国际货币基金组织（IMF）表示，围绕美国大范围关税的动荡，可能削弱原本"表现强劲"的经济。 总部位于华盛顿的该机构在周三发布的最新年度评估摘要中称，贸易政策的不确定性，可能对经济活动 造成超出预期的拖累。国际货币基金组织还表示，进口税未必会像预期那样大规模向消费者端传导。 美国总统特朗普去年实施了约一个世纪以来最高水平的关税，称此举将促使企业加大在美国的投资。上 周，其中许多关税被最高法院裁定无效，迫使政府寻求其他对进口征税的法律依据。本周二，一项统一 征收的10％新税率已正式生效，特朗普表示将把税率提高至15％。 这些变化发生在IMF完成所谓《第四条磋商》之后。该磋商是对美国经济与金融形势的评估。IMF总裁 克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃（Kristalina Georgieva）在周三晚些时候的新闻发布会上表示，由于去年的 政府停摆，相关报告的发布被推迟。 格奥尔基耶娃指出，美国劳动力生产率的快速提升，是经济前景中的一个积极信号。但IMF同时提到， 更为严格的移民政策可能对劳动力供给造成压力，并抑制经济增长。报告称： "更严格的边境执法以及遣返人数的增加，预计将在未来几年缩小外籍出生劳动力规模，导 致就业增长 ...

Group 1 - The rebound in U.S. labor productivity in Q2, reported at 2.4%, is better than the market expectation of 2% and contrasts sharply with the revised -1.8% in Q1, which helps mitigate wage-related inflation pressures [1] - Non-farm unit labor costs in the U.S. increased by 1.6% in Q2, slightly better than the expected 1.5%, and significantly lower than the 6.6% increase in Q1, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures from labor costs [1] - Companies are likely to seek new technologies and upgrade equipment to enhance employee efficiency, which can help alleviate inflationary pressures from rising wages and higher import tariffs [1] Group 2 - The permanent retention of tax cuts and investment incentives in the recently signed budget by President Trump may encourage companies to increase capital expenditures [3] - Wage growth indicators are showing a slowdown, supporting the view that the labor market is no longer a source of inflationary pressure, with average hourly earnings growing at an annualized rate of 4% and inflation-adjusted employee compensation increasing by 2.3% [3] - Some industries significantly affected by Trump's immigration policies are experiencing wage increases as employers may be forced to raise wages to compensate for reduced labor supply [3]