证 券 研 究 报 告 网上申购薄利多销，上调全年新股发行数量 ——2026年北交所新股申购2月报 证券分析师：刘靖 A0230512070005 研究支持： 吕靖华 A0230124070002 2026.03.03 主要内容 ◼ 融资&审核 ◼ 申购&发行 ◼ 上市&收益 (1) 2月3只新股上市，首日涨幅中值+142.31%，爱得科技/海圣医疗/通宝光电首日涨幅为+202.96%/+142.31%/+82.12%。 (2) 单只新股顶格申购收益率，新股爱得科技/海圣医疗/通宝光电为+0.061%/+0.028%/+0.029%。 (3) 2025年北交所新股 申购收益率累计+3.31%，26年1-2月新股申购收益率累计+0.53%（注：按首日均价计算涨幅，不考虑产品现金冗余）。 ◼ 2026年新股申购收益及收益率预测 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 (1) 2026年2月北交所发行新股6只，募资金额16.35亿；2026年1-2月累计发行新股11只，合计募资金额34.14亿。 (2) 2月6家企业上会通过、环比-4家，平均审核周期251天；2家企业终止；6家企业注册；无新增受理 ...

Financing & Review - In January 2026, the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) issued 5 new stocks, raising a total of 1.779 billion yuan[5] - The average review cycle for companies was 251 days, with 10 companies passing the review, a decrease of 3 from the previous month[5] - As of January 2026, there are 24 companies that have passed the review but have not yet registered, aiming to raise 8.127 billion yuan[5] Subscription & Issuance - The median first-day price increase for the 5 new stocks listed in January was +186.93%, with individual increases of +367.92%, +204.40%, +186.93%, +178.00%, and +105.63%[3] - The cumulative subscription yield for new stocks in January 2026 was +0.42%, while the cumulative yield for 2025 was +3.31%[3] - The average maximum subscription amount for new stocks in January was 16.01 million yuan, with a median freezing fund range of 828.08 billion to 1,058.86 billion yuan[5] Market Trends & Predictions - The BSE is entering a phase of accelerated expansion, with a neutral expectation of 40 new stock issuances in 2026, potentially raising a total of 11.625 billion yuan[5] - The expected first-day price increase for directly priced new stocks is projected at 300%, with various scenarios considered[5] - The anticipated online subscription yield for maximum subscriptions is estimated at 366,100 yuan, with varying yields based on different investment amounts[5] Investment Analysis - Investors are encouraged to actively monitor new stock subscription opportunities on the BSE, as the increase in issuance volume is expected to offset concerns about reduced first-day premiums[5] - The report highlights the potential for significant returns from inquiry-based issuances, particularly for high-profile companies currently under review[5] - Risks include slower-than-expected issuance rates and potential changes in the BSE's new stock issuance system[5]

Financing & Review - In December 2025, the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) issued 2 new stocks, raising a total of 604 million yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 25 stocks throughout the year, amounting to 7.309 billion yuan[5] - 13 companies passed the review in December, an increase of 3 from the previous month, while 3 companies were terminated, and 7 companies were registered, with 53 new companies accepted for review[5] Subscription & Issuance - The median first-day increase for the 3 new stocks listed in December was +364.67%, with individual increases of +966.54%, +364.67%, and +209.92% for the respective stocks[3] - The cumulative return rate for new stock subscriptions in 2024 was +4.33%, while the return rate for 2025 (January to December) was +3.31%[3] Market Trends & Predictions - The median price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for new stock issuances in December was 10x, a decrease of 11.62% from the previous month[5] - The expected average subscription amount for new stocks is set at 1.359 million yuan, with a median subscription rate of 0.03%[5] Investment Insights - The total fundraising amount for new stocks in 2025 was 7.309 billion yuan, with a top subscription yield increase of 45.98 thousand yuan and a yield increase of +3.31%[5] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality expansion opportunities in 2026, with a significant increase in the review speed and a backlog of approximately 30 companies awaiting issuance[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected issuance speed at the BSE, lower-than-expected stock price increases, changes in the new stock issuance system, and rapid growth in new stock subscription accounts[5]

Group 1 - The report clarifies the impact of the current new share allocation rules at the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) and explores the costs and benefits for investors under a hypothetical market value allocation scenario [4] - The existing new share subscription method at BSE uses "full prepayment + proportional allocation," where the allocation depends entirely on the amount of funds paid by investors, ensuring certainty in new share allocation [11][12] - As market enthusiasm increases, nearly one trillion yuan in frozen funds disrupts the interest rate market, and the allocation threshold gradually rises, concentrating new share allocations among a few cash managers, indicating a need for "market value allocation" reform in the long term [4][20] Group 2 - The historical evolution of China's new share allocation system shows that the market value allocation system has a mature framework, positively impacting small investors in the secondary market by linking the secondary market with new share subscriptions [4][36] - Under the market value allocation scenario, online investors' subscription limits are linked to their market value, making it a more inclusive market for small shareholders, with a cost threshold of approximately 200,000 to 300,000 yuan to meet the subscription cap for most companies under review [4][36] - The expected absolute increase in single subscriptions for new shares at BSE is about 23,000 yuan, with a market value threshold of only 10,000 yuan, making it attractive for small investors [4][36] Group 3 - The report suggests that if the BSE adopts market value allocation, it should consider restarting offline inquiries to reduce potential volatility from market value thresholds and attract long-term funds, particularly for cutting-edge technology companies [4][36] - The report highlights that the current market value allocation system could lead to a significant increase in the scale of market value base for online investors, potentially reaching 1 trillion yuan if the number of online accounts increases by 1 million, each with a 100,000 yuan base [4][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued and low-volatility stocks if the BSE implements market value allocation, as historical data shows that the cancellation of the prepayment system attracted many investors, leading to a shift towards large-cap value stocks [4][36]

Financing & Review - In November 2025, the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) issued 4 new stocks, raising a total of 0.822 billion yuan[5] - From January to November 2025, a total of 23 new stocks were issued, with a cumulative fundraising amount of 6.705 billion yuan[5] - As of now, there are 16 companies that have passed the review but not yet registered, aiming to raise 5.290 billion yuan[5] Subscription & Issuance - In November, 10 companies passed the review, an increase of 8 compared to the previous month[5] - The median price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for newly issued stocks in November was 12 times, up 18.92% month-on-month[5] - The average top subscription amount was 9.24 million yuan, with a median frozen fund range of 649.96 billion to 867.58 billion yuan[5] Listing & Returns - Five new stocks were listed in November, with a median first-day increase of 337.15%[3] - The theoretical subscription yield for individual new stocks ranged from 0.048% to 0.095%[3] - The cumulative yield for new stock subscriptions from January to November 2024 was 4.01%, while for 2025 it was 2.33%[3] Investment Analysis - The current pace of new stock issuance is perceived as slower than expected, with a total of 40 new stocks projected for the year[6] - The market is expected to stabilize in the short term, which may help realize the spring market trend[6] - Investors are advised to focus on two key institutional variables: market capitalization allocation and the potential restart of inquiry pricing mechanisms[6]

Financing & Review - In October 2025, the North Exchange issued 3 new stocks, raising a total of 668 million yuan; from January to October 2025, a total of 19 new stocks were issued, raising 5.834 billion yuan[5] - As of now, there are 10 companies that have passed the review but have not registered, with a proposed fundraising amount of 3.220 billion yuan; 2 companies have registered but not issued, with a proposed fundraising amount of 461 million yuan[5] Subscription & Issuance - The median first-day increase for the 3 new stocks listed in October was +281.31%, with individual increases of +347.50%, +281.31%, and +180.26% for Aomeisen, Changjiang Nengke, and Taikai Ying respectively; there were no first-day declines for new stocks from January to October[3] - The theoretical subscription yield for individual new stocks Aomeisen, Changjiang Nengke, and Taikai Ying was +0.077%, +0.059%, and +0.070% respectively[3] Market Trends & Predictions - The cumulative subscription yield for new stocks on the North Exchange in 2024 was +4.01%, while the cumulative theoretical yield from January to October 2025 was +1.96%[3] - The average top subscription amount in October was 10.03 million yuan, with a median frozen fund range of 613.017 to 772.537 billion yuan[5] Investment Analysis - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has indicated a normalization of the issuance and listing process, with expectations for 40 new stocks to be issued throughout the year, potentially increasing annual subscription yields by over 3 percentage points[6] - The average lock-up period for institutions that have released shares is 8 months, with an overall yield of +254.8% and a success rate of 100%[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected issuance speed on the North Exchange, lower-than-expected stock price increases, macroeconomic downturns, and rapid growth in new stock subscription accounts[6]

Financing & Review - In September 2025, the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) issued 4 new stocks, raising a total of CNY 1.089 billion; from January to September 2025, a total of 16 new stocks were issued, raising CNY 5.027 billion[5] - As of the end of September, there are 9 companies that have passed the review but not yet registered, with a proposed fundraising of CNY 2.588 billion; 6 companies have been registered but not yet issued, with a proposed fundraising of CNY 1.210 billion[5] Subscription & Issuance - The median first-day increase for the 3 new stocks listed in September was +304.65%, with individual increases of +736.78%, +304.65%, and +120.34% for Sanxie Electric, Shichang Co., and Jinhua New Materials respectively[3] - The theoretical subscription yield for the new stocks Sanxie Electric, Shichang Co., and Jinhua New Materials was +0.165%, +0.076%, and +0.080% respectively[3] Market Trends & Predictions - The cumulative yield for new stock subscriptions in 2024 is +4.01% (23 new stocks issued), while the cumulative theoretical yield for new stock subscriptions from January to September 2025 is +1.75% (14 new stocks issued)[3] - The average top subscription amount in September 2025 was CNY 12.93 million, with a median capital freeze range of CNY 649.59 billion to CNY 851.19 billion[5] Investment Analysis - The BSE is expected to maintain a regular issuance pace, with 7 companies registered and 4 approved in September; the outlook suggests a weekly issuance rhythm is likely to continue[6] - There are currently 15 companies that have passed the review and are awaiting issuance, indicating a rich pipeline of quality projects[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected issuance speed, lower-than-expected stock price increases, macroeconomic downturns, and rapid growth in new stock subscription accounts[6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming issuance of Danna Biology is expected to attract significant interest, with predictions indicating a high likelihood of successful subscription due to favorable market conditions. Group 1: Upcoming Issuance - Danna Biology plans to publicly issue up to 8 million shares, with an estimated 760,000 shares available for online subscription after accounting for strategic placement and overallotment options [3][5] - The estimated fundraising target for Danna Biology is approximately 137 million yuan, leading to a predicted issue price of around 17.1 yuan per share [3][5] - The top subscription amount is calculated to be approximately 649.8 million yuan, which is slightly higher than a previous issuance, indicating limited capacity for large investments [3][5] Group 2: Market Context - Other companies such as Taikai Ying, Changjiang Nengke, and Beikang Testing have also successfully registered for upcoming issuances, suggesting a trend of frequent new offerings in the market [2][6] - The current market environment is characterized by a high level of interest in new stock offerings, with expectations of one to two new issuances per week [2][6] Group 3: Subscription Dynamics - The subscription dynamics indicate that only investors with significant capital, estimated at over 493.85 billion yuan, will be able to secure a full allocation of shares, while others may only receive fractional shares [5][6] - The competitive nature of the subscription process suggests that investors need to position themselves strategically to secure shares, with a minimum investment threshold of approximately 649.8 million yuan to access full shares [4][5]

Financing & Review - In August 2025, 5 new stocks were issued on the North Exchange, raising a total of 1.22 billion yuan[6] - Cumulatively, 12 new stocks were issued from January to August 2025, with total fundraising amounting to 3.739 billion yuan[6] - As of the end of August, there are 13 companies that have passed the review but not yet registered, with a proposed fundraising of 2.610 billion yuan[6] Subscription & Issuance - The median first-day increase for the 5 new stocks listed in August was +271.09%, with individual increases of +369.54%, +340.71%, +271.09%, +263.98%, and +203.94%[4] - The theoretical subscription yield for individual new stocks in August ranged from +0.066% to +0.128%[4] - The cumulative theoretical yield for new stock subscriptions from January to August 2025 increased by +1.42%[4] Market Trends & Predictions - The average top subscription amount in August was 11.60 million yuan, with a median freezing fund range of 564.54 billion to 740.83 billion yuan[6] - The expected annual issuance of new stocks is estimated at 30, with a total fundraising of 7.5 billion yuan under a neutral assumption[7] - The anticipated first-day price increase for new stocks is projected at 300%, with various scenarios considered[7] Investment Analysis - The North Exchange is entering a normalized issuance period, with subscription yields appearing attractive[7] - The average yield increase for 5 new stocks listed in August is +0.11%, suggesting a potential annualized yield increase of +3.31% if 30 stocks are issued[7] - The North Exchange's strategic investment opportunities are highlighted, particularly in the context of the recent expansion of strategic placement investors[7]

Group 1: New Stock Issuance and Performance - In July 2025, the North Exchange issued 2 new stocks, raising a total of 492 million yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 7 stocks and a total fundraising of 2.485 billion yuan from January to July 2025[5] - The first-day price increase for Dingjia Precision was 459.51%, with a theoretical subscription yield of +0.138%[3] - The cumulative yield for new stock subscriptions in 2024 was +3.99%, while for January to July 2025, it was +0.86%[3] Group 2: Subscription Trends and Market Dynamics - The median first-day price-to-earnings ratio (PEttm) for new stocks in July 2025 was 12x, up 90% from the previous month[5] - The median amount of frozen funds for new stock subscriptions was 621.68 billion yuan, an increase of 12.51% month-on-month, with a median online winning rate of 0.04%[5] - The number of effective subscription accounts for Dingjia Precision reached 659,600, a 14.24% increase from the previous issuance[5] Group 3: Future Projections and Risks - The forecast for new stock issuance in 2025 is set at 30 stocks, assuming a steady pace of one issuance per week[5] - The expected first-day price increase for new stocks is projected at 300%, with a neutral expectation for the online winning rate at 0.038%[5] - Risks include slower-than-expected issuance speed, lower-than-expected price increases, and potential macroeconomic downturns[5]