在。 Swissquote分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya写道："近期行情表明圣诞老人或许仍会如约而至。但现实可能很快 会占据上风，科技市场部分板块看上去稍显不稳，明年财报季的焦点将不再是亮眼的数字，而是关注收 入的实际来源。" 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 美国三大股指期货基本持平。此前科技股推动标普500指数创下历史新高。假期交易时间缩短，预计周 三交投清淡。随着圣诞行情拉 ...

德意志银行在上周进行的一项调查，识别了投资者对2026年最为担忧的风险。在440位资产经理的反馈 中，最令人意外的或许不是他们担心的事，而是他们不担心的事。 尽管近几年才发生过且严重冲击金融市场，但投资者并不担忧包括全球大流行病、地缘政治爆发、全球贸 易战、法国爆发重大政治或金融危机等风险。 德意志银行的年度民调由其全球经济与专题研究主管Jim Reid主持，结果非常清晰地表明了一点："AI/科 技泡沫风险压倒了一切"。事实上，Reid进一步指出，"在对来年最大风险的押注中，我们从未见过如此遥 遥领先的选项。" 2026年市场面临的最大风险调查结果 超过半数的受访者将其列为2026年的最大担忧，紧随其后的是担心新任美联储主席是否会激进降息并引发 市场动荡，或者私募资本领域是否正在酝酿危机，后两者的得票率几乎相当。 债券收益率升幅超过预期以及各国央行因粘性通胀而意外加息分别吸引了21%和15%的投票，但这或许可 以被解读为本质上是同一种风险，两者相加的权重会更加引人注目。 Reid提出了一个有趣的观点，尽管对泡沫风险的感知肯定处于高位，但它低于9月份的水平，也低于2021 年疫情后流动性泛滥带动万物普涨时期的水 ...

在投资者偏好方面，约有71%的受访者表示，他们更愿意将退休金投资于美国股市的其他部分，而 非"七巨头"，这种偏好自2024年7月以来大致保持稳定。展望2026年，受访者对市场回报的预期较为审 慎，预计美股七巨头明年平均回报率约为7%，标普500 指数平均涨幅接近7%，这是该调查过去4年来录 得的最强劲展望。 格隆汇12月18日｜根据德意志银行对全球投资者和市场参与者进行的最新全球市场调查，与人工智能 (AI)相关的估值风险，已成为2026年市场稳定性面临的最大单一威胁。有高达57%的受访者认为，由于 对 AI的热情消退导致科技股估值暴跌，是明年市场面临的最大风险。受访者提出的第二大担忧是新任 美联储主席可能推动激进降息，并引发市场动荡的风险。紧随其后的是对私人资本市场危机的担忧，以 及国债收益率可能超出预期上升的可能性。此外，由于顽固的通膨迫使央行意外加息的风险排名第五。 ...

美联储公布政策决议后掀起的市场狂欢在数小时内戛然而止，甲骨文公司股价暴跌重新引发了投资者对 科技股估值的担忧。如今，投资者不得不思考，圣诞行情是否还能如期而至。 摩根士丹利资本国际全球所有国家指数曾一度逼近历史峰值，但随后掉头下行；黄金也终结了原本可能 实现的三连涨走势。此前的市场上涨，源于美联储最新降息举措以及美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔对美国 经济的乐观评估所点燃的市场热情。 甲骨文因营收不及市场预期且支出增加，其股价大幅下挫，这重新引发了市场对科技股市盈率过高的担 忧，此前的乐观情绪也随之消散。受此影响，纳斯达克期货一度暴跌 1.6%，10 年期美国国债收益率也 一度下行 3 个基点。 不过，部分市场观察人士目前仍保持淡定。 斯莱特斯通财富公司首席市场策略师肯尼・波尔卡里在甲骨文发布业绩后表示："我不认为这是煤矿里 的金丝雀（意指危机预警信号）。" 他还称，考虑到今年科技股的大涨，市场出现这样的反应 "并不意 外"。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：郭明煜 尽管近几周市场因预期美联储将进一步放宽货币政策而短暂恢复了风险偏好，但此次市场情绪的快速逆 转 ...

纳斯达克中国金龙指数微涨0.08%，百度、名创优品涨超3%，小鹏汽车、新东方、晶科能源涨超2%， 网易跌超2%。国际金价承压，现货黄金跌破4200美元/盎司。 短期焦点集中于美联储12月利率决议，市场降息预期概率升至87.3%。若释放鸽派信号或缓解流动性担 忧，关注科技股估值与政策路径分歧。 隔夜美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌幅0.45%，纳指与标普500指数分别下跌0.14%和0.35%。受美联储 议息会议前观望情绪影响，科技股走势分化，特斯拉因评级下调跌超3%，迈威尔科技因丢失亚马逊AI 芯片订单重挫近7%。 芯片产业表现活跃，费城半导体指数涨1.1%，美光科技涨超4%，艾马克技术、安森美半导体涨超3%， 博通、台积电等涨超2%。 相关ETF： 全球科技龙头：纳斯达克ETF(513300)； 美股核心宽基：标普ETF(159655)。 ...

沃伦.巴菲特常说，股市短期是投票机，长期则是称重机。这位即将卸任的伯克希尔.哈撒韦首席执行官 也曾声称自己不懂科技股。然而，他的这句格言却能很好地解释当前人工智能热潮中，苹果 (AAPL.US)、微软(MSFT.US)、Alphabet(GOOGL.US)、Meta Platforms(META.US)和亚马逊(AMZN.US) 这几家公司的估值现象。 关于哪家科技巨头在AI领域领先的叙事似乎每月都在变化。近期发布Gemini3后，Alphabet目前处于上 升势头。这款基于自研芯片训练的模型在基准测试中令观察者惊叹。几个月前，扎克伯格领导的Meta 则通过激进抢夺人才吸引了眼球。可以说，至少在非正式的AI热度排行榜上，唯一不变的是苹果始终 落后。这家市值4.2万亿美元的iPhone制造商，其CEO蒂姆.库克并非大型语言模型的前沿开发者，该公 司也基本避开了行业资本密集型的数据中心建设。 在市场沉浸于AI热潮之际，从逻辑上讲，库克的超然立场可能导致其估值受损。但事实上，情况恰恰 相反。根据数据，这家位于加州库比蒂诺的集团基于2026年预期收益的市盈率为34倍，这比五大巨头中 估值次高的亚马逊高出15%，后者的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has become the center of market turmoil following allegations of financial discrepancies in its recent earnings report, raising concerns about potential fraud and the sustainability of the tech stock bubble [1][2]. Group 1: Allegations Against Nvidia - A social media post by researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera claimed that Nvidia's financial data showed "serious contradictions," including accounts receivable of $33.4 billion, a 89% increase, and inventory rising 32% to $19.8 billion, contradicting claims of chip shortages [1][2]. - The report also highlighted a cash conversion rate of only 75%, significantly below the semiconductor industry standard, suggesting potential fraud detected by AI algorithms [1]. - An analysis report countered these claims, arguing that the increase in accounts receivable and inventory is typical for a rapidly expanding tech company and does not indicate fraudulent revenue [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Broader Implications - The AI industry's circular trading network, valued at $610 billion, has raised doubts about the actual demand for AI applications, as cash flow has not completed a full cycle due to insufficient profitable AI applications [2]. - Despite the allegations, experts believe that Nvidia's stock price fluctuations are common during earnings season and do not indicate fraud [2]. - Market sentiment has been affected by concerns over the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, with recent comments from Fed officials causing fluctuations in market expectations regarding rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Future Outlook - Many top investment firms have recently reduced their holdings in high-priced tech stocks like Nvidia, indicating a shift in investment strategy [3]. - Analysts suggest that the high valuations of AI-related stocks may be driven by overly optimistic expectations for long-term profitability, which could lead to a correction in the tech sector [4]. - Despite the current turmoil, the long-term development trend of AI remains positive, with expectations that capital investments will eventually balance with returns as AI applications continue to evolve [5].

Core Viewpoint - Global markets experienced widespread sell-offs, with significant declines in U.S. stock futures and cryptocurrencies, driven by concerns over interest rate outlook and technology stock valuations [1]. Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 3.2%, marking its largest single-day drop since April, amid worries over government spending and geopolitical factors [1]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea dropped by 3.32%, led by declines in semiconductor stocks [2]. - A-shares also saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the ChiNext Index down 1.1%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%. The Taiwan Weighted Index fell by 2.5% [3]. - U.S. stock futures showed significant declines, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down over 1%, Dow futures down 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.7% [4]. Interest Rate and Commodity Impact - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December dropped to 42.9%, leading to a decrease in optimistic sentiment towards gold, which fell below the $4,000 mark [1][5]. - Bitcoin experienced intensified selling pressure, dropping to a low of $89,253 per coin, with traders betting on further declines to $85,000 and even $80,000 [5][13].

Core Market Trends - The Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 1%, Dow futures decreased by 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.7% [2] - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a decline of over 3%, while the TOPIX index fell by 2.4% [2] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index decreased by 2% to 221.28 points, marking its first drop below the 50-day moving average since April [2] - Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 mark, and Ethereum dropped below $3,000 [2] Japanese Market Dynamics - The Nikkei 225 index closed at 48,908.25, down 1,415.66 points or 2.81%, while the TOPIX index was at 3,267.32, down 80.21 points or 2.40% [3] - The Japanese yen fell to 155.37 against the US dollar, the lowest since January, and the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to 1.754%, the highest since June 2008 [3][4] - Concerns over government spending and geopolitical factors have led to a sell-off in Japan's stock, bond, and currency markets [4] Investor Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Nvidia earnings report and the September employment report for insights into the tech sector's valuation and Federal Reserve policy direction [5] - Analysts indicate that the current sell-off reflects ongoing concerns about interest rate prospects and tech stock valuations [5] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month is currently priced at about 40% [6] Technical Analysis and Market Signals - Analysts warn that technical indicators suggest a potential 10% correction risk for US stocks, with the S&P 500 down 3.2% since its record high on October 28 [7] - The Nasdaq Composite index is showing weak internal signals, with more stocks hitting 52-week lows than those reaching new highs [8] - Bitcoin's decline has erased all gains for 2025, significantly impacting the sentiment in the digital asset market [8]

Core Insights - The U.S. government ended its "shutdown," which boosted market risk appetite, but uncertainty regarding U.S. monetary policy has increased [1] - Concerns over the overvaluation of technology stocks led to a significant decline in major U.S. stock indices, marking the worst single-day performance in over a month [1] Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices had mixed results over the week: the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.45%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.34%, and the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.08% [1]