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这个被市场遗落的板块,偷偷跑出了历史新高
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-25 03:59
Group 1: Debt Resolution Process - The government has initiated a new round of large-scale debt resolution, focusing on addressing hidden debts and overdue payments to enterprises, with a heightened emphasis on resolving these issues in 2024 [1][4]. - The solid waste treatment industry is one of the main beneficiaries of the "debt resolution trend" [2]. Group 2: Financial Status of the Solid Waste Industry - The overall asset-liability ratio of the solid waste industry has been on a downward trend since 2021, although there was a slight increase in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year [5]. - The accounts receivable turnover rate has been gradually declining since 2021, with a further decrease noted in the first half of 2025 [5][7]. - The solid waste treatment industry has transitioned from rapid growth to a more stable phase, with accounts receivable growth rates significantly outpacing revenue growth rates [7][11]. Group 3: Cash Flow and Investment - The overall cash flow of the industry has improved, with 2024 expected to be the first year where operating cash flow covers investment cash flow, indicating a shift towards net debt repayment [8][10]. - The improvement in operating cash flow is partly attributed to the ongoing debt resolution actions [10][11]. Group 4: Individual Company Analysis - Hanlan Environment - Hanlan Environment, a key player in waste treatment, generates revenue primarily from waste incineration electricity and related subsidies, with government contracts determining processing fees [12][16]. - The company's accounts receivable increased significantly from 1.731 billion to 4.252 billion from 2021 to 2025, with a notable impact from the consolidation of Yuefeng Environmental [16][19]. - The structure of accounts receivable shows a concerning trend, with a significant portion being overdue, indicating challenges in cash collection [19][21]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The solid waste industry is expected to see substantial improvements in cash flow due to the government's focus on debt resolution and financial support through special bonds [24]. - Historically, the dividend payout ratio in the solid waste industry has been below 30%, but there is potential for an increase in dividends, which could lead to stock price revaluation opportunities [24].
产业债发行十一年复盘
CMS· 2025-07-03 03:33
2024 年,全市场非金融产业债发行规模 76266 万元,较 2023 年增长 22%,且 为历史新高。从历年发债规模走势来看,2014 年-2016 年产业债发行规模增长 较快。2017 年监管政策相对收紧,产业债发行规模大幅回落。2018 年以来维 持震荡增长。另一方面,2024 年产业债净融资规模 16600 亿元,为历史次高, 仅低于2015年的19305亿元。2014年以来,产业债仅在2017年和2021年-2023 年两个周期内净融资为负值,均为融资政策相对较严的政策区间。 二、2024 年以来产业债发行期限整体延长 2014 年至 2016 年,产业债加权平均发行期限分别为 2.11 年、1.98 年和 2.1 年, 但随着 2017 年融资环境收紧,产业债发行期限也随之缩短。2017 年至 2023 年,产业债加权平均发行期限均在 2 年以内,其中 2021 年达到最低值 1.54 年。 但随着 2023 年"一揽子化债"启动和债市持续走牛,2024 年和 2025 年 1-5 月,产业债加权平均发行期限分别达到 3.09 年和 3.29 年,增长幅度较大。 三、近年来产业债平均发行成本持续 ...