截至2025年8月，南向资金在港股市场累计净买入额超过4.6万亿港元，南向资金对港股定价权的掌控持 续增强，并成为主导力量。其背后原因包括投资者多元化的配置需求，以及港股相对低的估值所产生的 吸引力。 与此同时，不妨看看北向通的资金规模。上半年，流向内地市场的北向资金也有大幅增长：债券交易方 面，北向通平均每日成交金额为459亿元人民币，去年同期为445亿元人民币，同比增长3%，创下新 高；股票交易方面，北向资金日均成交额为1731.4亿元人民币，去年同期为1302亿元人民币，同比增长 32%。由此可见，北向通和南向通已然形成了良性互动。 港交所8月20日公布2025年上半年财报，营收及净利润均创历史新高。报告期内，港交所实现营收 140.76亿港元，同比增长32.53%；主营业务收入129.54亿港元，同比增长33.68%，存管费用及保证金规 模增加令投资收益净额上升;EBITDA（指扣除利息支出及其他融资成本、税项、折旧及摊销前的盈利， 不包括合并报表之外的业绩）利润率为79%，同比增长6%；股东应占盈利（净利润减去少数股东权益 后的部分）85.19亿港元，同比增长39.09%，基本每股盈利6.74港元， ...

Core Insights - Northbound capital trading volume reached 310.436 billion yuan on August 15, marking the first time this year it surpassed 300 billion yuan and setting a new high since October 10, 2024 [1] - This week, northbound capital trading volume has increased for five consecutive days, with Shanghai Stock Connect trading volume at 161.297 billion yuan, also a new high since October 10, 2024, and Shenzhen Stock Connect trading volume at 149.139 billion yuan [1] - Notable stocks in terms of trading activity include CITIC Securities, which saw northbound capital trading volume exceed 2.8 billion yuan, ranking first in Shanghai Stock Connect for the first time this year; and internet brokerage leader East Money (300059), with northbound capital trading volume exceeding 4.3 billion yuan, topping the active stock list for northbound capital for the first time this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The northbound capital's ETF trading volume today is 2.778 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 813 million yuan compared to the previous day, accounting for 1.43% of the total northbound capital trading volume today [1] Summary by Category Northbound Capital ETF Trading - Today's total northbound capital ETF trading volume is 2.778 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Stock Connect ETF trading volume is 1.915 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Stock Connect ETF trading volume is 862 million yuan [1]

Overall Market Situation - Institutions appeared on the leaderboard for 32 stocks, with a net sell of over 62 million, indicating a cautious overall sentiment despite buying 18 stocks and selling 14 [3] - The stock with the highest net buying by institutions was Xizang Tianlu, which rose nearly 4% with a turnover rate of almost 40%, but overall funds saw a net outflow of 440 million, suggesting caution for retail investors [3][4] Key Stocks Analysis - Yingweike saw a limit-up with a turnover rate of just over 9%, where institutions net bought over 84 million, and deep stock connections bought 209 million, indicating strong support from multiple funding sources [3] - Dongxin Co. rose 17% with institutions net buying over 56 million, but overall funds had a net outflow of 478 million, suggesting profit-taking despite initial interest [4] - Beifang Changlong had a turnover rate of 50% with institutions net selling 114 million, indicating a potential over-speculation and a warning for retail investors [4] - Hengbao Co. had a turnover rate of 30% with institutions net selling 114 million, suggesting a withdrawal of large funds while retail investors were still buying [4] Fund Flow Insights - Weichai Heavy Industry experienced a volatility of nearly 20% with institutions net selling over 81 million, indicating a lack of confidence from large funds [5] - The deep stock connection bought over 200 million in Yingweike, aligning with institutional actions, while selling in Weichai Heavy Industry and Hengbao Co. indicated a consistent bearish sentiment [5] Institutional Buying Patterns - Historical data shows that stocks with institutional net buying have less than a 50% chance of rising the next day, and only a 39% chance of rising three days later, suggesting that retail investors should not rely solely on single-day buying signals [5][6] - Among the stocks bought by institutions, five released half-year forecasts, with Xiamen Xinda showing a net profit of -56 million, reflecting a low base for growth and caution against interpreting it as a positive signal [5] Conclusion - Retail investors should not only focus on "how much institutions bought" or "how much northbound sold," but also consider turnover rates, fund flows, and the consistency of actions between institutions and northbound funds [6] - The real opportunities lie in stocks with sustained funding interest and solid fundamentals, rather than reacting to short-term fluctuations [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Panoramic Daily Report 2025/7/22 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - A total of 1,540 A-share listed companies disclosed their semi-annual performance forecasts for 2025 as of July 18, 2025, with 674 companies expecting good news, a pre - happy ratio of about 43.77% [2] - On July 21, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus loan prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged from the previous month [2] - A - share major indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.61%. The trading volume of the two markets increased for four consecutive trading days [2] - The real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of trade - in for social retail sales has weakened, but the loose monetary policy has shown results in financial data, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators [2] - As the Politburo meeting at the end of July approaches, market bulls may make early arrangements, and stock indices still have long - term upward potential. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts' main and sub - main contracts all showed upward trends in price changes compared to the previous period [2] - The spreads between different contracts such as IC - IF, IF - IH, etc. also had corresponding changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in futures contracts mostly decreased, such as IH with a decrease of 1,666.0 and IF with a decrease of 518.0 [2] Basis and Market Sentiment Data - The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased compared to the previous period [2] - The margin trading balance increased by 1,338.16 billion yuan, and the A - share trading volume increased by 155.82 billion yuan [2] - The reverse repurchase operation volume increased by 140.75 billion yuan, and the north - bound trading volume increased by 2,148.0 [2] - The MLF net injection decreased by 465.57 billion yuan [2] Option and Volatility Data - The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2508) increased by 18.40, and its implied volatility increased by 0.26% [2] - The closing price of the IO at - the - money put option (2508) decreased by 19.20, and its implied volatility increased by 0.26% [2] - The 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.42%, and the trading volume PCR increased by 1.67% [2] - The position PCR increased by 5.72% [2] Technical and Market Analysis Data - The Wind market strength of all A - shares decreased by 1.50, and the technical aspect decreased by 2.60 [2] - The capital aspect decreased by 0.30 [2] Key Events to Watch - On July 24, 15:15 - 16:30, the preliminary SPGI manufacturing PMI values for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK in July will be released [3] - On July 24, 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision [3] - On July 24, 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 19 will be released, and at 21:45, the preliminary SPGI manufacturing PMI value for the US in July will be released [3] - On July 27, 9:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for June will be released [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.87%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly, and over 4,000 stocks rose. Industry sectors generally increased, with building materials, building decoration, and steel sectors strengthening significantly while bank stocks fell against the market [2]. - In the domestic economic fundamentals, the Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year-on-year, meeting market expectations. However, the growth rates of social retail sales and fixed - asset investment declined significantly, and the real estate market continued to decline. Exports improved due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations. In financial data, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 in June accelerated compared to May, with the M1 growth rate rising significantly and the M2 - M1 gap narrowing, indicating improved investment and consumption willingness of residents and enterprises [2]. - The LPR quotes in July remained unchanged. The Q2 GDP meeting expectations alleviated the urgency of LPR cuts. The profit performance of listed companies that have announced semi - annual performance forecasts is differentiated. Overall, the real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of the trade - in policy for social retail sales has weakened. However, the effectiveness of loose monetary policies has emerged, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. As the Politburo meeting approaches at the end of July, market bulls may pre - arrange, and stock indexes still have long - term upward potential. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) was at 4064.8 (+29.6), IH (2509) at 2771.2 (+8.0), IC (2509) at 6055.6 (+62.4), and IM (2509) at 6463.2 (+59.4). The prices of secondary contracts also increased [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts had various changes, such as the IF - IH spread up 17.8, the IC - IF spread up 32.0, etc. [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between quarterly and monthly contracts of different varieties had different trends, with some rising and some falling [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in IF decreased by 130.0 to - 28,974.00, while those in IH increased by 1811.0 to - 15,786.00. The net positions of the top 20 in IC and IM also increased [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, and the basis of corresponding futures contracts changed, mostly decreasing [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 17,271.35 billion yuan, up 1338.16 billion yuan. Margin trading balance decreased by 20.66 billion yuan to 19,023.36 billion yuan. Northbound trading volume increased by 99.31 billion yuan to 1946.21 billion yuan [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks was 73.92%, up 25.91 percentage points. Shibor was 1.366%, down 0.096 percentage points. The closing prices and implied volatilities of call and put options changed, and the 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index increased [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares, technical, and capital indicators in the Wind analysis showed upward trends, with increases of 1.50, 2.60, and 0.50 respectively [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of July 18, 1540 A - share listed companies announced 2025 semi - annual performance forecasts, with 674 pre - optimistic, a pre - optimistic ratio of about 43.77% [2]. - On July 21, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Key economic data and events to watch include the July SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary values of France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK on July 24, the European Central Bank interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims, and the US July SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value, as well as China's June industrial enterprise profits on July 27 [3].

Core Insights - The average daily trading volume of northbound funds in the first half of the year increased by 14% compared to last year, with a significant focus on the power equipment sector, which remains the largest holding sector [1][8][18]. Summary by Category Northbound Fund Holdings - The current market value of northbound funds is 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 532 billion yuan (2.4%) from the end of the first quarter and an increase of 855 billion yuan (3.9%) from the end of last year [4][5]. - The number of shares held by northbound funds is 1.235 billion, up by 38 million shares (3.2%) from the end of the first quarter and up by 3 million shares (0.2%) from the end of last year [6][7]. Sector Performance - The banking, automotive, and electronics sectors saw significant increases in northbound fund holdings, while the household appliances, public utilities, and food and beverage sectors experienced substantial declines [10][11][18]. - The top sectors by market value of northbound fund holdings are as follows: - Power Equipment: 2,814.63 billion yuan - Banking: 2,541.68 billion yuan - Electronics: 2,330.23 billion yuan - Food and Beverage: 1,915.62 billion yuan [19][21]. Notable Stocks - In the first half of the year, stocks such as BYD, China Merchants Bank, and Northern Huachuang saw their northbound holdings increase by over 10 billion yuan [22]. - Conversely, stocks like Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, and Haier Smart Home experienced significant declines in their northbound holdings [23][26]. Quarterly Trends - In the second quarter, the banking, non-bank financial, and pharmaceutical sectors showed notable increases in northbound fund holdings, while the food and beverage, household appliances, and machinery sectors saw considerable declines [15][16]. - The top stocks with the largest increases in northbound holdings in the second quarter include Ningde Times, Hengrui Medicine, and Dongpeng Beverage [25]. Market Dynamics - The daily average trading volume of northbound funds reached 1,704 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a growth of 13.5% compared to the previous year's daily average of 1,501 billion yuan [8][9].

Group 1 - The concept of "Northbound funds" refers to international capital, primarily from Hong Kong and other regions, investing in China's A-share market, indicating a positive outlook on the market's investment value [1][3] - "Southbound funds" represent capital flowing from the A-share market to the Hong Kong market, allowing investors to access more internationalized companies and flexible trading rules [3][5] - The interaction between Northbound and Southbound funds reflects the connectivity between China's capital market and international markets, providing investors with more diverse investment opportunities [5][7] Group 2 - Northbound fund inflows bring additional capital and vitality to the A-share market, promoting its internationalization [7] - Southbound fund outflows enable A-share investors to engage with more mature and international markets, learning advanced investment concepts and methods [7] - Understanding and utilizing the flow of Northbound and Southbound funds can enhance investment strategies and broaden opportunities for investors [7]

Fund Flow Analysis - In May, Chinese stock funds experienced a mild outflow, with foreign long-only funds (LOs) seeing a withdrawal of $200 million, a significant decrease from the $5.3 billion outflow in April [1][3] - Passive funds saw a recovery with an inflow of $14 billion in May, compared to an outflow of $3.7 billion in April, while active funds continued to experience outflows of $1.5 billion [1][3] - Southbound capital inflow weakened, dropping to $6 billion in May from $21 billion in April, marking the lowest level since 2024 [1][14] Global Fund Allocation - The global fund's underweight position in Chinese stocks has slightly narrowed, with global funds underweight by 12 percentage points, Asia-Pacific funds by 15 percentage points, and emerging market funds by 30 percentage points [2] Sector and Stock Performance - Active fund managers increased their holdings in Consumer Durables & Apparel and Consumer Services, while reducing their positions in Capital Goods, Food Beverage & Tobacco, and Media & Entertainment [10] - The most increased stocks included Alibaba, BYD, Midea Group, and JD.com, while Tencent and Zijin Mining saw the most reductions [11] Local Fund Dynamics - Local passive funds tracking A-shares saw a significant outflow of $9 billion in May after a large inflow of $27 billion in April [12] - The cumulative outflow of overseas active funds since 2022 has approached levels seen in early March 2025, with cumulative active fund flows hitting historical lows since the end of 2022 [5] Short Selling Interest - As of May 31, short positions in offshore/Hong Kong stocks amounted to $900 million, primarily concentrated in the Financials and Real Estate sectors [20]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of restructuring the learning mindset in finance, advocating for a gradual approach to mastering complex concepts [1] - It suggests breaking down learning into a "knowledge tree" model, starting with foundational concepts and gradually extending to application scenarios [1] - The article highlights the value of using storytelling and practical simulations to visualize abstract financial formulas [1] Group 2 - It accepts the notion of "trial and error" as a valuable learning process in finance, encouraging the use of simulation trading to allow for mistakes [2] - The article stresses the importance of analyzing decision-making processes and learning from past investment failures to improve future strategies [2] - It promotes the idea that seemingly unrelated financial knowledge can have practical applications in everyday decision-making [2] Group 3 - The ultimate goal of financial learning is to develop "cognitive flexibility," enabling individuals to assess market conditions and risks calmly [2] - It encourages maintaining a humble "seeker" mindset rather than a "gambler" mentality to effectively navigate market volatility [2]