居民健康意识提升，饮用水行业稳步扩容 国投证券发布研报称，华润饮料(02460)是纯净水龙头企业，怡宝作为头部品牌行业地位稳固。作为刚 需产品，包装水从长期来看需求较为稳定，同时公司饮料业务覆盖茶饮、果汁、运动功能三大热门类 别，持续推进包装水、饮料双轮驱动战略，长期竞争力较强。参考可比公司25年平均估值，给予买入- A投资评级，对应22x，6个月目标价13.86元人民币。(汇率：1CNY=1.1004HKD)。 投资建议：下半年公司计划增设2家工厂，其中自建的浙江工厂预计于Q4投产，生产效率有望得到提 升。该行预计公司2025年-2027年的收入增速分别为-11.97%、6.61%、8.64%，净利润的增速分别 为-7.10%、9.32%、5.49%。25年可比公司估值均值为21.49X。 国投证券主要观点如下： 风险提示：需求复苏不及预期风险，新品拓展不及预期风险，行业竞争加剧风险。 包装水是人们日常生活中的刚需产品，随着我国居民健康意识提升，中大规格瓶装水及桶装水在家庭和 户外出行等场景中的使用逐渐增加，小规格瓶装水凭借其灵活的优势，在体育运动等场景中也获得更加 广泛使用。据欧睿统计，24年我国瓶装水市 ...

公司25H1实现营业收入62.06亿元，同比-18.52%；实现归母净利润8.05亿元，同比-28.63%；实现扣非 归母净利润7.69亿元，同比-31.56%。分产品看，25H1包装饮用水/饮料分别实现营收52.5/9.6亿元，同 比-23.1%/+21.28%。其中，小规格瓶装水/中大规格瓶装水/桶装水分别实现营收31.9/18.3/2.3亿元，同 比-26.2%/-19.4%/-1.5%。饮料为公司打造的第二曲线，25H1共推出14款新品SKU，收入实现稳定增 长，营收占比提升至15.4%。渠道方面，公司持续提高终端网点覆盖率，目前拥有传统、KA、特通、 教育、休闲娱乐、电商、餐饮等渠道类型，并作为国家队官方饮用产品与国际体育赛事深度捆绑提高品 牌知名度。 投资建议：下半年公司计划增设2家工厂，其中自建的浙江工厂预计于Q4投产，生产效率有望得到提 升。该行预计公司2025年-2027年的收入增速分别为-11.97%、6.61%、8.64%，净利润的增速分别 为-7.10%、9.32%、5.49%。25年可比公司估值均值为21.49X。 风险提示：需求复苏不及预期风险，新品拓展不及预期风险，行业竞争加剧风 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) to "Strong Buy" due to sufficient potential and acceleration catalysts [1][6]. Core Views - Nongfu Spring is positioned as a leading player in the beverage industry, with a strong brand and solid channel foundation. The company is expected to achieve steady growth in the long term, particularly in the packaging water and sugar-free tea segments [6][3]. - The report anticipates that the company's market share in packaging water will steadily increase, driven by the high-frequency demand for drinking water and the rising packaging rate in China [6][3]. - The sugar-free tea segment, represented by the "Oriental Leaf" brand, is expected to benefit from the health trend and has significant growth potential, with the company's market share remaining stable at over 70% [6][3]. - The report highlights the company's proactive marketing strategies and product matrix expansion, which are expected to enhance sales performance during the peak season [6][3]. Financial Summary - Main revenue projections for Nongfu Spring are as follows: - 2024: 42,896 million - 2025E: 49,356 million (15.1% YoY growth) - 2026E: 55,196 million (11.8% YoY growth) - 2027E: 60,933 million (10.4% YoY growth) [2][3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 12,123 million in 2024 to 17,932 million in 2027, with corresponding YoY growth rates of 0.4%, 17.2%, 13.5%, and 11.3% [2][3]. - The report maintains EPS forecasts of 1.26, 1.43, and 1.59 for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 28, 25, and 23 [6][3]. Target Price - The target price for Nongfu Spring is set at 48 HKD, with the current price at 38.9 HKD, indicating a potential upside [3][6].